NFL PLAYOFFS: While Championship Sunday is always one of the best football-watching days of the year, it’s bittersweet time as well, because it means we only have three games left until the onset of months and months of NO FOOTBALL, a.k.a. the unhappy offseason. So soak it in, these seven hours that will determine which teams get to compete for the sport’s ultimate prize, because we’ll be wistfully remembering days like this in the not-too-distant future.

Of course, the remembrance will be all the sweeter if we’re able to land on the right side of these games, and after a Divisional Round that would’ve been perfect had we not chickened out and bet the total in the GB/Sea game (*sigh*), confidence is high. Here are some thoughts on what we can expect to see:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7, 52.5)

Recommendation: Tennessee +7 at 2.0

The Chiefs are coming off a wild one, as they fell behind 24-0 against Houston last week before activating warp speed and going on to win the game 51-31. The final 3 quarters were a showcase of the Kansas City offense at its very peak, with Patrick Mahomes spreading lasers around the field to an explosive group of wideouts and the AFC’s best tight end. Mahomes finished the game with 321 passing yards and 5 touchdowns, the NFL world was left dumbstruck by the awesome display, and many bettors made their decision before the line for this week’s AFC Championship Game was even posted: there was no way– no way– they were betting against Mahomes and that offense at Arrowhead this week. If the line for this game was KC -14, the Chiefs would still have their takers.

But each week is its own universe in the NFL, and Tennessee will present some challenges that Houston did not. Most notably, the Titans actually have a functioning defense– as noted prior to last week’s game, the Houston defense was abysmal this season, ranking last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, so Kansas City’s offensive explosion last week wasn’t entirely unexpected. Indeed, this column (and many others) saw it coming. But as good as Mahomes and the Chiefs are, they are simply not as good as Houston made them look, as evidenced by the fact that they were held to 26 points or fewer in 4 of their final 6 regular season games despite needing those wins. While the Titans are by no means dominant on defense, they should be able to cause problems in the middle of the Kansas City o-line, and they have some proven playmakers in the secondary who should give Mahomes more to think about than the Texans were able to last week.

Of course, these teams met in Tennessee back in Week 10, and Mahomes shredded this Titans defense to the tune of 446 yards and 3 TDs. But the Titans won anyway, because as good as the Kansas City offense is, the Chiefs defense is an absolute sieve that is especially bad against the run, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA while surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, which is more than all but three teams leaguewide. That’s bad news with Derrick Henry coming to town– after being underused and marginalized over his first few years in the league, Henry has fully blossomed and is on a historic tear, becoming the first player in NFL history to record three consecutive games with at least 30 carries and at least 180 rushing yards, a streak he carries into this week. The Chiefs had no answer for Henry in Week 10, as the big back ran right through the KC defense for 188 yards and 2 TDs, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Chiefs are able to bottle up Henry this time around, especially with their top interior defender, Chris Jones, questionable with a calf injury.

And then there’s Ryan Tannehill: nobody has been talking about Tannehill as Henry has carried the team to two postseason wins, but the QB was tremendous this season, leading the league in both QB rating and yards per attempt. He threw for 250 yards or more six times in 12 games and put up 391 yards as recently as Week 14, so don’t be thinking that this Tennessee offense is a one-man show– they can hurt you with the passing game, too. Given how well the Titans have been playing and the obvious tough matchup here for the KC defense, I’m going to take the points, even after seeing Mahomes light the world on fire last week. An outright Titans victory is certainly not out of the question, either.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -7.5, 46)

Recommendation: San Francisco -7.5 at 1.99

Can the Packers get a little respect? They were never mentioned as Super Bowl favorites during the season despite their perch atop the NFC North, the analytics crowd has consistently doubted them, and now they’re only the fourth team in NFL history to win at least 13 games in the regular season and be an underdog of at least 7 points in a conference title game. I mean… Hall of Fame quarterback, two quality running backs, best defense they’ve had in years… what gives?

Ah, there. Got that out of the way. Feel it’s important to mention that stuff before furthering the Green Bay disrespect over these next couple of paragraphs– explaining why they will not win in San Francisco on Sunday and are in fact likely to lose by double-digits, and why I’m confident enough in this prediction to risk my hard-earned money on it. Yes, it’s true that the Packers have played well on defense this season, and that they have a future Hall of Fame QB. But Rodgers isn’t what he once was, and neither in the Green Bay passing attack, as Davante Adams is the only receiver that creates any concern for opposing defenses. Truth is, the Packers offense has been frightfully ordinary this season, ranking 18th in the NFL in total yards and averaging just 23.5 points per game. This week they’ll be facing a defense that is far from ordinary– the Niners D has been absolutely dominant in 2019, ranking second in yards allowed and leading the league in pass defense, surrendering just 169.2 yards per game through the air. They’re now as healthy as they’ve been in some time, and that’s bad news for the Green Bay o-line, as the Niners’ defensive front has been positively unblockable when Bosa, Ford, Buckner, and Armstead are all on the field, as they will be on Sunday.

What happens when a mediocre offense that can’t stretch the field faces a premier defense out for blood in front of the home fans? Well, we saw an example of what can happen back in Week 6, when these Niners thrashed the Packers 37-8 on the same patch of grass that they’ll meet on this week. The San Francisco secondary suffocated the Green Bay passing attack and befuddled Rodgers, who went 0-for-8 on passes of 10+ yards, the most attempts of such nature without a completion in his entire career. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo was a very efficient 14/20 for 253 yards and 2 TDs against the Green Bay defense, guiding the Niners on four touchdown drives with little resistance. The Packers have had particular trouble defending the tight end position this season, and the Niners have the best in the game in George Kittle, who lit the Pack up for 129 yards and a touchdown last time and figures to be a huge problem once again. And though they were excellent against Seattle last week, the Green Bay defensive line will have a tremendous challenge against a San Francisco o-line and rushing attack that is among the league’s best.

Frankly, I’m having difficulty coming up with a list of positives and advantages for Green Bay in this matchup. The quarterback is more experienced. There. That’s it. But as good as Rodgers has been throughout his career, I don’t think he’ll have answers for what awaits him on Sunday. Gimme the Niners… big.