Psychologists have long pondered the issue of homefield advantage and the statistics back the argument that being at home matters in the playoffs.
There is little evidence as to why home teams do better than visitors in any sport. The fans, players and media have merely bought into the myth that their own relative power is influenced by the size of the crowd or their intensity.
Some researchers have concluded that referees tend to avoid making calls against the home team as a way of shielding themselves from the extra stress levels that come with antagonising the crowd. Psychologists call this ‘avoidance’.
And that could be true. Cynics would argue that has always been the case when New England play at home.
In the NFL, crowd noise can influence the outcome of certain plays. The home team’s fans ramp up the volume when an opposing quarterback is trying to relay information about the next play to his teammates. Each play is intricately designed, with designated routes for each player to run. Any miscommunication could result in an adverse result; for example, a delay of game (five-yard) penalty, or in the worst-case scenario, a turnover. Turnovers can cost games and sometimes livelihoods.
Aside from crowd noise, players having the day-to-day familiarity of routine, and the comforts of their own bed could also be a reason for the home ‘advantage’.
Home teams have won eight of the last 10 Championship games. The hosts have won five of the last seven NFC Championship games, while the AFC hosts have been victorious in the last five title games.
The stats show that on 16 of the last 41 Championship weekends, both the AFC and NFC hosts won (39%).
Since 1970, the home teams have won 55 of the 82 title games played (67%), with 28 wins for hosts in the AFC and 27 wins for the hosts in the NFC.
This season’s playoff results bear witness to the home advantage theory. Seven of the eight games have gone to the hosting teams.
Any evidence is anecdotal rather than empirical, yet ask any NFL player what gives the home side an edge in the playoffs and they will tell you – having your home field and a bye week to heal is huge.
It doesn’t matter if you have home field in the wild card round and win in the first round. What matters is you have to go on the road and face the next team on their turf, a team that has had one week extra to rest. It seems that the extra travelling time, combined with the wear and tear that comes with playing one extra game takes its toll for wild card teams.
That sounds plausible. Time on the treatment table is vital in this most violent of sports. There’s nothing like being at home…
Bear that in mind as the New York Giants, the only wild card winner in the remaining quartet, travel across country to face the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
For all the theorising over crowd participation, the factors that will determine the outcome are the usual ones that count in sport: skill, luck and changes of circumstance.
And the Giants’ luck may be about to run out, for rain is expected in the Bay Area on Sunday.
Throwing a wet ball is an art and the Giants have not run the ball with any authority this season, ranking last in the NFL, averaging just 89.2 yards per game. They have also conceded 400 points in the regular season, so they do not appear to possess a championship-calibre defence, either.
In contrast, the San Francisco 49ers’ bread and butter is the ground game. They have a strong and powerful offensive line and a diverse running game. Frank Gore is healthier than he was when these two teams met in Week 10 – a 27-10 victory for the 49ers – and he will see plenty of action.
CHECK OUT BETDAQ SPECIAL COMMISSION BACK OFFER on GIANTS v 49ers
If there are to be any areal fireworks, they will come from Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning, as it is likely that his counterpart Alex Smith will revert to game-manager mode after last week’s 299-yard performance against New Orleans.
Manning has backed up his claim that he should be considered in the ‘elite’ bracket. It is arguable that he is the most improved player in the NFL this season. He has emerging receivers in Hakeem Nicks (built like Michael Irvine and who has had the luxury of seeing a lot of one-on-one coverage this season), Victor Cruz (as good a short-area receiver as there is) and Mario Manningham (who offers a vertical element to the passing game).
But Manning has not fared well against top defences this season. The Giants have won just one of six games against teams who finished the season ranked in the top 13 defensively and that sole win came against a Philadelphia side who were still finding their feet in Week 3.
There is nothing fancy about this San Francisco defence. They don’t disguise their coverage as much as some teams. They just have tremendous athletes right across the board.
While many will feel momentum is everything – and the Giants have won four must-win games on the bounce to reach this point – the stats tell you that the 49ers have been the most consistent team, and unless their defence can disrupt the 49ers on a regular basis, Manning and company will have a hard time beating this rearguard.
In the AFC Championship game, it is a surprise to many that the Baltimore Ravens are seven-point underdogs for the trip to New England, who have played a team with a winning record just twice this season – and lost them both.
The Ravens have played seven teams with a winning record and lost just once.
However, they have lost on the road to the likes of also-rans Seattle, Tennessee and Jacksonville, teams blessed with pop-gun attacks. Facing Tom Brady is different gravy, especially when perhaps the most crucial player on your defence is hobbled by an ankle injury.
Safety Ed Reed came down awkwardly on the last play of the 20-13 defeat of Houston last weekend and if he is slowed in any way, Brady will smell blood in the water.
The Ravens have a chance of keeping pace if quarterback Joe Flacco is given more responsibility. Yet his receiving corps have had difficulty all year from separating themselves when covered.
This New England defence isn’t a patch on Houston’s, however, and running back Ray Rice will be the key. The Patriots don’t set the edge well and one thing that fullback Vontae Leach and Rice do well is making room to run outside the tackles.
Expect to see Flacco and receiver Anquan Boldin challenging the secondary more as the game wears on, but on the other side of the ball it would not be surprising to see Brady working out of an empty backfield at times. That will force aging linebacker Ray Lewis to drop more into man coverage, which he is not as adept at doing as he was a few seasons ago.
While Baltimore would be the pick if they were at home, their flaky road form leads us to believe that it will be a San Francisco/New England Super Bowl.
Suggestions:
San Francisco – Moneyline
Baltimore/New England – Over 50 points in total
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
Bet via BETDAQ mobile below
