DAQMAN’S SECRETS OF WINNER FINDING: THE LAYS LOG: Daqman today completes his look at lays and his Secrets Of Winner Finding now awaits the resumption of racing, so he can put his rules into practice, alongside his search for value.
TOMORROW AND ALL WEEK: SPECIAL GUINEAS PREVIEW: This is Guineas week at Newmarket! Or at least it was Guineas week. Now we have to wait for the green light from the government, but we don’t have to wait for an advance assessment of the form. Look out tomorrow.
LAY LOG? OR IS IT A BACKER’S GUIDE
Accentuate the positive and you’ve got a bet. Negative, and the bet could be a lay. Here’s a tick list for each horse in each race which could be part of your own rules for betting. They serve as a summary of my discussion on lays.
Class Racing is all about class distinction. Graded racing allows most horses in handicaps to move up and down the weights by adjusting the ratings for success or failure, but many cannot cope with even the slightest rise in class.
Distance Horses try a longer trip in the hope that they are superstars or to widen their range of opportunities.. Sometimes it’s to disguise their form. Check out all possibilities.
Draw advantage Most tracks have a draw bias, particularly round or oval tracks or those with a pronounced bend into the straight (York), but bias is often connected to the going, and always depends on size of field and pace.
Early birds Trainers realise they have a ‘nearly horse’ (see below) on their hands, or one likely to be overtaken by younger horses this year. The stable is well advised to get him ready first time and try to catch out the unfit and the unready.
Early exertions Three-year-olds, particularly fillies, rarely stand much racing until they get the sun on their backs. As we saw yesterday, nine out of 10 winners of the 1,000 Guineas were expensive to follow.
Wide-margin winners They usually beat bad horses but get hyped to a false price next time. The easy winners you really want will score cleverly over a field with good form credentials.
Handicap mark Young improvers will climb the ratings ladder; older horses will struggle to maintain their mark (unless trained by the likes of Sir Michael Stoute; then they, too, might improve). Handicap sprinters are vulnerable even to a small rise or fall in weight.
Hyped (or not) Press and TV create ‘talking horses’ which are, therefore, too short in the market. Equally, they often don’t reckon form that should be to the fore, and those horses are too big in the betting.
Form: face value Don’t believe it; dig into the result and check how collateral form has worked out. Back if solid; lay if flawed.
Form: hidden horse Is this one lurking with recent chances lost by racing over the wrong trips or on the wrong going? Today might be the day!
Form: trainers in/out of form If stablemates are all losing, it doesn’t help your confidence in a trainer when it comes to deciding back or lay. It might add to your lay verdict but, if you still fancy it to win, reduce your stake.
Going A change of conditions may bring a change of outcome. Some horses are very particular about the ground.
Market check That’s a whole subject which I will deal with before English and Irish racing returns.
Nearly horses You can usually lay, or take out the percentage of, ‘bridesmaids’ (placed too many times without winning) and ‘nearly horses’, which are one-paced animals and/or those trapped between conditions races and a high handicap mark.
Track abnormalities Goodwood is a right-hand roller-coaster; Epsom a switchback left-hander. Chester is on the turn (anti-clockwise) most of the way. Newmarket and Ascot are open spaces but Ascot is very fast and Newmarket kinked by a dip a furlong or so out. Horses have their preferences and not many adapt to different courses.
Value Along with the market check, that’s a big subject which I’ll deal with separately.
Double value and more! Yes, really; so look out for the piece when it comes up.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
