SHELL HOUSTON OPEN: Though many in the golf world have already turned their attention to Augusta, a strong field has gathered in East Texas this week for the Shell Houston Open, an event that has been held the week before the Masters in nine of the past ten years. This makes the tournament part tune-up/part last-chance qualifier, as the winner this week, if not already qualified, will earn the final invitation to next week’s festivities.
Jim Herman seized the opportunity last year, picking up his first career PGA Tour win and the coveted Masters invite and making a certain prominent political figure very happy in the process. Herman isn’t the only player to have come out of the weeds for a surprise win here, either: in 2014 Australian Matt Jones came from behind on Sunday to pick up his only PGA Tour victory, and 2013 saw veteran D.A. Points win for only the second time in his career (Points happened to pick up No. 3 last week in Puerto Rico). So don’t be surprised if we’re thrown a curveball this week, and don’t be afraid to back a longshot or two.
The Golf Club of Houston will serve as the host venue once again, as it has ever since it was built in 2003. Formerly known as Redstone, it’s a meaty 7,440-yard par-72 that features wide fairways and large greens that are generally among the fastest on Tour. Though shorter guys have prevailed before, the course includes three par-4s that measure over 480 yards and a couple of par-5s that are only reachable in two by the longer players, so length off the tee definitely helps. You also must be sharp with the irons, as the greens, though spacious, are segmented and the pin positions can get tricky. It’s a good all-around test, and several different types of players have won here over the past decade.
Jordan Speith heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 8.8, with Jon Rahm (13.0), Henrik Stenson (14.5) and Rickie Fowler (16.5) not far behind. Those guys are the favorites for a reason and a bet on any of them is totally understandable, but the odds are a little short for my taste, especially when you consider that only once in the past nine years has the eventual champion here had a starting price of 25.0 or shorter. Plus, there are several intriguing options a little further down the board. Here’s what I have in mind:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Phil Mickelson (22.0)- Lefty has played better than most realize this season, logging top-25 finishes in 5 of his last 7 events and briefly contending a couple of times. He was really sharp at the WGC-Matchplay last week, winning all three of his group matches before being eliminated in the quarterfinals, and prior to that he put forth his best performance of the year with a 7th-place showing at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He’s absolutely owned the GC of Houston throughout his career, winning this event in 2011 and finding the top-20 in each of the past five years. He holds a share of the course record (63) and has shot par or better in 25 of his past 26 rounds here, a remarkable feat considering this tournament is by no means a birdie-fest. It’s been awhile since his last victory, but he obviously has plenty of experience closing the deal on Sunday and he seems primed for a breakthrough.
Daniel Berger (50.0)- I’m probably higher on Berger’s game than most, and I’m sure he won’t be too popular this week after missing the cut in his last start. But if you’re looking for that perfect mixture of price, potential, and course history, you could do a lot worse than the 23-year old Floridian. Yes, he missed the cut at the Valspar, his second MC in his last four events, but he didn’t play all that poorly, shooting 70-73 and missing out on the weekend by a single stroke. And prior to that he finished 16th at the WGC-Mexico Championship, a solid performance that featured a beautiful 2nd-round 66, so it would be a mistake to assume he’s playing poorly. I mean, it’s true that he’s missed a couple of cuts here and there, but he also has four top-16 finishes in his past eight starts, so you could say that when he’s not missing cuts, he’s contending. And if history is any indication, this might be one of those “contending” weeks– the long-hitting Berger seems perfectly suited for the GC of Houston, and he followed up his 25th-place showing here in 2015 with a T5 last year. A win this week would not be shocking.
Bryson DeChambeau (100.0)- DeChambeau is an interesting personality who was pegged for stardom a year ago, but swing changes and the accompanying shaken confidence really humbled him over the past few months, sending him into a tailspin that culminated in five consecutive missed cuts earlier this year. He’s come out of it, though– if the 27th-place showing at the Valspar didn’t convince you, then last week’s runner-up performance in Puerto Rico surely must’ve. DeChambeau blitzed Coco Beach CC to the tune of 18-under par, and it was clear in his post-round interview on Sunday that he was genuinely excited and energized about the state of his game. He’s shown in his brief pro career that when he’s right, he can go deep, and though he only had one top-5 on Tour last year, he did win the Web.com Tour’s DAP Championship in September. I know he hasn’t really been on the radar for awhile, but as longshots go he’s certainly a live one.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jon Rahm (1.8) vs. Henrik Stenson (1.85)
I gushed about Rahm last week and enthusiastically backed him in the overall market at 30.0, and he certainly justified my praise with his performance. And I believe everything I said– I think he’s one of the top 10 players in the world at the moment, and I believe he should be backed anywhere, anytime at a price like 30.0. But this bet here, heads-up with Stenson at the GC of Houston, qualifies as a temporary “sell high” opportunity. I know Stenson’s injury situation has been a bit unpredictable lately, but we have to assume he’s fully healthy (or else he wouldn’t be teeing it up, right?), and he’s been a juggernaut in this tournament, making the cut in all five of his appearances and logging two runner-ups (including a T2 last year) and a T3. This is Rahm’s first appearance here. Recommendation: Stenson at 1.85
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (1.91) vs. Jason Dufner (1.91)
Dufner really hasn’t been the same since his drop-dead gorgeous wife fell prey to the charms of a certain Eldrick T. Woods, has he? I mean, you can see it in his face: a broken man. The weight loss only accentuates it. I’m only half-kidding. On a serious note, though, Cabrera-Bello is a cut-making machine who is coming off a 5th-place showing at the Hero Indian Open, and he finished 4th in this event last year, so he seems to like the course. I considered him in the overall market and am happy to back him against the hollowed-out husk of Jason Dufner. (full disclosure: I’d probably be just as crushed about losing a woman like that. Especially to a guy who was better than me at golf.) Recommendation: Cabrera-Bello at 1.91
