BETDAQ GAMBLE GAVE IT ALL AWAY: It might have been three winners for our man yesterday but, after Val de Ferbet (WON 2-1) and Clan des Obeaux (WON 4-9), Daqman’s 5.4 BETDAQ gamble down to 9-4 favourite, Bacchanel, was mugged at Exeter. Six lengths clear at the last, he idled and looked round at the crowd. Richard Johnson got him going again but was a head down at the line.
THERE’S A YANKEE ON THE CARDS TODAY: Today an emboldened Daqman searches across the cards at Haydock, Newcastle and Warwick for a sporting yankee, with the nap at Newcastle. First he continues his look at ante-post betting: there’s good news and bad news.
ANTE-POST BRAVERY OR STUPIDITY
Is there a dog running in the Lincoln Handicap? Or is it the ‘hidden horse’ we all hope to find? It’s been well backed down to 14-1 in a place, and in the shortest seven or eight at the front of the bookmakers’ markets in several cases.
That raises the questions: Is that for real? Well, it’s for sure that, if the Lincoln had been staged late last Spring, Bravery would be a very short priced favourite indeed. He’d just finished fourth in the Irish Guineas!
Bravery is still a ‘dog’ to some punters after losing his way in the second half of the season. But a transition could take place, based on a common phenomenon among racehorses.
They can suddenly improve for fresh surroundings, even if a blue-blood son of Galileo is switched from the plush equine hotel of Cashel to Helmsley, gateway to the open moors of a draughty Yorkshire.
Bravery is – on the face of it – a Ballydoyle cast-off, now moved to David O’Meara. He won for Smith-Tabor-Magnier at Dundalk last April before that Irish 2,000 fourth then was a late finisher, unplaced, in the French Derby.
After that, not a lot. Four months of searching him out for his right distance (raced from 1m to 1m4f) and going (GF to heavy) didn’t produce the response they hoped for.
Racing Post racereaders didn’t call him a dog but put it more delicately: ‘He’s an ordinary colt alongside the norm for his stable.’
But what makes Bravery ‘dark’ – a ‘hidden horse’ – is that he is kept in training with David O’Meara in the SAME ownership. You’d think they’d have binned this one but ‘The Lads’ – as Aidan O’Brien calls them – clearly have not given up on the four-year-old.
And O’Meara will know that, if you are going to recharge an animal’s interest, and fool him into thinking life is fun again, you have to go in head down at the start of the season.
You will see a lot of ‘nearly horses’ produced early for the simple reason that’s the only time they can win.
Bravery or sheer stupidity? As bookies are racking up the cash from unwary pundits on Cheltenham 2018 ante-post bets, I offer you this paean of wisdom from the Press ‘experts’ last year at this time:
‘Cheltenham horses from last week most likely to win in 2017 will be repeaters: Annie Power, Don Cossack, Douvan and Thistlecrack.’ In fact, only one of them ran, and he was seventh of 10 at 9-2 on.
Wrapped around that quote, I commented: ‘Don’t let them fool you! You hesitated about backing them during Cheltenham week. So why should you back them now, a year in advance?’
GODOLPHIN EXPECT GOOD RUN
2.00 Newcastle Alemaratalyoum has been backed this morning as if defeat were out of the question and, with Ed Dunlop, firing in five winners from his last seven starters, and booking Silvestre De Sousa for this, it’s probably not!
2.20 Warwick Alan King is leading trainer here but had nothing to smile about at Cheltenham and has continued down in the mouth.
Defeat here for Fortififed Bay, if he held his market position, would be a hat-trick of losing favourites after 6-4 and 7-4 defeats for the yard in the last two days.
A tongue-tie could be the answer for Stick To The Plan but the market says not (14.5 this morning), and Oscars Boss was turned over at Plumpton at 4-1 on.
I think it all goes to suggest a winning hurdles debut for Robbin’Hannon, bought for 110,000 guineas after winning his sole start in Irish points, and trained by in-form Philip Hobbs who is pressing Alan King for most winners at Warwick.
This is another Robin des Champs, whose progeny includes Quevega, Vautour, Sir Des Champs, and Un Temps Pour Tout, to name but a few as they say.
3.10 Haydock Buttercup creeps under the radar to attempt a hat-trick with only a 7lb penalty for an 18-lengths success on the last day.
Front-runners Clan Legend and Grove Silver can set it up for her, and the two others – Spanish Fleet and Wolf Sword – are bridesmaids, sharing seven seconds between them in their last five starts.
3.30 Newcastle Perhaps with preparations for Meydan on their minds, Godolphin under Saeed Bin Suroor haven’t had a UK runner for three weeks until making the trek North from Newmarket today.
Before that, the stable was striking at 38% and its hit rate at Newcastle with older horses is 63% (5-8).
The race looks fairly strong but Good Run (around 2-1) is clearly ‘expected’ to step up a grade on his class-3 CD success in November, first run that day after being gelded.
4.30 Newcastle A second class 2 at Newcastle today is the sprint, in which another runner, Leontes, is racing first time after ‘the snip.’
But his trainer Andrew Balding, has a poor strike rate here, and is not a first-time-out man, so I prefer Hemingway, stabled with another sprint expert ,Kevin Ryan, and 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Having his first race since August, Hemingway was runner-up over CD 12 days ago to Wick Powell, who had already had a run. Hemingway is now 10lb better off. For whom does the bell toll?
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 6pts win ROBBIN’HANNON (2.20 Warwick)
BET 8pts win BUTTERCUP (3.10 Haydock)
BET 9pts win (nap) GOOD RUN (3.30 Newcastle)
BET 3pts win and place HEMINGWAY (4.30 Newcastle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee ALEMARATALYOUM (2.00 Newcastle), ROBBIN’HANNON (2.20 Warwick), BUTTERCUP (3.10 Haydock), GOOD RUN (3.30 Newcastle)
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