Some will give up smoking, others will give up booze or cakes or chocolates for the New Year but I have decided to give up being so stupidly greedy to ensure BETDAQ keeps on paying money in to my bank account.
Hands up, I freely admit to being your “average punter” (if there is such a thing), regularly putting all my eggs in one basket only to watch them smash to pieces, but last Saturday was the final straw and I have decided to mend my ways (well, for a week or two at least).
I have been betting for a while now (I like to call it “investing”), and as you may recall, I had a couple of football bets last weekend at half decent prices starting with Bolton to beat Wolves. Twenty-two minutes in and Sam Ricketts curls in a beauty to make it 1-0 to “my” team but did I have the sense to lay them at a much shorter price and lock in the profit – did I heck? The fact is that having backed them at 2.35 on BETDAQ I could have laid them at a much shorter price and locked in a guaranteed profit and that really is what I plan to do in the future. As if to rub salt in to the wound, it was a case of déjà vu for my bet on Wigan the same afternoon as they went 0-1 up away to Stoke and having backed them at 5.9 with BETDAQ I could have got out and made a very handsome profit regardless which is after all, one of the biggest benefits of using BETDAQ in the first place, and “back and lay will make money all day” seems an appropriate saying, even if I rarely follow that advice myself.
The horses were, unsurprisingly, a bit hit and miss with either no racing or tons of racing per day over the Christmas/New Year period, but I did keep an eye on the prices to see if there was any value to be found. Cheltenham were the one course I focussed on for New Years Day with the BETDAQ markets healthily fluid but I admit I struggled with the form book and decided to have a little on some old favourites for a change. I may well have been a lemming in a previous life as I do have the terrible habit of following horses over a cliff if necessary which led me to Mon Mome in the handicap chase over three miles and three furlongs. Those with decent memories will remember him winning the Grand National in 2009 but he hadn’t won a race in eight attempts since though two places at massive prices had left me up thanks to the wonders of win and place betting. I backed him each way again on Sunday at 14.5 to win and 4.2 the place on BETDAQ and he ran his best race in some time when going down a mere four and a half lengths, giving away over a stone before staying on strongly. The win would have been nice but discretion as opposed to heroics left me well up on the race and looking forward to my next bet – roll on 2012!
Luckily for me Kayf Aramis is another in my little black book and although he has cost me money since I backed him at Cheltenham last March (five races, one place at 5.4), my loyalty or stubbornness paid off again when he was second to Houblon Des Obeaux, mugged on the line to go down by a head after three miles. Odds of 9.6 to win went in the bin but the place odds of 3.1 gave me a profit again (thank you BETDAQ layers), and all was rosy again in the world, at least until next weekend.
Looking ahead, I like to sit back and watch the sport given half a chance (and thanks to my I-pad I can watch more than one event at once!), and I plan to have a bet on the Rugby for a change on Saturday as Sky are showing two matches live. A look at the statistics suggests that Gloucester are a shoe in to win at Worcester and even the 1.85 with BETDAQ looks outstanding value while the Leicester v Wasps match could see an upset and a small bet at silly prices is on the cards, remembering the option to lay off if we get an early lead. Wasps won at home in the corresponding fixture back in September in a high scoring contest (35-29 to be precise), and at odds as I write of around the 10 mark (with BETDAQ of course), in a three result contest (home win away won or draw), those odds are just too tempting.
Naturally, a weekend simply cannot pass without a few bets on the football, though with the FA Cup dominating proceedings, value is even more difficult to find when added to the uncertainty over team selections. Common sense suggests a drop to the lower divisions where Oxford look overpriced at 2.85 (BETDAQ) to win at Aldershot. Eight places and nine points separate the two teams, and although home advantage is a help Aldershot have already lost five at home this season (and only won four) so can hardly be described as a fortress, though once again if I get an early lead I may well get out with a locked in profit!
Finally, we have the gee gees who have not been too kind to me of late but everything has to change with time I suppose so here’s hoping? One bet I have already struck is a decent sized one on Ballabriggs to win the Grand National in April at inflated odds of 18.0 with BETDAQ. I have no real thoughts on whether he will or will not repeat his 2011 triumph but I do know he is being aimed solely at that race with one prep run first (just like last season), and seems sure to start a lot shorter on the day, so I am simply purchasing a back to lay option and fully expect to lay him back off at 11.0 or so in the month ahead.
As for this Saturday, its tough to call with the current weather but I do like then look of Josam for the all conquering Richard Hannon yard in the Lingfield opener at 12.10pm. After a debut fourth at Wolverhampton when slowly away, he was stepped up to a mile and ran a blinder to go down by half a length to the more experienced Island Melody, and stepping up to a mile and a quarter here, he ought to take all the beating.
This week’s suggestions:
Rugby Union (Saturday):
2pts Win GLOUCESTER to beat Worcester (BETDAQ odds around 1.85).
1pt Win WASPS to win at Leicester tigers Saturday (BETDAQ odds around 10.0).
Football:
2pts Win OXFORD to beat Aldershot Saturday (BETDAQ odds around 2.85)
Horse Racing:
3pts Win BALLABRIGGS Grand National 2012 at 18.0 BETDAQ but put in a Lay request of 11.0 to lock in a profit when the bet is taken
2pts Win JOSAM 12.10pm Lingfield Saturday
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