9-1 WINNER! NOW FOR THE FIRST FILLIES’ CLASSIC: Daqman voted for Elector (WON 9-1) at Newmarket yesterday to pay for a classic 2,000 Guineas puzzle, and he nominates the same stable for a supernap on 1,000 Guineas day. Daqman analyses all the big-race runners in an assessment of their collateral form. His headlines:
🔹 WONDERFUL CHANCE ON THE DRAW
🔹 VERACIOUS TRAINER TRUE GENIUS
🔹 SHAILENE VALUE AGAINST BAGHDAD
WONDERFUL CHANCE ON THE DRAW
3.35 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) Classic imponderables, only more so. For yesterday’s 2,000, we didn’t know whether old form would be upheld. Or which colts had trained on.
Today’s third question mark, for the fillies’ version, the 1,000 Guineas, is whether the draw affected yesterday’s result (17 beat 19).
And a fourth headache that creates is whether today’s jockeys, assuming some bias is true, will try to affect the result by moving over to the ‘favoured’ side. A tipster’s life doesn’t get any easier!
The stats for this race say that 65% of winners had raced before in their season; and the same percentage had a Group win on their CV.
WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 4, John Gosden 1, Richard Hannon 1
JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 3, Ryan Moore 3.
GROUP WINNERS: Dandhu, Fairyland, Iridessa, Just Wonderful, Mot Juste, Qabala, Skitter Scatter.
RACED ALREADY THIS SEASON: Dandhu, Qabala, Iridessa, Lady Kaya, Mot Juste, Iconic Choice, Angel’s Hideaway, Look Around.
FAVOURED DRAW (?) Dandhu, Just Wonderful
1️⃣ Just Wonderful (rated 107) Just seventh to Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare but only had to be pushed out to win the Rockfel from Dandhu, who scored on her reappearance in a big-field Fred Darling. Seemingly favoured by the draw and Ryan Moore’s choice of the Ballydoyle quartet.
2️⃣ Qabala (109) Had not come in her coat when winning the Nell Gwyn over 7f of this course, so she should find more. The placed horses – her stable-companion Mot Juste (103) and Angel’s Hideaway (105) – had finished 1-2 in the Oh So Sharp Stakes over the same CD as two-year-olds.
3️⃣ Dandhu (108). In-form veteran trainer David Elsworth admits to being excited by his Fred Darling winner. My man in the long grass claims she worked ‘like a million dollars’ on the racecourse at Newmarket, and was still very green when beaten in the Rockfel last season.
4️⃣ Skitter Scatter (114) Won the Debutante Stakes in the hoofprints of Magical and Rhododendron, and then the Moyglare from Lady Kaya (110), who herself won the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial in April.
Snag! Skitter Scatter has not been seen this season, and her new trainer John Oxx, of Sea The Stars fame, has not had a winner on the Flat for 190 days (39 losers in that time).
5️⃣ Iconic Choice (107) Failed by only a short-head to catch Dandhu in the Fred Darling with back in fourth the pace horse Star Terms (107), who had run up to Fleeting (106) in the May Hill in the autumn, after that one had been beaten by Just Wonderful in a Group 3.
Iconic Choice had progressed from class-4 nurseries to win four out of five, improving 32lb, and seems the best of the longshots.
6️⃣ Fairyland (112) Won the Cheveley Park Stakes. The third filly home, So Perfect, was also third in the Fred Darling behind Dandhu and Iconic Choice. Stall-1 draw looks very tricky. She hasn’t had an outing and she’s never raced beyond 6f.
7️⃣ Iridessa (112) Only fifth to Skitter Scatter in the Debutante and ridden out in the Fillies Mile to beat Hermosa (110), who seems well down in the Ballydoyle batting order today. But yesterday’s Classic winning rider, Donnacha O’Brien, has been released by his father to ride Iridessa for brother Joseph.
8️⃣ Look Around (98) Fourth behind Qabala in the Nell Gwyn Stakes. That leaves Garrel Glen (-), who takes a massive step up from a class-5 novice.
BETDAQ-VALUE VERDICT: Dandhu (20.0) and Iconic Choice (28.0) were big in the orange early doors, and the experience of Just Wonderful (6.6 offers) offered a better deal than the emerging Qabala (4.6).
SHAILENE VALUE AGAINST BAGHDAD
1.50 Newmarket Only four runs since this time last year but improved 21lb, the King George V winner at Royal Ascot, Baghdad (injured during the race), was in fine form on his reappearance at Newcastle.
His three main market rivals have not been seen for at least five months and only the stables of John Gosden are in form.
His colt Corelli (three wins out of four since the debut but in lower class) was gelded in March and there’s no hurry with this St Leger type, closely related to the final-Classic winner Lucarno.
Deja is an enigma like his trainer. You don’t know what to expect and ‘could be anything,’ as they say.
But value against Baghdad could be the Rip Van Winkle filly Shailene, an 8.6 BETDAQ offer who was hampered behind him at Newcastle
And we haven’t finished yet. We have Ryan Moore riding the gelded Melting Dew, whose trainer has had eight winners in two weeks. Yet another older horse for Sir Michael Stoute to improve. Likely to land the next race with Veracious.
VERACIOUS TRAINER TRUE GENIUS
2.20 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute, who paid for the day yesterday at 9-1, has an amazing 75% strike rate in this race, winning it six times in eight attempts since 2007.
Reckoned ‘very exciting’ for the new season by her Cheveley Park owners, his four-year-old daughter of Frankel, Veracious, beat last year’s surprise 1,000 winner, Billesdon Brook, when they were third and fourth in the Nassau.
Nyaleti, winner of the German 1,000 Guineas, was overwhelmed in Grade 1s after, and may do better dropped back to Group 2 now without getting to the leading pair.
The 12f filly Worth Waiting starts out here over shorter and has been slow to come to her coat. Worth waiting for, when returned to ideal conditions.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 30, win 20)
BET 4pts win SHAILENE
BET 7pts win BAGHDAD
2.20 Newmarket (supernap)
BET 20pts win VERACIOUS
2.55 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place GUNMETAL
3.35 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win JUST WONDERFUL
BET 1.5pts win and place DANDHU
Stakes saver: 3pts win QABALA
EARLY BIRDS (all 3.35)
IRIDESSA
HERMOSA
JUST WONDERFUL
SKITTER SCATTER
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