5-1 BOMBER BOOSTS DAQMAN TOTAL TO 154 POINTS: Daqman made it 10 returns in three days yesterday, taking his profit in that time to 154 points, with The Blue Bomber (WON 5-1) and a 22.0 win-and-place BETDAQ gamble which finished second at 7-1. Here are the winning bets in the three days:
WON 8-1 ROKSANA (NH Mares’ Final, Saturday)
WON 6-1 ON THE GO AGAIN (Irish Lincolnshire, 14.0 BETDAQ, Sunday)
WON 5-1 ADDEYBB (Lincoln Handicap winner in three, Saturday)
WON 5-1 THE BLUE BOMBER (Monday)
WON 7-2 MALAYA (nap, Sunday)
WON 7-2 RATHLIN ROSE (Sunday)
WON 11-8 BALLYMOY (Saturday)
WON 10-11 ZABEEL PRINCE (nap, Doncaster Mile)
(Place returns: Delface 2ND 7-1 from 22.0 on BETDAQ, Beau Bay 2ND 9-2 from 6.8)
WINNERS FROM THE MAN WHO MAKES THE HEADLINES
From Friday, Daqman will relaunch his analysis of the daily racecards with headlines like these over the last three days:
- ROK SOLID FORM IN THE FINAL (Roksana WON 8-1)
- FORM ALL ADDS UP TO MALAYA (Malaya WON 7-2)
- MONEY SAYS EASTER EGBERT (Sir Egbert WON 4-1)
Here’s analysis from yesterday’s meetings, which picks up hot guides for hits in all the best races on a daily basis.
WON 5-1 Fergus Gregory, who has a strike rate of 4-7 (57%) at Market Rasen, is a valuable 7lb claimer who could get 6.0 BETDAQ offer The Blue Bomber home.
WON 33-1 Gary Moore (11023 excluding bumpers) is in decent form with low-grade stuff, and Maquisard’s best form in France was on better ground like today’s.
2ND 22.0 Delface won twice last Spring, once in Ireland for Elizabeth Doyle before moving to Somerset to David Pipe, who has run him over further until today’s drop back to the minimum.
THREE-DAY SERIES STARTING TODAY From today before Friday’s relaunch, Daqman gives you an easy-to-read guide to some of the ways he reads the form and finds the winners others wish they had. Today’s bets are at the foot of the column.
A WINNER IS A WINNER.. OR IS IT?
It’s what you beat not what beats you One of the biggest form fallacies is to back a horse because it was second to one known to be good.
Such a runner-up is likely to be favourite next time and, in a slow-run race in which the winner was always in command, or sluiced through late like knife through butter, he might have been flattered, running best of tired horses.
What did he beat into third, fourth, fifth? Have they run badly since or have they franked the form?
Winner last time out Another fallacy is to back winners last time out in low-class races. Quality winners may keep their form but those in lesser grades rarely have the constitution to stay at peak. Check out ‘Class’ and ‘Improvers’ below.
Form franked If a horse or horses behind the winner have come out and scored since, we say that the form of the race has been franked.
Race of winners An alternative to form franking is to look for a horse that last ran, whether placed or not, in a race containing previous winners.
Benchmark One that’s raced consistently, and holds its form well, will help you relate the form of one horse to another.
Collateral form If the form has been franked, and there is a benchmark, you can find form connections between horses across a series of results, checking along the form lines to get an appreciation of several animals (maybe do your own ratings in fact).
Bridesmaid Though he may be a ‘benchmark’, beware of the bridesmaid as a bet. He or she keeps on being placed without winning, whatever the company they’re in.
It could be the case that they don’t want to win or don’t have the finish to win. They’re not going to catch the bouquet.
Nearly Horse Some higher-level ‘bridesmaids’ cannot escape from their class. They carry on finishing close up in conditions races without winning but, if moved to handicaps, would carry a prohibitive weight.
Double Whammy Make a list of bridesmaids and nearly horses. They win you money.. How? They’re lays. Oppose them and back the winner for a double whammy.
Class Be careful, too, of the class of the race. Graded racing theoretically gives every horse a chance to improve through the classes (5 and 6) to the middle level (3 and 4), into the upper echelons of form, classes 1 and 2, and even into the Group and Listed upper-crust black-type races (black type because that’s how they are marked in the breeding catalogues).
But rarely are there such great improvers. In fact, improvers generally are confined to progressive youngsters, aged two and three, though you will find certain trainers (Gosden, Prescott, Stoute) who can improve older horses.
Improver Whatever race you’re studying, particularly one in which the leading protagonists seem very close on form, you need to identify the Improver.
You can probably speculate on its future rating by adding a few pounds.
He may be behind the favourites on form but, if he’s a younger horse, could be catching them rapidly (particularly look for a filly to do this, once the sun is on her back).
Ratings Using all of the above, provide yourself with a weight scale, or other numerical value, of the relative ability of the horses.
It’s not difficult to prepare a Base Rating, an overall assessment of a horse’s ability from past performance but particularly relating to recent form.
The Future Rating uses the Base Rating but adds race conditions, going preference, draw and so on to revise the rating for that day’s race.
You might keep your own form ratings to reassess the official handicap (OR=official rating) for that future event, or use the Racing Post (RPR) for convenience.
Beat Nothing Well The biggest headache for your ratings and form assessment, comes when the placed horses in a race were of little account, but we liked the style of the winner, or he was from a major stable.
If he won like a professional, so beat ‘nothing’ well, he is likely to be able to step up in class, though we have no collateral judgment of his ability.
And, if he’s with a top yard, he may be high in the pecking order of a particular group with which the stable does well.
Fortune Cookies For the next two months, the pecking order of the Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden three-year-old colts and fillies will be the focal points for betting on the Derby and the Oaks.
Watch the trials and arm yourself with ratings plus potential improvers and long-term horses to follow (Fortune Cookies, like Enable last season).
See How They Won Don’t forget the stats for the big races. Where do the winners come from?
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked to win 20 points except nap)
BET 10pts win (nap) WESTEND STORY (3.15 Hereford)
BET 3.8pts win 2.2pts place (stakes saver) ACT NOW (4.15 Hereford)
BET 8.3pts win SACKETT (5.15 Hereford)
BET 7.6pts win VOLPONE JELOIS (5.40 Newcastle)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
