ARC: IT‘S A LONGCHAMP WITHOUT BALLYDOYLE: All Ballydoyle Longchamp runners, including four in the Arc – Japan, Mogul, Serpentine and Sovereign – have been withdrawn ‘to save the integrity of the race’ after positive tests for foodstuffs contamination. Headlines:
🔹 O’BRIEN ARC QUARTET WITHDRAWN
🔹 ABC GUIDE SPELLS ENABLE DEFEAT
🔹 RACE-BY-RACE LONGCHAMP CARD..
🔹 TAKE A NAP WITH 3.5 SLIPPERS ON
ARC: FORTUNE FAVOURS THE DAQMAN COOKIES: Is it a day for Daqman’s Fortune Cookies? Fortune seems to have favoured them, as Enable is left alone at the front of the Arc market; Tarnawa is the sole remaining representative in the Opera, and Glass Slippers clear favourite for the Abbaye.
O’BRIEN ARC QUARTET WITHDRAWN
Shock after shock in the Arc. And they’re not even in the starting stalls yet! Despite a triple negative against her, Enable is now hot favourite, after Aidan O’Brien’s contingent has all had to be withdrawn after fears of foodstuffs contamination.
It follows the withdrawal of seven horses in England yesterday by Roger Varian, and applies to all Ballydoyle runners at Longchamp this afternoon, including Aidan’s two-year-old filly, Mother Earth, in the Marcel Boussac.
Joseph O’Brien’s Fancy Blue in the Opera and Pretty Gorgeous, also in the Marcel Boussac, are further absentees.
Ground, age and the draw are all against Enable’s bid to make sporting history by winning a third Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but, with the Ballydoyle now eliminated, her own stablemate, the Gold Cup star Stradivarius, is seemingly the main danger on form.
It’s a double whammy that the going is against her, as it was last year when she was beaten nearly two lengths on very soft ground.
And the draw, which looked so good on the face of it (recent winners include 6, 1, 8, 2, 6, 3, 6, 3 on good ground) is quite different when you take the last six Arcs to be won on very soft, holding or heavy ground: result by stall 15, 14, 8, 6, 12, 15.
Thirdly, Enable and her Gold Cup star stablemate Stradivarius are both condemned by the stats in that no horse over the age of five has won the Arc since 1932, and that was the only time it’s been done since the race was inaugurated in 1920.
* My ABC guide is presented as was, showing the latest withdrawals
ABC GUIDE SPELLS ENABLE DEFEAT
⭕ 3.05 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe)
A AGE Three-year olds have won 18 times since 1994 (26 years)
B RATINGS Winners have been rated 120 or more in the decade
C JOCKEYS All bar one winner ridden by a champion jockey (25/26)
D DRAW Stalls results (20 years heavy/holding): none lower than 6
+ GROUND A plus for those who have won on soft or heavy
X NEGATIVES Drawn 1 to 5. Aged no more than five since 1932
ABCD Serpentine (2 wins only so far) Won the Epsom Derby withdrawn
ACD+ Gold Trip (1 win) Third to Mogul and In Swoop in the Grand Prix de Paris but, like Serpentine, is unexposed after so few starts.
AD+ Chachnak (4 wins) has won two at Group-3 level this year, so has a lot to do today, but the Arc regularly sees big-odds outsiders make the frame.
BCD+ Persian King (8 wins): The 2019 French 2,000 Guineas and 2020 Prix Du Moulin winner seems to lack the stamina for this, but is very highly regarded by Andre Fabre and is the mount of French ace, Pierre-Charles Boudot, who stole first prize off Enable last year.
BD+ Japan (5 wins): Fourth in last year’s Arc: withdrawn
D+ Sovereign (2 wins): 2019 Irish Derby runaway: withdrawn
XAC Mogul (4 wins) Won the Grand Prix De Paris: withdrawn
XAC Raabihah (3 wins) fourth in the French Oaks, second in the Vermeille and another highly regarded in French circles.
XA+ In Swoop (2 wins) German Derby winner, running-on second to Mogul in the Grand Prix de Paris. Said to have ‘thrilled’ his trainer since then. Improver who loves the ground.
XBCD+ Stradivarius (16 wins) Amazing Cup horse, including three Ascot Gold Cups and four Goodwood Cups, has never won over 1m 4f. Must defy his years and the improvers among the younger horses.
XXBC+ Enable (15 wins) Whatever we back, we wish her well.. victory would assure mythical status, if she hasn’t achieved that already, with a string of Oaks, a King George treble and two Arcs.
Fortune Cookies insist that I let heart rule head and, when I come to look for an outsider, it’s similarly more hope than judgment when I go for Persian King.
XD+ Deirdre (8 wins) Not won since the 2019 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and may lack stamina for this.
XD+ Royal Julius (6 wins) Runner-up in the Italian Derby. Ciao Julius!
XD+ Way To Paris (6 wins) Strong seven-year-old. Double of Grand Prix de Chantilly and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in 2020 but the stats say ’no way.’
X+ Sotsass (5 wins) Winner of the 2019 French Derby from Persian King, and third to Waldgeist and Enable in the Arc. If the low draw wins after all, he is right there again with Enable. It could be an unbelievable race, despite the rain.
DAQMAN’S ARC ORDER-IN:
1 Enable (BETDAQ 2.36), 2 Persian King (BETDAQ 15.0), 3 Stradivarius, 4 In Swoop, 5 Sottsass, 6 Raabihah
RACE-BY-RACE LONGCHAMP CARD..
⭕ 1.15 Longchamp (Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere) Second (Sealiway) and fourth (Libertine) at Group-3 level may not be enough to involve the two home hopes.
England and Ireland make up the rest of the field, with soft-ground featuring in their form. Nando Parrado was runner-up in the Prix Morny to the magnificent Campanelle (Cairn Gorm behind).
⭕ 1.50 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac) Richard Fahey’s raider Fev Rover loves the soft: second to Dandalla on the July Course and winner of the Calvados at Deauville.
Kings Harlequin, who was third in the Calvados, made all to beat Harajuku and Coeursamba over today’s CD at Longchamp..
Tiger Tanaka (BETDAQ 7.7 this morning) drew clear of La Gioiosa (Frankie Dettori) when they were one-two on heavy ground (7f at Deauville in August).
Snag is that, Ballydoyle winners apart, the Marcel Boussac has gone to outsiders at 10-1 (twice), 16-1, 25-1 and 28-1 in five of the last eight seasons.
The one with bags of stamina in the pedigree, and currently unexposed, is Tasmania, ridden by Maxime Guyon, and 11.5 in the BETDAQ orange as I write.
⭕ 3.50 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Tarnawa, a winner on soft ground in Ireland in 2019, won last month’s Prix Vermeille, beating Arc contender Raabihah (three-lengths second receiving 8lb) and yesterday’s Royallieu winner, Wonderful Tonight (5th).
Alpine Star, second to Peaceful in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, was just held by Fancy Blue in the French Oaks before Blue won the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Tawkeel is 5-5 unbeaten but Tickle Me Green, second to Tawkeel at Deauville, has been well beaten since. Tarnawa looked big at 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
TAKE A NAP WITH 3.5 SLIPPERS ON
⭕ 4.25 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye) Glass Slippers (BETDAQ 3.5), who won this last year on very soft, went into the Fortune Cookies list after winning the Flying Five at the Curragh.
She’d been getting a rear view of Battaash in the summer sprints but is clearly an autumn horse and I think would have won a duel for this with the six-year-old Battaash had connections been prepared for the showdown.
Keep Busy, second in the Flying Five, can’t be dismissed lightly but a bigger worry, though only fifth that day, is Make A Challenge, a monster when the ground gets deep.
⭕ 4.55 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret) One Master goes for a hat-trick in this for William Haggas and Pierre-Charles Boudot.
But the mare beat a Group-3 winner into second last year and has won only a Group 3 herself in this campaign. Four times beaten, including by Safe Voyage at York.
Earthlight, once a Guineas favourite, after winning Morny (on heavy) and Middle Park last year, is 7-8 but has not won a Group 1 for more than a year. But holds Tropbeau and Spinning Memories on form and will relish the ground.
The moving finger writes but the thumb is down for Rubaiyat, who brings only German and Italian form to the table.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 10pts win NANDO PARRADO
1.50 Longchamp (win 10 each)
BET 1.5pts win TIGER TANAKA
BET 1pt win TASMANIA
3.05 Longchamp
FORTUNE COOKIE and win-20 value outsider
BET 20pts win ENABLE
BET 1.5pts win PERSIAN KING
3.50 Longchamp
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win TARNAWA
4.25 Longchamp
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 20pts win GLASS SLIPPERS
4.55 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 4pts win EARTHLIGHT
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