ENABLE’S CLASSIC ENCOUNTER IS A SIGN OF THE TIMES: The big play is only four days away: Enable against all opposition for a second King George. But Daqman sees it differently in his famous ABC Guide, which had Star Catcher (WON 7-2) in top spot for Saturday’s Irish Oaks. What has happened to the Classic crops of the last two seasons? The stats reveal all.
ESCAPE PLAN? DAQMAN’S TIPS WILL ANSWER YET AGAIN: Daqman’s tipping form is red hot with the following returns from Saturday to Tuesday, four days in which his best in race look like this: 1010021110011111222. And he has another question only the results can answer today: Does Hughie Have An Escape Plan?
IT’S VAN DYCK versus THE OLD SOLDIERS
3.40 Ascot, Saturday (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes) Old-timers have taken over the King George! Last year’s five-year-old winner was the first over the age of three or four this century and Saturday’s race breaks the age mould again.
In recent years the percentage of older horses running in the race has been as low as 12 and 28% (except 2017 when it was 50:50) but on Saturday it’s a massive 64% dominated by the old brigade in a seemingly modest year for the Classic generation.
Since the turn of the century in 2000, four-year-olds have won 13, three-year-olds 5 and five-year-olds just the one, but this year Enable, Crystal Ocean, Defoe and Waldgeist are all aged five.
KEY TO THE STATS
A Group 1 or 2 winner (100%)
B Rated 118 to 127 (75%)
C Aged 3 or 4 (95%)
D Winner over 1m 4f (88%)
E Trained Sir M Stoute (6) or A P O’Brien (4)
ABCDE Anthony Van Dyck
Switched to snatch the Derby as five colts rocked and rolled to the line together but left with too much to do off fast pace behind runaway winner, Sovereign, in the Irish Derby, after sweating up badly beforehand.
The third at Epsom, Japan, won the ‘Ascot Derby’ and the Grand Prix de Paris. Now it’s really down to Anthony Van Dyck whether the three-year-olds can gain King George ascendency again.
ABDE Crystal Ocean
Never out of the frame, improved by Sir Michael Stoute out of lower-Group races to win Group 1 at Royal Ascot but that was 1m 2f and soft ground. Runner-up Magical ran Enable to less than a length in the Eclipse (also 1m 2f but firm ground).
ABD Cheval Grand
Not won since Japan Cup (November, 2017), and only fourth in that same race last year. Sheema Classic outsider in March, but ran second (nearest finish) to 120-rated Old Persian. Hunting Horn and Magic Wand behind.
He’s seven years old now, with Swain (aged six in 1998) the only veteran to win since the race began in 1951 with a three-year-olds hat-trick by Supreme Court, Tulyar and Pinza before the Queen’s Aureole scored in 1954.
Ribot two years later was probably the greatest winner, though Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard (1970-2) made up a mighty sequence.
The 1975 race is always regarded as the ‘race of the 20th century’ when the Derby winner Grundy beat the older Bustino in an epic course-record battle after a furious pace set by two of Bustino’s stablemates, the lead changing hands twice on the run-in.
Best of the more recent winners were Dancing Brave (1986), Nashwan (1989), Galileo (2001) and Danedream (2012). Who was ‘le cheval plus grand’? Ribot or Dancing Brave for me.
ABD Defoe
More than 11 lengths behind Enable in last year’s Arc but improved by Roger Varian this year, winning the Coronation Cup (Group 1) and following up in the Hardwicke Stakes. The one-time 88-rated handicapper has now won nine races and is racing off a mark of 119.
ABD Enable
Her 10 wins in a row include four Oaks, the King George and the Arc in 2017, the Arc again and Breeders Cup Turf last backend, then a Coral-Eclipse winning return to the track three weeks ago.
Possibly underestimated by her 125 rating because, as a mare, she still gets 3lb allowance. Magical, twice her runner-up by threeparts of a length, but more than a length off Crystal Ocean at Ascot (all three races 1m 2f).
ABD Waldgeist
Dual grand prix winner in France last summer and fourth, less than two lengths behind Enable, in the Arc. Improved again to take his third Group 1 (the 1m 2.5f Ganay at Longchamp in April) but only third, at four and a half lengths, to Crystal Ocean at Royal Ascot
ACDE Magic Wand
The 2018 Ribblesdale winner has been a bridesmaid since; six times placed in 10 starts, eight at Group-1 level. Behind Cheval Grand in the Sheema Classic.
CE Hunting Horn
Well behind Enable three times (at Longchamp, Churchill Downs and Sandown) and nearly nine lengths off Cheval Grand when they were second and fifth in the Sheema Classic.
CE Norway
Bold effort in the Irish Derby until stablemate Sovereign galloped away from them, finishing much closer to Anthony Van Dyck than when only eighth in the Epsom Derby. Needs the Leger trip.
D Morando
Kicked clear in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester (soft) over further and, though beaten at today’s trip the last twice by Defoe at Epsom and Royal Ascot, the Ascot run was further improvement and autumn soft ground should see the grey score again.
D Salouen
Enthusiastic and perfectly competent but a fantasy horse always aimed too high, largely at Group races, being placed 16 times for just three wins of which the highest level was a four-horse Listed at Ascot in the Spring. Behind Waldgeist last July, Enable in the Arc and Defoe the last twice. Still only five and deserves a decent prize somewhere but not this one.
THE GAME IS (BACK) ON
2.00 Bath Sir Mark Prescott has gone from very cold to very hot just like the weather. After a barren (‘baronet’ surely, editor) spell the stable are now running at a very healthy 7 wins from their last 28 runners.
The Game Is On might be more appropriately to be named ‘back on’ but the signs are much more encouraging for the Newmarket trainer whose The Game Is On should be suited by the step up in trip and can land the opener at Bath.
He was sent off favourite here last time over a mile and was rallying in the closing stages so should relish the extra trip and again gets fast summer ground.
He’s up against generally disappointing types with the exception of Melo Pearl who is running well enough and is another who should be suited by the step up in trip.
2.10 Catterick Incinerator sets the standard but his form is only modest and he is vulnerable to an improver. I wasn’t sure he improved too much from his debut run at Brighton when second at Yarmouth last time.
Lady Ceila only beat one home at debut at Musselburgh in the race won by Bill Neigh (who ran well again yesterday in second, and a DAQMAN tip). She gave the impression that she’ll improve significantly for that run and could easily get competitive.
8.4 on BETDAQ looks too big.
7.05 Sandown A low number would always be my preference up the centre of Sandown Park for their five furlong races.
Indian Raj has fared well with box two and Oisin Murphy in onboard for an added positive.
This lightly raced sort could have further improvement in him and perhaps his best effort (fourth Ascot) was achieved on fast ground over five furlongs.
DOES HUGHIE HAVE AN ESCAPE PLAN?
7.15 Leicester Two betting systems combine to suggest that Quicksand (5.8 offers early mouse) or Escape The City (18.0) could win this.
PLAN A: At this halfway stage, check out the winning sequences of the most skilful trainers. Where are they now, compared with previous seasons?
One of the most glaring deficiencies is Hughie Morrison’s current total of only 14 for this term so far. He is almost monotonously consistent with two streaks of success in which he just about matched season for season, particularly in the last five years.
From 2005 to 2011, his seasonal scores were: 43, 46, 51, 43, 57, 51 and 50.
From 2014 to 2018, he landed the following sequence: 44, 49, 44, 43 and 44.
So what’s the plan? It’s based on the assumption that Hughie will emerge from the doldrums in the second half of the season with ‘quiet’ horses down in the weights likely to win at big prices, as he trebles his number of winners and returns to his normal quota in 2019.
PLAN B: Trainers are creatures of habit: where do they win their races; where have they successfully hatched a plot?
I take you back two years to this 6.15 at Leicester when Compton Mill raced for the first time over 1m 4f on turf. Trainer Hughie Morrison. Gambled in to 4-1. Won two lengths.
Escape The City has dropped 10lb in the handicap since the backend of last year, and Quicksand – very lightly raced – returns to a trip that suits best.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Bath (win 10)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) THE GAME IS ON
2.10 Catterick (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win LADY CELIA
7.05 Sandown (win 10)
BET 5pts win INDIAN RAJ
7.15 Leicester (win 20)
BET 4pts win QUICKSAND
BET 1pt win and place ESCAPE THE CITY
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