CHELTENHAM CAVALRY: ABC LINE-UP: Cheltenham starts in a month’s time (28 days today). And Daqman launches an ABC guide, which will build his 10-horse Cheltenham Cavalry for the festival. They are straight under orders today with an 8.8 BETDAQ bet on the Champion Hurdle from two which tick all Daqman’s boxes from the first five to come under his microscope.
DAQMAN JOINS IN DOUBLE BIDS: His daily bets hinge on double bids by Gordon Elliott at Ayr and Philip Hobbs at Fontwell. Daqman joins in. The nap is at Ayr.
BETDAQ 8.8 CHAMPION HURDLE BET
Use your brain. And don’t get carried away by the headlines. Consider which of the Cheltenham trialists deserve their accolades and why. I’m going to check out all the top contenders in ABC order.
I shall tick (√) those that will make up my Cheltenham Cavalry and I shall probably have a bet if I find value in BETDAQ along the way, as I do today.
ALTIOR
Comparisons have been made with Sprinter Sacre, but the pair are alike only in their ability to jump at speed and win races. Sprinter Sacre was a fast world heavyweight champion, an Ali. Altior is a Nijinsky. He’d win a Champion Hurdle.
What makes Altior special? He is not the first to put so much daylight between himself and his fences but he’s the first I’ve seen so spring-heeled at the end of a race, where others would be too tired for such trajectory.
This is not over exuberance or jumping big, but his natural style throughout his races. Only something else like him will get near him. But, right now, he is ‘unique.’
BELLSHILL
The hat-trick begun over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival and completed in two autumn novice chases had him start 6-5 favourite over the comfortable winner, Disko, at Leopardstown on Sunday. Bellshill ran a lifeless race (‘ran’ is too strong a word) before he fell at the last.
That alone knocks the stuffing out of his confidence, and ours, for Cheltenham. Worse: he’s seven now and lucky to have been mixing it with novices of five and six, which are the development ages.
What’s more Bellshill has not developed beyond his hurdles level; in fact, has stood still, as revealed by his official ratings (the last three are his chases): 150, 150, 148, 146, 148, 153*, 148*, 150 (*my guestimate from collateral form)
BRAIN POWER
Two factors make Brain Power a Cheltenham horse: he stays really well (and how, if his dam’s side, containing an Irish National winner, has anything to do with it!) Second of all, he needs good ground.
While he’s been keeping his feet dry after back-to-back success in December, his stablemate Buveur d’Air has seen off the Champion Hurdle upstarts so convincingly that he’s favourite in most books for the title in March.
Buveur d’Air also heads the BETDAQ ante-post orange, with Brain Power best priced on the exchange at 8.8.. I shall take that today to win 100 points.
BUVEUR D’AIR
After Buveur d’Air won hard held at Sandown last Saturday week, Nicky Henderson was quick to point out that Brain Power would have done the same.
Though Buveur has raced this year and his stablemate hasn’t, Brain Power is still well clear on their official ratings (162-155), and I have to worry most about the one Brain Power beat a neck at the Aintree Festival last year, name of Petit Mouchoir. More of him later.
BRISTOL DE MAI
Something’s wrong with this horse; something hurts. He performed a hat-trick over fences as a novice, but – apart from Haydock in January – his form figures since are 22223. Those bridesmaid figures usually describe an ‘unlucky’ animal (one for whom everything has to drop right but rarely does), a ‘nearly horse’ (just not quite good enough, though not for lack of trying) or, as I believe is the case with Bristol de Mai, a horse who wants to win but something ‘wrong’ when he’s under pressure makes him appear moody or failing to give his best (it’s usually the back, when they bend it; maybe just a slight pinch of a nerve; imagine how that feels under a saddle and an 11st rider!)
He’s with the right stable, and at the right age (he’s only six) to come back big time, perhaps as a stayer, when he’s sorted. Nothing a good equine chiropractor can’t sort out, though probably not in time for this year’s festivals.
FOLLY TO IGNORE ELLIOTT AT AYR
The boy is now the master. Not so many years ago when Gordon Elliott sent runners over to Ayr, we dismissed them as the speculations of a boy trainer.
That boy has proved a master, and I’m still chuffed to have been in at the beginning of his climb to fame when I tipped his 33-1 Grand National winner, Silver Birch, in the first full year of BETDAQ.
Today, I will assume that he gets one of his horses home first by backing them stop at a winner, so – at the BETDAQ offers – I shall stake as follows:
I take 6.2 to eight points Folly Dat (2.50 Ayr) to win just over 40 points, plus 12 points on Mountain King (4.20) at 4.3 to win just over 36. So I clear 28 points whichever one wins and have a bit left over for a two-point double.
DOUBLE UP ON HOBBS-JOHNSON
The boy was always a master. Richard Johnson was ever reliable and has continued in the same vein since stepping out of the shadow of Tony McCoy, knight.
He and his trainer, Philip Hobbs, also have a double chance today at Fontwell: Kayf Adventure (2.30) and Casper King (3.30).
Kayf Adventure has had his problems but – after a break since his comeback to ensure he doesn’t bounce – he is up in trip, sent on a mission that suits his pedigree.
Unfortunately, at his morning offers (1.74), he is either a banker or the first leg of a double with the second Hobbs-Johnson, Casper King, whose mark has been revised since he won on the last day.
Cash Again will probably be given his head, dropped back in trip, and The Mighty Don has dropped out already. So Casper has a big chance to follow up, an even-money bet in the BETDAQ orange this morning to win me back 10 points outlay on the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes explained in copy above)
BACK 8pts win FOLLY DAT (2.50 Ayr)
BACK 10pts win CASPER KING (3.30 Fontwell)
BACK 12pts win (nap) MOUNTAIN KING (4.20 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES double: 3pts win KAYF ADVENTURE (2.30 Fontwell) with CASPER KING (3.30 Fontwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES double: 2pts win FOLLY DAT (2.50 Ayr) with MOUNTAIN KING (4.20)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca the horses in the doubles above.
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BET (to win 100) 12pts win BRAIN POWER (Champion Hurdle)
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