MAGICAL WINNER FOR DAQMAN: Thanks for the memory, Frankie! It was another sky-high leap from the saddle for Dettori with a big winner for Daqman at Newbury yesterday, Magical Memory (WON 3-1), just as Pricewise had scored one of his own at 5-2. So it’s Daqman by 54-10 with the level-stakes returns between them now a gap of 231 points.
INSIDE BETTING CIRCLES: DAY 1: Does anybody ever read the form-book these days? Do you have the vision to look behind the scenes at a race on TV? In the next three days Daqman tells you what hidden secrets you can find as he looks at three people you like to live with: trainer, jockey and tipster. Who are the best? How can you tell?
FORTUNE COOKIES: Heartache (1.35 Maisons-Laffitte). DAQMAN also has bets at three of the UK venues on Sunday.
TRAINERS ARE CREATURES OF HABIT
The big trainers are, inevitably, monsters. Imagine you are a small or medium yard and you have your eye on a future race, only to find that Fahey’s entered five and Hannon’s got another handful in it.
They have choice in depth. Johnston’s put only one in but you know it will be as fit as a flea and try to bust your gut from the front!
It’s your stable’s One Big Chance with a horse you feel could bring you a much-needed pay-day, but graded racing means that you are limited where you run him, and prizemoney spread thinly at the bottom means that you must engage in a juggling act from the start.
Don’t give him an easy entry or he might win a long way and attract a tough handicap mark, and have to move up to better quality. Don’t put him in such good company that whatever beats you will drag your horse’s rating sky high with them.
I have been in a trainer’s parlour and seen the racing programmes and entry sheets spread out like maps of Treasure Island. Where is X that marks the cash?
Your job as a punter is to log those trainers capable of sifting and searching until they find a spot for that One Big Chance and then train the animal to peak at the time of the race.
Frustration for big yards and small alike comes when that peak for a firm-ground horse coincides with a torrential downpour, and the ground changes rapidly as it did at the weekend.
Maybe he has to be withdrawn and you’re back to the parlour and pouring over the possibilities again. I’m thinking of African Friend right now (see Friday in the Archive).
Should you keep him at peak, ticking over if you can, for another race quite soon? Mostly you hope so, or all that hard work and rigid training discipline is lost. But does the alternative race fit the right pattern? Will the rain relent?
Trainers are creatures of habit. They win a race, after everything has been planned in detail The gallops, feedstuffs, and circumstances are all kept on record.. most importantly the type of race, the track and conditions which won the pot.
And what he is going to do – and you, if you have any sense – is try to find a similar circumstance for that horse or for one like him. Sometimes the same race.
So, when your horse wins or loses today, spare a thought for the stable. I learned the lesson when young from wily trainers of the good old bad old days.
As Cyril Mitchell used to say: If you see a horse with form figures 0000001 (winner trained C Mitchell), don’t say what’s he been up to, say ‘I see Cyril’s earned the yard it’s winter corn.’
Another old-timer, Jack Hardy, told me: ‘I have to win the Derby almost every week, if I can.
‘You see, placing a horse right, even preparing for a seller and you win it, is just as much hard work, just as rewarding. And you don’t forget the lessons you have learned. You can’t afford to.’
Who are the plotting trainers now? How can you find them? In my articles, and in my tipping column, I will tell you more and, hopefully, find some ‘hidden horses.’
TOMORROW: Jockeys: how to spot a star rider who improves the horse.
HORSE FORCE ONE CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF
2.00 Redcar The Cleveland course has escaped the rain and stage an eight race card on good to firm ground.
I wouldn’t be rushing in to back the odds-on Arbalet here. The grey was a little disappointing for me when a four length second to Hay Gaman at Yarmouth last time out, although did pull clear of the third, and gets the chance to make it third time lucky here over the longer trip but at the prices, no thank you.
At the same price as Arbalet is on the BETDAQ win market (around 1.71) I can back Falmouth Light to place and have two extra chances of a return.
The winning machine of Mark Johnston keeps churning them out (20 winners in the last 14 days) and Falmouth Light can claim a piece of this despite a poor run last time out.
He made a winning debut at Sandown in June beating Master Of Wine by a head. He then struggled under the penalty next time out at Leicester finishing a well beaten last of four runners.
He made the running that day and it’s likely we’ll see hold up tactics deployed again today as they were at Sandown.
2.50 Newton Abbot Horse Force One has notched up a couple of wins in bumpers which takes some doing since being beaten by Air Horse One (watch your bets !!) at Exeter.
He was particularly impressive here last time when beating Keyboard Warrior 11 lengths and looks set for a winning debut over timber.
He was previously a point to point winner so we are not guessing on his jumping skills and he should prove too strong for the Nicky Henderson trained Whoshotwho who was third at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut.
5.10 Stratford Talking of bumpers, Oksana looks a solid bet in the closing race at Stratford.
She has finished third in both starts so far but it was a much improved effort at Worcester last time out when a close-up behind Spice Girl. She should again hold Pure Affection (4th) on that form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts place FALMOUTH LIGHT (2.00 Redcar)
BET 9pts win (nap) HORSE FORCE ONE (2.50 Newton Abbot)
BET 6pts win OKSANA (5.10 Stratford)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
