U.S. OPEN: There’s something cathartic about watching the finest golfers in the world struggle to make pars, isn’t there? No tournament delivers more consistently in this regard than the U.S. Open, and perhaps no Open venue is more punishing than Oakmont Country Club, which will host the championship this week for the ninth time its storied history.
A par-70 that measures just over 7,200 yards, Oakmont is known for its tight fairways, impossibly thick rough, and slick, undulating greens. It’s the quintessential U.S. Open layout, a “fairways and greens” meat-grinder where par is always a good score and more than a few players are bound to embarrass themselves. The quotes have been pouring in this week, with Phil Mickelson saying it could be the toughest course he’s ever played and Daniel Berger, winner of the St. Jude Classic last week (recommended at 32.0!), taking to Twitter to vent about the “rough on steroids” that occasionally prevents him from advancing the ball even 10 yards. You can expect to hear more of that type of grousing as the week progresses, of course. The USGA wouldn’t be doing its job otherwise.
The last time the Open came to Oakmont, in 2007, the course was just as fearsome as promised, as Angel Cabrera’s 5-over par 285 was good enough for the victory and only six players finished the week better than plus-10. The forecast calls for sunshine this week, so we can expect firm and fast conditions and, in all likelihood, another bloodbath.
The usual suspects head BETDAQ’s Win Market, with world No. 1 Jason Day leading the way at 7.8, followed by Rory McIlroy (9.0) and Jordan Spieth (11.0). It’s hard to make a case against any one of those guys, but I’ve cast my lot with a different set this week. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Dustin Johnson (17.0)- Twice now Johnson has lost this tournament in heartbreaking fashion, and for many players that might be a difficult emotional barrier to overcome. Johnson doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who gets too emotionally invested, however. Fact is, he has a tremendous U.S. Open record and he’s been playing fantastic golf lately, shooting a final-round 63 in Memphis last Sunday to finish 5th just a week after his 3rd-place showing at The Memorial. That makes six top-5 finishes in his last nine starts (!), a remarkable stretch of golf that probably hasn’t received the attention it’s deserved (this is likely because there haven’t been any victories in that stretch). Johnson is a great driver of the golf ball, a trait that has always served him well in this tournament, and he currently ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.61), so he doesn’t have many bad days. Don’t be surprised if he gets the monkey off his back this week.
Charl Schwartzel (88.0)- Schwartzel is a world-class player who has proven himself under major-championship stress, so he’s the type who can be relied upon if he’s around the lead on Sunday. And being around the lead at the U.S. Open is something Scwartzel should be fairly used to by now considering he’s finished 16th or better in four of the last six editions of this tournament, including a 7th-place showing at Chambers Bay last year. His game has looked sharp lately, too, as he hasn’t shot worse than 72 in a competitive round since The Masters and comes in this week on the heels of back-to-back top-25 finishes, most recently placing 11th at The Memorial. He’s not a dominant player, but Schwartzel is careful, consistent, and unafraid of the moment. We’ve seen his type sneak off with the trophy before.
Bernd Wiesberger (440.0)- Wiesberger has developed a reputation as a player who has trouble translating his success on the European Tour to the worldwide stage, but all it takes to change that perception is one great week. And besides, it’s not like he’s never played well in the States– his 14th-place finish at the WGC-Cadillac Championship earlier this year was an impressive performance, and he had a decent week at The Masters that would’ve been spectacular had it not been for a 3rd-round 79. To truly establish himself, though, he needs to start contending in majors, and there’s reason to believe that Oakmont this week may be his coming out party. It’s a ball-striker’s course, there’s no doubt about that, and Wiesberger is both long off the tee and accurate with his irons, hitting over 70% of Greens in Regulation on the European Tour this season. His game is in good shape at the moment, with a 10th-place finish at the Lyoness Open last week following a 15th-place showing at the BMW PGA, but that evidently hasn’t been enough to draw much attention from the betting public. That’s a good thing, however, as a price like 440.0 makes Wiesberger a must-bet as far as I’m concerned.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Patrick Reed (1.91) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.95)
Koepka has been playing some great golf lately, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready for what he’s going to face this week. He’s prone to big numbers and there will certainly be plenty of opportunities for those, and his putting could be stressed to the breaking point on Oakmont’s notoriously severe greens. Reed strikes me as a little more prepared for a test like this, and he’s been playing pretty well himself, registering six top-10s in his last nine starts and finishing 8th at The Memorial two weeks ago. Recommendation: Reed at 1.91
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Danny Willett (1.91)
It’s been a whirlwind couple of months for Danny Willett but he’s held up remarkably well, contending for awhile at the Irish Open and then nearly winning the BMW PGA Championship before settling for third. But now asking him to fly back across the globe to tackle one of the toughest courses on the planet… is it a bit much? Can we really expect Willett at his best this week? I have my doubts. As far as Bubba goes, he’s been solid if unspectacular lately, making 10 of 11 cuts but finishing outside the top-25 in each of his past four starts. He knows his way around Oakmont though, finishing 5th the last time it hosted the Open (2007), and that’s good enough for me. Recommendation: Watson at 1.91
