NFL WEEK 3: A Week 2 that featured several down-to-the-wire finishes ended on a painful note for me and my fellow Indianapolis bettors, as a late defensive touchdown from Denver delivered the season’s first truly bad beat and ruined what would have been a profitable Sunday. A gut punch like that can have a cleansing effect, though, and we now turn our attention to a Week 3 slate that is rife with opportunity.
Thursday night brings us one of the week’s best games, as the 2-0 Houston Texans travel to Foxboro to face a New England team that will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (NE -1, 40.5). The Pats didn’t miss a beat when Jimmy Garoppolo was under center, but a rookie making his first career NFL start is a different situation entirely. This is particularly true when the opponent is a stout Houston defense and the game’s preeminent defensive player, J.J. Watt.
Here are my favorite games of this Week 3:
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (Mia -9.5, 42)
Recommendation: Miami -9.5
Both of these teams are 0-2, but they’re different kinds of 0-2. The Dolphins nearly upset Seattle in Week 1 and then almost dug themselves out of a deep hole in New England last week, as Ryan Tannehill threw for 389 yards against a talented Patriots secondary. The Browns, meanwhile, followed up their 29-10 loss to Philadelphia in Week 1 with a bona-fide meltdown last Sunday, blowing an 18-point lead thanks to a leaky defense and an injured quarterback.
Oh, and speaking of that injured quarterback— Josh McCown won’t be able to play this week, so rookie Cody Kessler will see his first NFL action on the road in steamy Miami. For those keeping track, that’s five starting quarterbacks in the last five regular-season games for Cleveland (!!), which pretty much says it all about the current state of the franchise. The Dolphins have a golden opportunity to take out some frustration here… this one should be an old-fashioned curb-stomping.
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (Ten -1.5, 47)
Recommendation: Tennessee -1.5
The Raiders are a statistical oddity: first in the league in total offense, last in total defense. A lot of that has to do with their opposition, of course (New Orleans, Atlanta), but after watching them play it’s clear that their offense is going to continue to produce. It’s equally clear that they have big, big problems on the defensive side of the ball.
Tennessee has a better offense than people realize— Marcus Mariota is an excellent young quarterback, and the DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry backfield tandem has been productive thus far— and I have a hunch we’ll see that offense look a lot more explosive on Sunday than they were against the likes of Minnesota and Detroit. The young Titans have the wind at their backs after the dramatic come-from-behind win in Detroit, and a home game against a flawed Oakland team may be just what the doctor ordered.
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -3, 42.5)
Recommendation: New York +3
There are signs that something is amiss in Kansas City— the Chiefs are 1-1, but they’ve really only played one good quarter of football this season, falling behind 24-3 to San Diego in Week 1 before coming back to win and then losing an ugly game to Houston last Sunday. The offense has been stuck in the mud, producing just 12 points and fewer than 300 total yards in last week’s loss, and I don’t expect things to get much better against a New York defense that figures to hover around the top of the rankings all year.
The Jets have a front seven that is as good as you’ll find in the NFL, and though the secondary has been beat downfield a few times already this year, that’s not likely to happen against a vanilla Kansas City passing attack led by Checkdown Charlie himself, Alex Smith. And the defense isn’t the only thing that Jets fans are smiling about— Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career, and he’s surrounded by veteran skill-position talent and a solid o-line. The Jets are simply better than the Chiefs at the moment.
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (Dal -7, 44.5)
Recommendation: Chicago +7
This is one of those Buy Low/Sell High games: most people currently view the Bears as a sinking ship while Dallas is regarded as a young team on the rise, which has given the Chicago side max value here. I mean, should a Dallas team with a mediocre defense and a rookie quarterback really be 7-point favorites over anyone right now? And if you answer “yes”, I ask, “based on what?” Two sluggish performances against two average teams, one of which resulted in a victory and the other a loss? A run-first rookie quarterback leading a dumbed-down offense? The fact that they’re playing at home, where they’ve covered exactly once in their past six games?
I’m just not quite there yet with Dallas, and I think this is a great “Buy Low” time for the Bears— the defense is better than it was last year (though a lot of people don’t realize it yet), and Jay Cutler’s thumb injury is going to be an “addition by subtraction” situation, as Brian Hoyer is likely to be an upgrade at quarterback and provide a spark to the offense. We saw the start of it in last week’s loss, when Hoyer replaced Cutler and completed 9 of his 12 passes. Expect a more efficient Chicago offense on Sunday and a defense that plays like it’s got something to prove. This game could go either way, making the Bears a must-bet as a 7-point ‘dog.
