WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP: Being sandwiched between the PGA Championship and the FedEx Cup Playoffs certainly isn’t ideal, but the Wyndham Championship is meaningful in its own right, as several players are down to their final chance at locking up status for next season, while others will be vying for a spot in the field at next week’s Northern Trust, the first leg of the Playoffs. And, of course, there are 5.8 million other reasons why players may choose to battle the heat in Greensboro this week. Let’s just say lack of motivation isn’t much of a problem on the PGA Tour these days.
This tournament, formerly known as the Greater Greensboro Open, has been around for nearly 80 years and has been won by some true legends of the game, names like Snead, Hogan, Nelson, Player, Ballesteros, and Floyd. Si Woo Kim hoisted the trophy last year, and while he may not have the cachet of some past champions, he sure did earn the victory, shooting a course-record 60 in the second round and cruising to a 5-shot win. Unfortunately, he won’t be around to defend, as a nagging shoulder injury that forced him to withdraw from the PGA last week will keep him sidelined.
Henrik Stenson heads BETDAQ’s win market at 14.0, and he’s one of the few big names in a field that is admittedly weak by Tour standards. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see low numbers– Sedgefield Country Club, a Donald Ross design that was renovated in 2007, is one of the friendlier courses on the schedule, a 7,127-yard par-71 that isn’t particularly penal off the tee, and the winner of this event has reached 14-under or better in each of the past nine years (Kim finished at 21-under last year). Like most Ross designs, the character of the course can be felt around the greens, which are small, tricky, and undulating, some with false fronts and areas that slope off severely. Those who aren’t precise with their irons will find themselves chipping a lot, but the course can be dominated tee-to-green and turned into an 18-hole putting contest, which is effectively what Kim did last year.
Our own fortunes have soured a bit over the past few weeks, as we haven’t hit on an outright winner since backing Brian Harman at 100.0 in the Wells Fargo Championship. We’ve been all around it, though, and I have a feeling that good things are in store for this stretch run. Let’s hope it gets started this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Bud Cauley (33.0)- Cauley went through a rough patch that featured both injuries and poor play and stretched over the better part of two seasons, but he’s found his form again and is currently playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s made 8 cuts in his past 10 starts, with four top-15 finishes and nine rounds of 67 or lower. So he hasn’t just been making cuts and barely breaking par; he’s been heating up and going low on a regular basis, and that’s exactly the type of player we’re looking for this week at Sedgefield. And Cauley is very familiar with Sedgefield after playing this tournament in each of the past five years and recording some impressive performances, including a solo third in 2012 and a T10 last year. Though many are focused on some of the more obvious names like Bill Hass and Kevin Kisner this week, I believe Cauley has just as good a chance to win as anybody and is therefore a great value at better than 30/1.
Chad Campbell (74.0)- The veteran Campbell is an afterthought on Tour these days but he’s quietly putting together a very solid year, with top-35 finishes in 7 of his last 8 starts. He always plays his best golf on the Bermuda-covered courses of the Southeast, and Sedgefield certainly qualifies (its greens feature the same strain of Champion Bermudagrass that the players saw at Quail Hollow last week), so it shouldn’t be surprising that he has performed well at this tournament over the years, making the cut 4 times in 6 career appearances and logging a top-5 in 2012. Always one of the most consistent ball-strikers out there, Campbell actually leads the Tour in bogey avoidance this season, and his accuracy and precision with the irons will definitely come in handy this week as he tries to find the small, undulating Sedgefield greens. He’s a near-lock to be around the first couple of pages of the leaderboard, and if he can get some putts to fall Campbell might make his long-awaited return to the winner’s circle this week.
Anirban Lahiri (134.0)- Lahiri has been making some noise over the last couple of months, consistently cashing paychecks and occasionally approaching brilliance, most notably with his runner-up finish at the Memorial. He’s now 74th in the world rankings and rising, and based on his body of work this summer and the strength (or lack thereof) of this field, you would think he’d be priced a bit shorter than 134.0. But, alas, there is an explanation: this will be his debut appearance at Sedgefield, while many of his competitors know the course very well. Still, is that enough? Si Woo Kim shot 21-under and won by 5 last year, and in his only previous appearance at Sedgefield he had missed the cut by a wide margin. Experience always matters, of course, but Lahiri is a seasoned pro who generally plays well in the American Southeast, and Sedgefield is very straightforward and unremarkable tee-to-green. Plus, this is place where Lahiri’s countryman, Arjun Atwal, became the first player from India to win on the PGA Tour back in 2010, so maybe that will give him some good vibes and positive thoughts. At any rate, I’m more than happy to back an in-form Lahiri at a price like 134.0.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (2.0) vs. Henrik Stenson (1.85)
Conventional wisdom is that Kisner will be worn out from his near-miss at the PGA last week and won’t be able to bring his A-game to Sedgefield (well, I don’t know if that’s truly the “conventional wisdom”, considering his relatively short price this week, but it’s what a lot of people are thinking and saying). Color me unconvinced. While Kisner may not leave Sedgefield victorious, it would be stunning if he weren’t able to contend, considering his torrid play of late and his solid record in this event, which includes top-10s in his last two appearances. Stenson’s game is coming around but it’s tough to ignore the fact that he only has one top-10 finish in his past ten PGA Tour starts, and it came way back in March. Plus, he’s never made the cut in this tournament in three previous appearances. Recommendation: Kisner at 2.0
Kyle Stanley (1.95) vs. Chez Reavie (1.85)
Stanley’s moment in the sun came six weeks ago at the Quicken Loans National, but he seems to have put it on cruise control and his game has taken a nosedive: T55-MC-T41-MC in his last four starts. Reavie, meanwhile, is playing beautifully, making his last 7 cuts and putting up some impressive results, including a T4 at the St. Jude Classic, a T16 at the U.S. Open, and a T22 at last week’s PGA. I expect Reavie to keep it rolling this week at a place that has been good to him before, most prominently back in 2011, when he found the top-10 here. Recommendation: Reavie at 1.85
