TODAY: How often have you been put off a winner; did you read something persuasive and back a loser? Do trainers and jockeys really know what’s going to win? Daqman tries to guide his readers every day and this problem is no exception!
TOMORROW: How vital are the stats? How can you prepare for a big race in advance? What does the analysis tell you in hindsight?
WHY YOUR OWN OPINION IS BEST
There are things we don’t know. And things we don’t know we don’t know. In racing, we can add to Donald Rumsfeld’s famous ‘unknown unknowns’ speech: And there are things we wish we hadn’t been told!
You stand alone in this game; you don’t have the CIA to help. What you do have is the opinion of a whole lot of Press and celebs. When you read them, your maxim must be:
The more we know the better but the less we listen to other people’s opinions the better.
Read as much as you can but make up your own mind. If trainers and jockeys confirm your opinion or set you thinking, all well and good.
But they are not the greatest tipsters in the world and, proverbially, most of them are not going to tell their own granny if they are trying to hatch a plot.
I know a peer of the realm on this American aircraft-carrier called England who had 12 winners from horses trained at a yard in the North over five years in the Nineties. Then he deserted his seeming golden goose and moved his string elsewhere. Why on earth would he?
Complained his lordship, revealing his penchant for having a flutter: ‘Not once could the trainer tell me when any one of the horses was going to win!’
I noticed Tom Segal having a private moan in the Racing Post yesterday: ‘Never trust a trainer’s judgement when it comes to assessing the draw.
‘I backed the first and second home on the far side in the (Ayr) Bronze Cup on the assumption that the trainers, who nearly all wanted low numbers when choosing positions for the Gold Cup, might have some insight. Costly mistakes.’
Interesting that he then selected Muntadab for the Gold Cup from the lower half of the draw. The dead-heaters in that race came out of stalls 17 and 21. The last pair home of the 25 starters were Muntadab (from stall 12) and Naadirr (drawn 6).
So the lesson is to check out what you were told, and follow the facts and figures unless you are sure they will take a different direction.
It can sometimes be hard to ignore so-called ‘advice’ and ‘information’, particularly when the ‘evidence’ is a public statement before the Stewards. I have a recent case on my file.
Demanding to know why Horse A ran so badly, the Stewards were told by Trainer X: ‘because he didn’t like the soft ground.’ Horse A won next time out.. on soft ground.
Trainer X ‘explained’ that the ‘soft’ of the winning race wasn’t the ‘soft’ of the race Horse A lost. This is a bit like British Rail complaining of different kinds of snow.
If ‘soft’ is softer on some tracks, then punters need to know, perhaps with the ‘pogo-stick’ measuring system. But is there a human effect on the measuring stick? Does it depend on how it’s used and in what part of the track?
Can the croupier spinning the wheel affect the number of turns and the speed and drop of the ball? I’ll stick to horses. And make my own mind up which trainers know how to spin and which ones can deliver. It’s up to me to have their number!
ANGEL LOOKS BY FARO THE BEST
2.50 Leicester The course has escaped the rain and offers up good ground ahead of today’s eight race card.
Faro Angel looks worthy of SUPERNAP status (1 buys 0.88 at the time of writing on BETDAQ). The Luca Cumani trained runner was really green on debut at Ascot but still caught the eye, staying on nicely in the closing stages to finish fifth to Turjomaan.
The race was only 16 days ago, so none of those in front of him have run since, but Ascot form usually holds up well and Cumani’s runners (especially his two-year-olds) usually improve plenty from first to second start.
Mark Johnston has a good record with his two-year-olds here (2-6 this year) so Past Glories must come into the reckoning and the market (not always the best guide with this stable) is quite positive.
The Charlie Hills trained Nubough showed enough on debut at Newcastle to suggest he could have place prospects here.
4.20 Leicester It was good ground at Ffos Las when Outbox made a winning debut despite running green and in snatches. He beat Spirit Ridge by two and three quarter lengths with a healthy 4 1/2, 7 and 3 lengths back to 3rd, 4th and 5th.
He picks up a penalty for that win and might be vulnerable against some interesting lightly raced sorts including Lilypad who improved for her debut effort when third at Haydock last time out.
Forest View was only beaten a length and a half on debut at Haydock when fourth and the form of the race has worked out well, so the Godolphin runner looks a very sensible alternative to the short priced fav.
9.00 Newcastle Alexandrakollontai bolted home here last week at a massive price and it’s no surprise to see her out again quickly but is now anchored by the 6lb penalty.
Preference is for the lightly raced Ralph Beckett trained runner Culdrose who had a tough task at Doncaster last time out and will find this easier, together with the drop back down to seven furlongs.
Counter Spirit continues to run well but looks just in the grip of the handicapper judged by her course and distance second last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except SUPERNAP)
BET 20pts win (SUPERNAP) FARO ANGEL (2.50 Leicester)
BET 8pts win FOREST VIEW (4.20 Leicester)
BET 4pts win CULDROSE (9.00 Newcastle)
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