NFL WEEK 16: Christmastime is here, and this year NFL enthusiasts will be treated to a heavy dose of the world’s greatest sport as they navigate the landmines associated with family reunions and prepare the little ones for the imminent arrival of a fat man dressed in red.
Most of the games will be played on Saturday, which is Christmas Eve, so we’ll be able to make slight adjustments on the gift output for the kiddies and/or spouse based on how things go. And if we get a repeat performance of last week, when all three of our bets cashed, then all involved can expect plenty of glad tidings and good cheer. If things go sour, well… most places still have “return for cash” policies, and we can always go the minimalist route while preaching to the loved ones about how Christmas is really about charity and giving, and how the materialism of the modern world is a sickness of the soul, and how there are poor kids in Timbuktu whose only gift is a ball made of dental floss, and so on. Either way, having the NFL with us throughout this Christmas weekend should only enhance what is already a joyous occasion.
And there will be football throughout the weekend, not just on Saturday— the Giants and Eagles kick things off on Thursday night, and Sunday will feature two games that both have significant playoff implications: Steelers/Ravens and Chiefs/Broncos. It all wraps up with a battle of division leaders on Monday night, as the 9-5 Lions travel to Dallas to face the 12-2 Cowboys. So prepare yourself for a few days of family, food, and football… and remember to keep your receipts.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (Buf -3.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo -3.5 at 1.95
The Dolphins have won 8 of 9 and would be the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs if the season ended today. That would suggest that they’re a team on the rise, but the reality of the situation is much different, especially on offense. Journeyman backup Matt Moore has now taken the reins at quarterback after Ryan Tannehill sustained a knee injury two weeks ago, and Moore is playing behind an offensive line that is banged-up once again after a brief midseason period of health. The line’s declining play has resulted in a drop in production from running back Jay Ajayi, who has now rushed for fewer than 80 yards in six consecutive games after exploding onto the scene with some big performances in October.
So now the patchwork Miami offense will go on the road to face a division rival in freezing temperatures. And when you consider that Buffalo has a top-10 pass defense and ranks third in the league in sacks, it becomes nearly impossible to envision Matt Moore having any real success on Saturday. The other side of the ball presents a problematic matchup for the Dolphins as well— they’ve been terrible again the run all season, ranking 30th in rushing defense, and the Bills lead the NFL in rushing offense at 163.6 ypg.
And feel free to disregard any argument about how Miami “wants it” more… the Bills haven’t been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention yet, they’re surely aware that they may be playing for head coach Rex Ryan’s job, and they have a chance to avenge a 28-25 Week 7 loss while dealing a crippling blow to a rival’s postseason hopes. That’s more of a motivational carrot than most teams get this time of year. I expect Buffalo to jump on the Dolphins early and win this one in fairly dominant fashion.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Ten -4.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +4.5 at 1.94
The Jaguars are 2-12 and have lost nine straight games. They fired head coach Gus Bradley after last week’s 21-20 loss to Houston and will be led by interim coach Doug Marrone over the next two weeks. Betting on a team like that seems unfathomable to some, which is why Tennessee is currently the most popular public bet of the week at sportsbooks around the world. After all, the Titans are 8-6, winners of three straight, and they desperately need a win to keep pace with Houston in the AFC South. I have my doubts about whether they’ll be able to cover a 5-point number in Jacksonville this week, however.
For one thing, those 5 points could prove to be significant. The Jags may be bad, but they’re not non-competitive— nine of their 14 games have been decided by 7 points or fewer, and they’ve had a 4th quarter lead in three of their past four games despite facing four teams who are chasing playoff berths. They have a good defense that ranks 7th in the league in yards allowed and 4th against the pass, so it will be tough sledding for the deliberate Tennessee offense, and quarterback Blake Bortles has a golden opportunity to put some of his recent struggles behind him as he faces a porous Titans secondary that has surrendered more passing yards than all but three teams leaguewide.
The coaching shakeup could prove to be a good thing— we often see teams rally in “us against the world” situations like this— and I believe the Jags’ disgraceful performance in Tennessee earlier this season, when they were blown out on a Thursday night in front of a national audience, will serve as a motivational positive for this game. These guys are professionals, they’re prideful, and they get to exorcise a demon or two against a hated division rival. I say Jacksonville keeps this one close and, with a little luck, may even pull off the upset.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (Hou -1, 41.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati +1 at 1.91
The Texans escaped with a 1-point win over Jacksonville last week, and I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that they’re done winning for the year. That’s right, although they’re 8-6 and would make the playoffs if the season ended today, I believe they’ll lose to Cincinnati this week and follow that up with a loss to Tennessee in Week 17. The last two games— narrow wins over deeply flawed division rivals— have somewhat obscured Houston’s slow sink to the bottom, but I fully expect the realization sink in at some point on Saturday evening.
Let’s face it: these Texans are bad, really bad, on the offensive side of the ball. They rank 26th in total offense, they’re averaging a mere 17 points per game over their last five contests, and they’re one of only two teams in the NFL that has yet to crack the 30-point mark this season— the winless Browns being the other. Quarterback Brock Osweiler was mercifully benched last week, but his replacement, Tom Savage, is a career backup who had turnover issues in college and will be nothing more than fresh meat for a hungry Cincinnati defense. Inserting Savage was a bit of a desperation move by Bill O’Brien (though certainly an understandable one, considering Osweiler’s performance), and the chances of a full-scale, multi-turnover offensive meltdown have never been higher.
The Bengals have found their footing after a rough start to the season, winning back-to-back games before losing a 24-20 bloodbath to Pittsburgh last week, and they’ll be getting All-Pro receiver A.J. Green— their best offensive player— back from a hamstring injury. Green adds another dimension to an offense that has been very balanced this season, ranking in the top-half of the league in both rushing and passing production, and he’ll be key in loosening up a Houston defense that has been fairly stingy all year. I’m sure the Texans D will put up a good fight once again, but their bottom-tier offense will simply be too much to overcome against a veteran team like Cincinnati. The Bengals will not make the playoffs, so this game— the prime-time night game on Christmas Eve, with the whole NFL world watching— is effectively their Super Bowl. I expect them to make the most of it.
