THE NAP LANDS A GAMBLE: Daqman flushed out three winners in a row yesterday, including his second winning nap in three days but it crashed in price at SP, gambled on even though it was its first hurdle. The winners were:
WON 1-3 Cosmeapolitan
WON 5-2 High Bridge
WON 11-4 Juste Pour Nous
LOOK OUT FOR THE HIDDEN HORSES: Today Daqman continues where he left off on Tuesday, looking at the life of a tipster and detailing ways the punter must check out a racecard if he is to stand a chance of making a profit. So-called Hidden Horses could be most lucrative.
HOW TO BE A BETTING CLAIRVOYANT
You have to try to see the future. That’s the task of tipsters and punters in making a prediction and turning it into a betting proposition. And the future has several faces.
Firstly, you need to try to suss out the shape of the race in front of you: who are the pacesetters; who the van runners; who the hold-up horses and rear runners? That’s your early view of the future.
Now you need to guesstimate – often according to the number of pace horses – whether or not the race will be ‘true run’ or will be at the extremes: a slouch or speed burn.
You should then relate the runners’ characteristics to the type of race you envisage. Does the race have the shape (on the right sort of track) for a front-runner to hang on in there, or is this going to be a tough test which will favour those with stamina who will be saving themselves up?
And, having decided which horses could be running their race today in the conditions, and by the shape of the race, you should now relate that to stables in form and/or stables who do well at that particular track.
Keep your eye open for Hidden Horses. They’ve been quiet lately, perhaps running over the wrong trip or on unsuitable ground. Or both.
Suddenly they are in company which is beneath them, among lower-class animals likely to struggle in the conditions. Yet none of this may be considered in the market: the horses are being seen simplistically on their form figures, so the Hidden Horse is often wrongly priced.
CLASS: If a horse is dropped in class, go back through the form and create new performance figures from its runs in the type of race you are looking at.
A horse that’s in class 3 could have overall form of 01100002, in which the first run was its reappearance race (not ready) and it’s middle three or four starts were in class 2 or higher.
What’s happened is that it climbed the handicap but afterwards came unstuck with the penalties it had to carry. Now it’s slipped a few pounds back into class 3 and it’s ‘real’ figures are the 112 at the beginning and end of the sequence.
Be wary of dismissing top weights. The horse’s lofty position could be because it has dropped from a higher class into more modest company in the system of graded races.
GOING: Similarly, you need to look at the ‘hidden’ form of a horse that’s raced on the ‘wrong’ ground.
A good ground horse might typically have good autumn form, poor winter form in the mud and then re-emerge a winner in the Spring. He could go into a Spring race 1120002, back to form on the last day after failing in the mud, and with form on good ground, or no worse than good to soft, of 1122.
TRIP: Same again. Racing a horse at the wrong trip is a good way to get his weight down. Reassess his figures of, say, 120031 by distance and you may find that he’s 121 over a specific trip.
TIME OF YEAR: Horses often win only when fresh. Put another way round, some horses can’t win when everything else is fit, so the trainer has to get them up for an early-season race. You’ll see figures like 130000. Get on first time out!
SWITCH: If a horse switches from hurdles to the Flat, deduct 35lb from its hurdles rating to get its Flat form and vice versa for a hurdles race.
There’s more where all that came from but enough for you to get your head into the form book over Christmas. The alternative is Blind Man’s Buff betting, where the layer beats you because his own eyes are wide open to the real form.
CALL UP THE COPPER AT EXETER
3.10 Exeter A big field of 17 go to post for the maiden hurdle but it doesn’t look so big on quality.
All eyes will be on Give Me A Copper who has his first race for Paul Nicholls.
He has already won a point to point in Ireland and was mightily impressive on his debut under Rules when winning a Cork bumper in heavy ground back in March. Ballyegan Hero was beaten 87 lengths in that race but came out next time to finish second and then was a winner on his subsequent start!
Paul Nicholls has had plenty of entries this week for Give Me A Copper and the stable are enjoying a great run of form so he looks worthy nap material.
Big Meadow is still lightly raced and capable of finding further improvement on his hurdling debut but struggled a little under a penalty in two subsequent starts after his winning bumper debut at Chepstow.
GO FORTH HORSFORTH AT NEWCASTLE
4.05 Newcastle Horsforth can defy co-top weight in the concluding five furlong sprint at Newcastle.
She deserves a gold after two placed efforts over course and distance and Joe Fanning takes over from Connor Beasley in the saddle today.
She races off the same mark today but is preferred to market rival Noah Amor who might just be in need of the run having his first race since July.
SUE A TRIPLE THREAT
5.50 Chelmsford Threebagsue looks of interest in a tight claimer at Chelmsford tonight.
This is very much her level as she proved when winning at Lingfield two starts ago and whilst having a much tougher task in handicap company last time out wasn’t disgraced when beaten five lengths at 25/1.
It’s really a case of finding the one who is the least disappointing and in receipt of weight from the others (bar complete outsider Moving Robe) and a 7lb claimer onboard she could give us a big run.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 9pts win (nap) GIVE ME A COPPER (3.10 Exeter)
BET 3pts win HORSFORTH (4.05 Newcastle)
BET 5pts win THREEBAGSUE (5.50 Chelmsford)
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