DONN McCLEAN: The Stewards’ Cup looks fairly daunting at first glance. A full field of 28 horses spread rail-to-rail across Goodwood’s straight track, hurtling down the course in a Light Brigade simulation. Now pick the winner.
But scratch the surface and, turns out, perhaps not so daunting after all. Six of the last 13 winners were sent off at 6/1 or shorter, including one at 4/1 and one at 9/2. Also, only two of the last 14 winners were sent off at bigger than 14/1, and eight of the last 10 were from the top six in the betting. It is a race that is usually dominated by the fancied horses, the horses who are towards the top of the market. You shouldn’t look to far beyond the form horses.
The form horses this year? Orion’s Bow and Dancing Star, the two horses at the top of the market. The former has won his last five races, the latter has won three of her last four.
Orion’s Bow started his run at Newcastle in May, when he won a six-furlong handicap off a mark of 69. He then proceeded to win at Catterick, Thirsk and back at Newcastle, before going to Hamilton last time and winning the Scottish Stewards’ Cup by over three lengths off a mark of 97.
The handicapper raised him another 9lb for that but, because this is an early-closing race, he gets to race under a 6lb penalty instead, so he is 3lb well-in. More than that, however, he is a remarkably progressive horse this season as a five-year-old, a horse with whom the handicapper has yet to get to grips.
Dancing Star is also well-in, but just by 1lb. She was raised 7lb for winning a handicap at Newmarket last time, but she gets to race under just a 6lb penalty.
Andrew Balding’s filly was a little unlucky to get beaten by Mr Lupton at York in June, but she stepped forward again from that when she she won at Newmarket last time. She showed a nice turn of foot that day to beat Priceless by three parts of a length, with Mont Kiara back in fifth place, and those two went and finished second and first respectively in a Class 2 handicap back at Newmarket last Saturday.
This has been Dancing Star’s target since, even though her participation in the race was on the brink right up until the point at which declarations closed on Thursday morning. As it turned out, she just scraped into the race, number 28 of 28.
She is only three, and the 5lb allowance that she gets for her age almost knocked her out of the race. As things have turned out now, it was ideal race for her: she gets in off bottom weight of 8st 12lb, and she is potentially well-handicapped on that mark against her elders..
She is a seriously progressive filly, she has improved by 28lb on official ratings since she won at Salisbury on her debut this season, and signs are that she is not finished improving yet.
As well as that, she is one for one at Goodwood. She easily landed a fillies’ handicap there in early June, over today’s course and distance. Those two factors, together with her favourably low draw in stall four – Orion’s Bow is in 12 – may just tilt it in her favour. They are both similar prices but, of the pair, it may be that Andrew Balding’s filly will have the upper hand.
Of course, there is more to it than just two horses. Toofi was a progressive sprinter last season, he finished fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 102 on his final run of the season, and he has shaped with promise this term. Well beaten on his seasonal return at York in May – his first run for Robert Cowell – he ran well to finish eighth in the Wokingham on his last run, just four lengths behind the winner Outback Traveller, and ground that would have been softer than ideal for him.
That should have brought him forward for today, a race that his trainer has probably had in mind for him since the start of the season because, on his only run thus far at Goodwood, he finished second to Magical Memory (a three-year-old) in this race last year.
He should have his ground today all right, and we know that he handles the track, but his draw in stall 23 is a worry. You really haven’t wanted to be too close to the stands rail all week at Goodwood.
Ridge Ranger is interesting from stall two. Eric Alston’s filly put up the performance of her life in the Group 3 Summer Stakes two weeks ago at York, when she made all the running and came away again from Besharah inside the final furlong. She has Goodwood form too, she won a five-furlong handicap at this meeting last year on her only run at Goodwood, and she is another who is 1lb well-in.
Alben Star is also a player and Kimberella is in top form but, in a race in which it usually does not pay to look very far beyond the obvious, Dancing Star could be the answer.
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
