WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP: While watching two-man teams compete at last week’s Zurich Classic was an interesting diversion, I think I speak for the majority when I say that I’m excited to get back to individual stroke play this week, especially with an event as star-studded as this year’s Wells Fargo Championship.
This tournament has fast become one of the most prestigious events on the PGA Tour, and it now returns to Charlotte’s Quail Hollow Club after a one-year detour to Eagle Point, a detour that occurred because Quail Hollow hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. Aside from last year, this event has been held at Quail Hollow every year since its inception in 2003, so the course is very familiar to just about everyone in the field.
Speaking of the field, it’s a good one– the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market is chock-full of big names like McIlroy (9.0), Thomas (10.5), Fowler (14.0), Day (22.0), and Reed (27.0), as well as a certain 14-time major champion and noted lothario who is sure to be a magnet for both the galleries and the TV cameras this week (and, presumably, the wait staff at the local Perkins). It’s the type of field you’d expect to see in a WGC event or even a major championship, and with the Players Championship next up on the schedule, this is quite possibly the best two-week stretch that the PGA Tour has to offer.
One of the reasons for this tournament’s rapid ascension and success is the golf course– Quail Hollow is as close to a universally-beloved course as you’ll find, and it should be in perfect condition once again after some issues on that front in last year’s PGA. The greens won’t be quite as fast and the rough won’t be quite as long as it was last August, when the course played as the toughest on Tour (relative to par), but Quail Hollow is still a demanding tee-to-green challenge that measures nearly 7,500 yards, making it one of the longest par-71s in professional golf. But length off the tee isn’t all that’s required to succeed here– the fairways are fairly narrow and are mostly lined by large trees, and the greens are small and undulating, so it’s very difficult to make pars from the rough. And the course provides plenty of natural drama, as the final three holes are extremely difficult and have come to be known as the Green Mile.
There’s no “faking it” at Quail Hollow– it’s a ball-striker’s layout that harshly punishes mistakes. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that past major champions have an excellent record in this event, and the lesser-known guys who have won here have generally been in excellent form heading into the week. So with that in mind, here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Thomas (10.5)- Surely Thomas has long had his eye on the top spot in the world rankings, and if he finishes 12th or better this week we officially have a new World No. 1, so I’m guessing he’s approaching this event with major championship-level focus and motivation. But that type of thing is generally unpredictable and is of questionable value anyway, so let’s talk about the cold, hard facts: Thomas has finished 22nd or better in all ten of his PGA Tour starts this season (not counting last week’s team event), including a win and a runner-up in the two of his past three tournaments. He was in the mix at the Masters until a Sunday 73 left him tied for 17th, and that 73 was his first over-par round since the first week of January. In other words, this guy has been absolutely tearing it up this year, and if he does ascend to the top of the world rankings this week no one can say it isn’t deserved. He was last seen at Quail Hollow hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy after his PGA Championship victory last August, and he finished 7th in this event back in 2015, so he clearly knows his way around the course. You can go ahead sign me up for the best player in the world on a course he knows and loves– short odds be damned.
Tony Finau (37.0)– Since Finau’s runner-up finish in February’s Genesis Open he’s found the top-30 in 4 of 5 events, including a T10 at the Masters. He’s probably improved as much as anyone on Tour over the past three years and he still seems to be getting better, making him one of the more intriguing players out there– what is Finau’s ceiling? Can he be a top-5 guy, a multiple major winner? A couple of years ago that would’ve sounded ridiculous, but given his current trajectory I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. His prodigious length is still his greatest asset– and that should really come in handy this week– but he’s really made strides with his short game, now ranking in the top-20 in both Strokes Gained from <10 yards and Strokes Gained from 10-20 yards. Finau has played well at Quail Hollow before, finishing 16th in this event on debut in 2015 and T28 in 2016, and he made the cut at the PGA last year (T44), so he’s obviously comfortable with the layout. And now that he’s playing better than ever, it’s reasonable to assume that he may bust out in a big way this week– possibly with his second career victory. I’ll gladly hop aboard at nearly 40/1.
Patrick Rodgers (158.0)– As he has been for much of his professional career, Rodgers is a bit of a “boom or bust” option this week, but frankly that’s just the type of guy I’m looking for when I’m fishing around at prices like 150/1. He’s missed the cut in his past two starts so he certainly comes in under the radar, but he’s just three starts removed from a 7th-place showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he followed that with a T22 in Punta Cana, so there’s good golf in his recent past. But my belief in him this week really stems from his confidence at Quail Hollow, confidence that was earned with a runner-up performance in 2015, still his best finish on the PGA Tour. Rodgers was quoted this week as saying, “This golf course just sets up really well for me. Lots of holes turn right to left and I can hit a big draw, kind of my go-to shot. I’m able to put myself in really good position off the tee and it’s yielded some good scores.” I’m telling you, don’t sleep on this guy– Rodgers is a streaky player who can really heat up at times, and if he gets on a little bit of a run early, this bet is going to feel awfully good.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Tiger Woods (1.95) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
Woods won this event back in 2007 and Mickelson has never hoisted the trophy, but Lefty does have a great record here, finishing 12th or better in 11 of his 13 career starts and nearly getting the job done in 2010, only to finish second behind Rory McIlroy. But there’s one huge difference between these two: despite all the hype surrounding Tiger’s nice three-week stretch in late February/early March, Mickelson has had a much better year, logging five top-10s and a win at the WGC-Mexico. Plus, Tiger is “experimenting” with a new set of TaylorMade irons this week. I don’t like the sounds of that. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.91
Louis Oosthuizen (1.81) vs. Alex Noren (1.92)
Noren has been a regular on the PGA Tour this season and has been very impressive, racking up six top-25 finishes in nine starts and finishing runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open after falling short in a playoff. But his worst performances have come in his last two starts– a T36 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a MC at the Masters– and his only experience at Quail Hollow came at last year’s PGA Championship, where he finished 67th after shooting 75-77 on the weekend. Oosthuizen was the runner-up at last year’s PGA, and he’s been on a good run lately, finding the top-25 in four of his past five starts and finishing 3rd in last week’s team event with partner Charl Schwartzel. Plus, he’s a great driver of the golf ball, ranking 7th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and driving it well is a must at Quail Hollow. Recommendation: Oosthuizen at 1.81
