ANOTHER 5-1 WINNER AT YORK: Daqman landed two top-value winners at York yesterday, beating Pricewise 2-1 (that’s 3-2 overall at the Ebor meeting with one day left, and 68-30 for the season). His winners were:
WON 5-1 Barsanti
WON 15-8 Nemoralia
A 37-1 FIRST-RACE FORECAST: He also named Shakopee (2nd 8-1) in Barsanti’s race, worth a 37-1 forecast with Ladbrokes, and he had a frustrating runner-up for the second day running in Banksea (2nd 5-1). Best of the Fortune Cookies was Cotai Glory (4th 33-1), with winner, second and fourth in the Nunthorpe named in his short list of five.
THE FORCE BE WITH YOU IN THE EBOR: Daqman has a ton-up punt on a 23.0 outsider in the Ebor, and elsewhere has bets at 14.5, 14.0 and 11.0, challenging Pricewise in the 2.25, 2.50 snd 4.00 at York, and in the 2.30 and 3.40 Sandown
I’VE FALLEN FOR A THIRD CUMANI STAR
1.45 York Though I’ve remarked in this column how well three-year-olds are doing this year, they don’t win this, even though they’ve had the favourite four times in the last five years: in 2011 and 2012 (both unplaced), 2013 (second) and 2015 (fourth).
But have the fates been kind? Three three-year-olds are in low stalls today and, in five of the last six years, the winners have come from 2, 4, 9, 9, 10.
There’s a Mark Johnston in the one stall, so the low numbers seem likely to break away from those thrown out wide or dropped in behind.
The gate-one cowboy is Ode To Evening. Less than a length separated him from Stargazer and Scarlet Dragon when he tried to run them into the ground at Goodwood.
Scarlet Dragon has a chance of reversing the form at the revised weights, but Stargazer is out in the old chocolate factory, installed 19. Ode To Evening looks a trade horse at 14.5 on BETDAQ this morning, as likely to hang on in there. Remember, he was giving 19lb to the winner when just headed on the line at Goodwood.
Snoano is living off an amateur-riders’ win; Master Of Irony is a sulky sort; Erik the Red has found his 2015 success has overburdened him this season; and the years are catching up on others.
So my idea of the winner is Fallen for A Star for Luca Cumani, who is on a third-time-lucky run for me after Shakopee and Banksea both finished second at York this week.
Dark Red (9.0 in the orange) presents a tricky job from stall 13, but won’t mind the rain and completes my three against the field along with Fallen For A Star and Ode To Evening.
BETDAQ MORNING VALUE (108% overround): Fallen For A Star 14.0 win and place.
DIPLOMA TO LAND YORK HAT-TRICK PLOT
2.15 York (Strensall Stakes) Only one winner over the age of five in the decade but is this host of older horses all dead wood: can six aged seven and eight be beaten in a field of 10?
We saw yesterday when three came away from the field in Barsanti’s race that some of these heats don’t take a lot of winning. And the likely pacesetters are the young horses, Scottish and Countermeasure.
That leaves us with the three-year-old filly, Diploma, who is two out of two at York and suggests she is one of those late-developing Stoute types.
She’s already scored with cut in the ground and her second York win on the last day has been boosted by success for the runner-up: 4.3 in the BETDAQ orange.
The Diomed at Epsom suggests that the 2014 winner, Custom Cut, is not out of it today and can turn around the placings with Tullius.
Educate has never been able to hack the Pattern but Air Pilot has won Group-3s at Chantilly and The Curragh.
He’s held by Countermeasure on fast ground in a small field at York in July, but had Tullius and Custom Cut behind in the Spring.
2.30 Sandown Three-year-olds are 8-2 up over older horses in the decade, and the showers should help Epsom Icon, the only second-season animal here who has already won a Group race.
BETDAQ MORNING VALUE (106% overround): Epsom Icon 14.5 win and place
BLUEEYES SHINING AT 11.0 ON BETDAQ
2.50 York (Melrose Stakes) Pace-trackers on the inner have won this from stalls 1 (twice) and 3; otherwise the hold-up cavalry charges down the straight from the high stalls (gates 12-19 have won five).
Forth Bridge (in 3) and Regal Monarch (stall 7) are the likely lads to hurl them round the bends, and their 12.5 and 9.8 respectively this morning are offers which seemed certain to beat their odds during the race.
There is no reason on form why Shraaoh should not confirm Goodwood superiority over Jaameh, Emperoer Napoleon and Wall Of Fire. But Master Blueyes, who was sixth, was squeezed out making his run.
Master Blueyes is bred for a trip, is a York winner over q12f, and before Goodwood suffered from slow-run races.
But the stamina horses on pedigree are the Aidan O’Brien pair, Kellstorm (needs soft), brother to Order Of St George, and Unicorn, brother to Bondi Beach, both returning after long absences. Kellstrom seems to be the one ‘expected.’
And it seems to me that, since I don’t know the state of the ground from where I’m sitting over my cornflakes, I should give myself a couple of chances with different going preferences.
BETDAQ MORNING VALUE (105%): Kellstrom at 8.8, and Master Blueeyes at 11.0
3.40 Sandown Hug Palmer tries to do what Sir Michael Stoute did last year and win with a lightly-weighted three-year-old, the improving Baydar.
But Luca Cumani has had this as his target for Bermondsey, who look real value at 7.6, dropped back to the trip over which he won comfortably here at Sandown in June.
BETDAQ MORNING VALUE (107%): Bermondsey at 7.6
THE FORCE BE WITH YOU IN THE EBOR
4.00 York (Ebor Handicap) The Big-Race Trends man in the Racing Post must have had a drop of the Knavesmire Grog or suffered Newtonian sub-editing.
He declares that horses aged 4 or 6 are 8/9. In fact, in his nine-race check, they are 2/9, with five races to five-year-olds.
All bar two winners have come from the high third of the field in the decade (drawn 14-plus 8/10). Stalls 14-18 are 6/10.
Rain would be heartbreak to the firm-ground contingent but it would be Heartbreak City to the many Tony Martin punters who follow him in these big handicaps. Seems better than ever.
Hughie Morrison won’t mind it for Vent De Force, a Group-1 contender last season, who could be the blot on the handicap, as course-and-distance winner in the 2014 Melrose, the three-year-olds’ Ebor earlier on the card.
I won’t be plunging a on a filly low drawn (She Is No lady!) and Antiquarium may not confirm Newcastle form with Seamour if the ground is on the soft side.
Kinema who faded in the Goodwood Cup looks better suited to today’s trip. Shrewd is a CD winner this term but is up in class, and beats Sweamour and therefore Antiquarium if July form on the course is any guide.
BETDAQ MORNING VALUE (105%): Kinema at 11.0 and Vent De Force at 23.0
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated)
1.45 York
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 3.8pts win and place on each FALLEN FOR A STAR and ODE TO EVENING
2.15 York
BET 10pts win (nap) DIPLOMA
2.30 Sandown
BET 2.2pts win and place EPSOM ICON
2.50 York
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 6.4pts win KELLSTROM and 5pts win MISTER BLUEYES
3.40 Sandown
BET 4.75pts win BERMONDSEY
4.00 York
TON-UP BETS (to win 100): 10pts win KINEMA and 4.5pts win and place VENT DE FORCE (4.00 York)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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