DONN McCLEAN: So, Air Force Blue then: (a) back or (b) lay at 1.8? (Please tick as appropriate.)
On the negative side, the Ballydoyle colt has never run over a mile before, and there are rain clouds hovering over Newmarket. That’s pretty much it, besides the fact that you have to include the unknown: his first run of the season, his first run since he won the Dewhurst Stakes last October.
That’s the thing about these youngsters as they embark on their three-year-old paths. We don’t know for sure how they have wintered, we don’t know by how much they have improved from two to three relative to their contemporaries. You expect them to progress during their third winter as they grow into their substantial frames, but it is impossible to quantify the magnitude – or the relative magnitude – of that progression until they race.
Seven of the 13 runners in tomorrow’s Qipco 2000 Guineas have not yet raced this season, and therein lies the glorious uncertainty of it all.
Air Force Blue (pictured) was a late foal, a May foal, so you expect that he has more potential for progression than most. It is almost seven months since we last saw him race, that’s seven months of maturing that we cannot quantify. He is not three years old yet, his real birthday is on Monday (please send cards to Air Force Blue, Ireland), so that’s 19% of his life’s worth of maturing that we cannot quantify for certain.
There are far more positives than negatives though, and even the negatives are tenuous. On the mile thing, he wasn’t stopping at the end of seven furlongs in the Dewhurst, and he is bred to get a mile at least, by War Front, a full-brother to Bugle, who has won over eight and a half and nine furlongs.
On the rain thing, when he won the Group 1 National Stakes at The Curragh last September, he raced on yielding ground. They were calling it good to soft at Newmarket on Friday, and that’s English for yielding. As long as those rainclouds to not burst and saturate the Rowley Mile, he should be fine on the ground.
Then you can allow the positives come tumbling forward. He progressed all the way through his juvenile career, from his maiden win at The Curragh on Irish 1000 Guineas day through his defeat in the Coventry Stakes on his second ever run at the hands of Buratino, to his revenge on Buratino in the Phoenix Stakes, to his National Stakes win, to his Dewhurst Stakes win. These races are the Guineas races.
And then there are the connections, Coolmore/O’Brien/Moore, and the accolades, Aidan O’Brien’s opinion of him (possibly the best ever), Joseph O’Brien’s opinion of him, Ryan Moore’s opinion of him, and these are men who know about these things.
And the reports, wintered well, happy as you could be with him, and the racecourse gallops, impressive, happy, on track for the Guineas. It is difficult to pick holes. It would be a brave click, that click on the lay button, even at a shade of odds-on.
So is there value anywhere outside of the favourite? There might be a little bit of value in the 13.0 at which you can back Marcel. That may under-estimate Peter Chaple-Hyam’s horse a little, especially now that the ground is set to ride on the easy side.
Marcel has been under-rated before, when he was sent off at 33/1 for the Racing Post Trophy last October. He was impressive in winning that day and, for all that the favourite Foundation did not enjoy a clear path, subsequent events suggest that the result may not have been any different if he had.
Foundation was beaten on his debut this season in the Craven Stakes, he could only finish a three-and-a-half-length second behind Stormy Antarctic. By contrast, Racing Post Trophy runner-up Johannes Vermeer went and won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on his final run last season, beating the same Stormy Antarctic by a head.
Of course, you can’t know by how much each horse has improved since the end of last season (see above), so comparative lines of form between the end of your juvenile year and the start of your three-year-old year have to be treated with a modicum of circumspection, but at least if gives us the parameters of the ballpark on which we might be able to play.
Stormy Antarctic could be a big player as well, especially if that rain cloud does burst, but that is all factored into his odds now of around 8.2. He is significantly shorter than Marcel.
Marcel hasn’t run since his Racing Post Trophy win, but that is not a negative, it was always the plan to go directly to the Guineas. And it was always the Guineas, not the Derby, despite the fact that the Racing Post Trophy is generally a Derby pointer, not a Guineas pointer, and despite the fact that the same Peter Chapple-Hyam won the Derby in 2007 with his 2006 Racing Post Trophy winner Authorized.
Marcel had a racecourse gallop before racing on Craven Stakes day at Newmarket under big-race rider Pat Smullen, and everybody appeared to be happy.
Paul Makin’s colt is bred for a mile, he is trained by a man who knows how to train big winners and he will be ridden by a man who knows how to ride them. The good to soft ground should be ideal for him and his draw in stall seven of 13, right in the middle of the middle, is ideal. It means that Smullen should be able to go wherever he likes in the race, track whomever he wants.
Marcel probably won’t beat Air Force Blue if Aidan O’Brien’s colt is the racehorse that he promises to be. However, on the evidence that we have to date, with the glorious uncertainty that is an inherent part of every 2000 Guineas, the Peter Chapple-Hyam colt probably shouldn’t be a 13.0 shot either.
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