VALERO TEXAS OPEN: The PGA Tour makes its annual stop in San Antonio this week for the Valero Texas Open, an event that dates back nearly 100 years and has been won by some of the greats of the game, names like Hagen, Snead, Hogan, and Palmer. And while there may not be too many Hall-of-Famers in the field these days– with apologies to major champions Adam Scott, Zach Johnson, and Justin Leonard, who have all won here in the past decade– this tournament has become known for exciting, down-to-the-wire finishes, with Jimmy Walker’s 4-stroke victory in 2015 standing out as the lone exception among recent editions.
Charley Hoffman triumphed last year in dramatic fashion, dropping a 10-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to finish a stroke ahead of Patrick Reed. Hoffman is back to defend and has been hovering right around the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market (currently at 22.0), but he missed the cut at the RBC Heritage last week and might be mentally drained after his roller-coaster ride at the Masters, so I’d proceed with caution. He has a fantastic record in this event, however, and he logged a runner-up at Bay Hill last month, so he’s certainly one to watch.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will serve as the host venue for the eighth consecutive year; it’s a long, demanding Greg Norman design that can be especially nasty when the wind blows, which it often does. It’s a quintessential Texas layout, with tough Bermuda rough and firm, fast greens, and three of the par-5s measure over 600 yards, so the easy birdie opportunities are limited. The winner of this tournament has failed to reach double-digits under par in three of the past six years, so the players know to expect a grind this week. It’s not going to be easy.
It’s also a tricky week for those of us charged with handicapping the field, as the elite players have mostly stayed away and some of the guys at the top of the market have been very inconsistent of late. We’ve done our due diligence, however, and have come up with three worthy names:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brendan Steele (23.0)- This tournament will always hold special memories for Steele, who picked up his first PGA Tour win here as a 29-year old rookie back in 2011. TPC San Antonio has continued to be a honeypot for him, as he’s picked up two top-10s and a top-15 here since the victory, and this year he comes in riding a wave of 15 straight made cuts, six top-20 finishes in his last 11 starts, and a solid week at the Masters, where he closed with a 69 on Sunday to tie for 27th. He won the Safeway Open back in October, so it hasn’t been too long since he tasted victory, and he’s a combined 87-under par in his last 11 events. If Steele’s name were, say, “Adam Scott” and instead of “Brendan Steele,” and all else were equal, you’d be tripping over yourself to get a bet in at a price like 23.0. This man is a blue-chip option this week.
Daniel Summerhays (74.0)- Summerhays went through a rough patch earlier this year, but he made the cut at the Masters and then really began to show signs of good golf at last week’s RBC Heritage, shooting 66-70 on Friday and Saturday to rocket up the leaderboard before falling back with a 75 on Sunday. So he’s definitely moving in the right direction, and this week he’s coming to his favorite spot on Tour: TPC San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open. This event has been a cash bonanza for Summerhays through the years, as he’s gone T7-T2-T4-T13 in his last four appearances here. Though the Oaks Course is quite long and Summerhays most certainly isn’t, it’s long in an odd way– almost nobody can reach three of the par-5s, meaning wedge play is at a premium, and the par-3s are extremely lengthy as well, but that’s just fine for a player like Summerhays, who is superb with his long irons. Whatever your preferred explanation, there’s no denying the man’s record on this golf course and at this tournament, and I’m happy to hop aboard at the current price.
Michael Kim (128.0)- Just 23 years old and in his second full-time season on the PGA Tour, Kim is still a bit of an unknown to many casual observers, but he has all the ingredients for stardom and it won’t be long before he breaks through with a win. He strung together some nice finishes on the West Coast Swing earlier this year but has really stepped it up lately, finishing 17th at Bay Hill and following that up with a 12th-place showing at the Shell Houston Open, continuing a pattern of good play on Bermuda-covered courses. Well, he’s back on the Bermuda this week, and back at a place that treated him pretty well last year, as he finished 21st in his debut appearance at this tournament. Kim is an ascendant player who is a definite threat this week, making him well worth a bet at better than 120/1.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Adam Hadwin (1.91) vs. Billy Horschel (1.91)
Hadwin is putting together a great season, logging five top-15 finishes in his past 10 starts and winning last month’s Valspar Championship. Horschel, on the other hand, has missed 3 cuts in his last 6 events and is coming off an ugly 2nd-round 78 at the RBC Heritage. However, the man known as Billy Ho loves TPC San Antonio, making 5 cuts in 6 appearances here and finishing in the top-4 in each of the past two years. Hadwin has played this event once, firing a 1st-round 83 and missing the cut by a wide margin. So this is your quintessential Course History vs. Current Form matchup, and it’s an easy decision for me. Recommendation: Horschel at 1.91
Kevin Chappell (1.91) vs. Ryan Palmer (1.91)
It had been a tough year for Chappell until his top-10 at the Masters, but now that he has a good result under his belt he surely has a bit more confidence, and he’s played well in this tournament in the past, tying for 4th last year and finishing runner-up in 2011. The sun has also started to peek through the clouds for Palmer, who missed four straight cuts at one point early this year but was sharp at last week’s RBC Heritage, finishing 11th. And Palmer is essentially a Texas Specialist: he’s a native Texan who always plays his best golf in the Lone Star State, and his record in this tournament includes three top-10s in seven appearances and a T4 last year (he tied with Chappell). Recommendation: Palmer at 1.91
