U.S. OPEN: Are we experiencing a changing of the guard in professional tennis? On the men’s side, the so-called Big Four have combined to win 42 of the past 46 Grand Slam titles, but Roger Federer is home nursing an injury, Rafa Nadal is clearly past his prime and may not have any Majors left in him, and Novak Djokovic is coming off a disappointing summer that included a surprise early exit at Wimbledon and a first-round loss in Rio. Andy Murray has been playing brilliant tennis, but he’s had issues with consistency in the past and will remain in Djokovic’s shadow until he starts beating the Djoker in matches that matter– something he hasn’t done since the Wimbledon final back in 2013. Meanwhile, a crop of young talent has sprung up and may be ready to break through– guys like Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem, and Nick Kyrgios all have the ability to beat anyone on any given day.
On the women’s side, we’re nearing the end of an era. The Williams sisters have dominated women’s tennis for the past 15 years, racking up an astounding 29 combined Grand Slam singles titles and adding another 14 as the world’s best doubles team. Venus just turned 36, though, and is clearly in the twilight of her career, while Serena is nearing 35 and is beginning to show signs of slippage. She’s still the best in the world when she wants to be, but too often these days she seems out of shape and disinterested, and her tennis has been very spotty since her triumph at Wimbledon last month. Angelique Kerber has risen to become Williams’ top challenger and could soon overtake her in the world rankings, while youngsters like Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys, Belinda Bencic, and Elina Svitolina are all capable of winning multiple Grand Slams in the coming years.
So the stage is set for a wild two weeks at Flushing Meadows, where the sport gets its final close-up of the year at the U.S. Open. The action gets underway on Monday and BETDAQ will have markets for every match, of course, so opportunity abounds. And for some expert tips on trading tennis, be sure to check out out our Factors to Profit and our interview with expert trader Dan Weston (@tennisratings).
Not sure how Dan feels about these tips, but here’s where my money is going:
Recommendations to BACK (odds In parenthesis)
MEN’S DRAW
Novak Djokovic (2.52)- Okay, so maybe the first paragraph was a bit of a head fake. I do believe there’s a young crop of talent that’s ready to make some serious noise, but I don’t know if that “noise” includes beating a motivated Djokovic on his best surface. The Djoker owns a remarkable 57-9 career record at Flushing Meadows and has advanced to the semifinals or further in each of the past nine years, a stretch that includes six appearances in the final and two titles. His performance in Rio was certainly disappointing, but let’s not act as if Djokovic is in the midst of some major slump– he won last month’s Rogers Cup, his last “proper” tournament, without dropping a set, and his singles record now stands at 51-5 on the year. That’s not too shabby. Plus, he’s proven time and again that when the chips are down he’s simply better than Andy Murray, his clear rival and biggest threat. Murray has only beaten Djokovic twice in their past 15 meetings.
Gael Monfils (86.0)- Picking a true outsider in men’s tennis is always a bit difficult because the sport is so top-heavy, but if you’re looking for long odds you could do a lot worse that Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has been playing some terrific tennis of late, winning 14 of his last 17 singles matches and taking home the title at last month’s Citi Open. He doesn’t have a great U.S. Open record but he’s advanced to the Quarters a couple of times, most recently in 2014. Most importantly, he has a friendly draw– Nadal, who is nursing a wrist injury and is eminently beatable these days, is the top seed in his bracket, while Milos Raonic, seeded right behind Nadal, lost to Monfils in Toronto last month. If things break right we may see Monfils make his deepest U.S. Open run yet, making him worth a bet at a price like 86.0.
WOMEN’S DRAW
Angelique Kerber (9.2)- Don’t look now, but Angelique Kerber is nipping at Serena’s heels and could overtake her as the world’s No. 1 player with a win here. And there’s nothing fluky about it– the 28-year old Kerber is playing the best tennis of her career, rattling off 19 wins in her past 22 singles matches and advancing to the Semifinals or further in four of her last five tournaments. She’s at her best on hard courts, as she proved by winning the Australian Open earlier this year (beating Serena in the final), so she should be right in her comfort zone at Flushing Meadows, and her draw is favorable. Can she handle the expectations and pressure that go along with being one of the favorites? She’s certainly taken it all in stride over the past few months as she’s risen up the rankings, and unlike her competitors she’s both fully healthy and in great form. Betting on anyone other than Serena to win Grand Slams is always a bit risky, but Kerber is a good value at better than 8/1.
Petra Kvitova (34.0)- Finally healthy after a rough couple of years, Petra Kvitova is one to watch over these next two weeks. The two-time Wimbledon winner has certainly proved her mettle under pressure, and after winning a bronze medal in Rio she appears to be nearing top form again. She made the deepest U.S. Open run of her career last year and she’s had success against the two women at the top of the draw, as she currently holds a two-match winning streak against Serena and has split eight career matches with Kerber. This isn’t her best surface, but Kvitova is a real threat this week nonetheless and should be backed enthusiastically at the current price.
