FOUR NAPS AMONG 14 WINNERS: 190 POINTS PROFIT: Tips captain Daqman yesterday brought his cargo of winning bets to an incredible 14 since Saturday, with Captain Cattistock (WON 15-8) taking his catch of naps to four in the five days and One Second (WON 100-30) boosting his overall profit to 190 points to recommended stakes, including big fish in the major weekend races:
WON 8-1 ROKSANA (NH Mares’ Final, Saturday)
WON 6-1 ON THE GO AGAIN (Irish Lincolnshire, 14.0 BETDAQ, Sunday)
WON 5-1 ADDEYBB (Lincoln Handicap winner in three, Saturday)
WON 5-1 THE BLUE BOMBER (Monday)
WON 7-2 MALAYA (nap, Sunday)
WON 7-2 RATHLIN ROSE (Sunday)
WON 100-30 ONE SECOND (Wednesday)
WON 15-8 CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK (nap, Wednesday)
WON 13-8 SACKETT (Tuesday)
WON 11-8 BALLYMOY (Saturday)
WON 5-4 WESTEND STORY (Tuesday nap)
WON 10-11 ZABEEL PRINCE (nap, Doncaster Mile, Saturday)
(Place returns: Delface 2ND 7-1 from 22.0 on BETDAQ, Beau Bay 2ND 9-2 from 6.8)
BETDAQ BETTORS DON’T GET MUGGED IN THE MARKET: In Day 3 of his winner-finding series, Daqman checks out the pitfalls in betting blind on jockey’s tips and market gambles, and being ‘mugged for value’ by SPs and in trial races. The message is stick with BETDAQ value. Tomorrow: his staking plans and the Spring big races.
SHAPE UP IF YOU WANT WINNERS
There are stats and there are stats. They might tell you backing a horse in a certain race has a reduced risk, a chance better than its odds, if the horse’s rating is low (it’s hard to give weight in this race).
Then again, maybe the reverse is the case: they show that winners are usually from high in the handicap (stick with quality; class will out).
But times they are a changing, with handicaps now so tight that there are sometimes only a few pounds between top and bottom weight. In effect, there is no top and bottom. You need new stats, a new edge.
The shape of a race was more often than not a matter of where the pace was likely to be coming from, but multiple entries by big-time trainers – notably, Elliott, Henderson and Mullins over jumps; Fahey and O’Brien on the Flat – can impose a stable’s will on a specific event. You gotta shape up. You need new stats.
I try to spot situations where several stats combine to point up a potential winner. If I can then get a good price, I am happy with it. That early investment is a first position while I am sniffing out the Hidden Horse (q.v.)
Following the money In the last couple of weeks, Cheltenham included, following the money for those big stables with more than one runner has not always been the best policy.
New stats are emerging about value in backing the ‘second string’, even third string, particularly in a major race.
BETDAQ generally provides huge offers all the time, and that means you need to be able to read the ‘long’ end of the market, too. Be careful.
Jockey pick We saw only a few days ago, when Ryan Moore swerved the winner, Addeybb, to ride Fire Brigade in the Lincoln, jockeys don’t always make the right choice. Fire Brigade was hosed down a loser.
This and many other reasons frame a horse’s price. It’s your job to decide when factors make the offer too short. Or too long.
Betting weir A long ‘price’ looks good at first glance but, if that horse should be shorter on merit, check whether the horse has eased considerably in the market, a lonely dog on a raft, going right over your betting weir.
That’s the point where you won’t accept the giveaway offers; they are too good to be true. The secret is to know what price the horse should be. More about that tomorrow, when I explain my staking plans.
Mugged for value There are fantastic low overrounds in the punter-friendly BETDAQ markets, where the orange pays out almost as much as you invest in this fairest of exchanges.
So you are less prone to being mugged at the front of the market, where bookmakers love big headlines about a gamble so they can cramp the odds and get everyone fooled into thinking that the rest of the field is value.
That’s only true if they make the longer prices even longer and the overround is low like it is on BETDAQ.
Telephone tipsters Where do so-called gambles originate? Some are genuine. Some ae the lemmings following a Press pundit over the clifftop of reason, even if he goes on losing for nine consecutive seasons (!)
Others may be down to online or other tipsters – ‘telephone tipsters’ – but be warned that, though some work to the smaller prices and need a significantly higher number of winners, those with the massive adverts often rely on the occasional long-odds winner to get them their profits and their big headlines. Profits turn out to be a percentage of massive outlay!
SP shockers I’ve shown recently in these columns how SP overrounds have reached 137% (at Cheltenham), and BETDAQ has shown how our own SP easily betters such a blatant ‘deduction’.
Here is the track bookies’ take on the seven races at Cheltenham on the Wednesday of the festival, comparing the morning BETDAQ offers with the Total SP.
Even reckoning in 2% commission, you were better off all day by between 9% and 29% on BETDAQ.
BETDAQ %: 101, 102, 103, 100, 102, 101, 105
Total SP %: 120, 113, 132, 119, 123, 132, 129
Betting to win a race With such low overrounds on BETDAQ, you can back more than one horse in a race. Why not decide what looks value in the morning, and take an early position.
Later on, fluctuations by movers and shakers, may suggest a danger or that another horse has become good value.
You can get on that one, too, particularly if, from your first position, you have overs (i.e. the offers are now much shorter).
Alternatively, you can lay off some of your ‘overs’, or lay another horse in the race to lose (the favourite?), and try for a double whammy or can’t-lose situation. You are betting to win the race not backing a single horse.
There are sound and solid explanations on this site about trading, so I won’t go into detail about the mechanics, only about punting logic.
Last year is last year, this year is this. Before I look at my staking plan (tomorrow), I repeat my warning yet again about backing three-year-olds.
The form of last year is suspect because the horses were raw two-year-olds and it won’t settle down this year until the Derby.
Early punting in the Classics themselves, or in the trials, is madness enough, but choosing from second-season-only handicaps is the most difficult task in racing.
Those who have failed to train on are mixed with the form as you know it, plus the form as you don’t know it, as represented by improvers. You’re putting your head in the lion’s mouth.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 except SUPERNAP):
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win (nap) PIRATE LOOK (2.00 Wetherby)
BET 9.1pts win DONTMINDBOYS (2.45 Towcester)
BET 8.8pts win TANSEEQ (4.05 Chelmsford)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
