SCOTTISH OPEN: While the eyes of the golfing world have begun to shift towards Troon, a quality appetizer is going to be served up this week in the form of the Scottish Open. This tournament was totally revitalized five years ago, when the powers that be made the inspired decision to move away from Loch Lomond, an American-style parkland course, and hold the event on the true links courses that Scotland is famous for. Not only has the move improved the tournament from the perspective of helping players get ready for the Open, but it’s made it more “authentic” and enjoyable for the fans as well.
Castle Stuart is the site of this year’s festivities, and based on what we saw from 2011-2013, when the course hosted this tournament for three consecutive years, birdies are going to be plentiful. Measuring just 7,200 yards and lacking any real trouble off the tee, Castle Stuart is an easy course by Tour standards if– and this is a big “if”– the weather cooperates. Like most links courses, it can be a lamb and a lion on the very same day depending on the wind and rain, and I’m sure tournament organizers are hoping that we get the lion for at least a day or two. If not, look out: Luke Donald got all the way to 19-under in his 2011 victory, and 17-under played off in both 2012 and 2013 (won by J.M. Singh and Phil Mickelson, respectively). The manageable length and wide-open nature of the course means the tee ball will be deemphasized this week, but Castle Stuart does feature some trickiness around the greens, and the three past champions all have one thing in common: great short games.
Henrik Stenson (10.0) heads BETDAQ’s Win Market, and that’s certainly understandable considering he just won the BMW International and finished third the last time the Scottish Open was held at Castle Stuart. His price is a little short for my liking, though, so I’ve decided to cast my lot with these three:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Shane Lowry (22.0)- Lowry suffered the expected post-U.S. Open hangover at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone, but he still managed rounds of 70-68 over the weekend so we can rest assured that his form is still intact. He’s certainly a more accomplished links player than most in the field and he’s shown an affinity for Castle Stuart, teeing it up all three years between 2011-13 and logging two top-15s. His putter in particular seems to come alive on the slower-rolling fescue greens, and inclement weather doesn’t seem to phase the Irishman, who has played hundreds of rounds in conditions that most Americans would say are not fit for golf. He’s one of the favorites this week for a reason, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if he’s the man left holding the trophy on Sunday evening.
Nicolas Colsaerts (47.0)- Though primarily known for his prodigious length off the tee, Colsaerts has been putting it all together lately with a run of six top-25 finishes in seven European Tour starts. He’ll be pounding his driver all over the wide-open Castle Stuart layout, and the course obviously suits his eye considering he finished 8th the last time he saw it (2013) and third back in 2011. While his putting can run hot and cold, Colsaerts is a good bet to dominate the course tee-to-green this week and could very well find himself at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. A good value at the current price.
Raphael Jacquelin (104.0)- While a missed cut in his home open last week is sure to throw some off the scent, Jacquelin played some beautiful golf in the month of June, following up his 8th-place finish at the Nordea Masters with a top-5 at the BMW International. A four-time winner on the European Tour, he’s a grizzled vet with a trusty putter and steely nerve. Most importantly, he has a fantastic record at Castle Stuart and has only gotten better each time he’s teed it up, as he followed a T49 in 2011 with a T16 in 2012 and an 8th-place showing in 2013. There’s a lot to like about Jacquelin this week, and at better than 100/1 I believe he’s the best value on the board.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rafael Cabrera-Bello (1.91) vs. Andy Sullivan (1.91)
Cabrera-Bello has played some great golf this year and he’s coming off an impressive week at the Open de France, where he finished 4th, but his record at Castle Stuart is simply awful: two missed cuts and a T47. Sullivan, meanwhile, has also shown some form lately, reeling off three straight top-25s and finishing just a shot behind Cabrera-Bello in France last week, but unlike the Spaniard he’s been reliable at Castle Stuart, breaking 70 in five of six competitive rounds and finding the top-20 in 2012. Recommendation: Sullivan at 1.91
Russell Knox (1.91) vs. Thongchai Jaidee (1.91)
Jaidee was dominant in France last week, opening with a 67 and cruising to a 4-shot victory. He’s not a particularly good links player, though, and his record at Castle Stuart doesn’t inspire much confidence: MC, T29, 66. Knox plays most of his golf in America but he grew up in Inverness and has shown an affinity for links golf, finishing 10th in this tournament last year when it was held at Gullane. A trusty fairways-and-greens type, Knox had made 9 of his last 10 cuts on the PGA Tour and has a pair of runner-up finishes since his breakthrough win at the HSBC Champions last November. Recommendation: Knox at 1.91
