BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA SUNDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the top European action on Sunday with recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SC FREIBURG V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
2.30pm We have a fascinating Sunday in the Bundesliga and La Liga with some wide open markets today! We start the day with Freiburg hosting Bayer Leverkusen. I was surprised to see Leverkusen lose midweek in the Europa League as I thought they had found their scoring boots in recent weeks. They sold a lot of attacking talent during the summers and started the season a little slowly, but a 6-2 win over Nice and 3-1 win over Augsburg had them going in the right direction.
It will be very interesting to see how they get on against Freiburg today as Freiburg generally make games tough to win. They’ve had three 1-1 draws in their last four games, with the other fixture being a 4-0 loss against Dortmund. They only created an xG of 0.33 against Union Berlin, but they have generally been creating enough chances to score here. I feel Leverkusen are a little short at 2.1 in what should be a very close game. It’s worth a small lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Bayer Leverkusen to beat SC Freiburg at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQFriBay
HERTHA BERLIN V WOLFSBURG
5pm We have a fascinating market here on BETDAQ Betting Exchange for Hertha Berlin v Wolfsburg. Hertha Berlin have gone on a four match losing streak since beating Werder Bremen in their opening fixture. They have had to play Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig however, so their run isn’t as bad as it first seems. Wolfsburg have been rock solid however, and they look a great value bet at 2.74. I would definitely have Wolfsburg as favourites, and Hertha look too short at 2.7.
Wolfsburg have had their fair share of draws lately and have been involved in some very tight games. Clearly that is a worry here, but Hertha Berlin seem to concede enough chances for Wolfsburg to win this one. Hertha Berlin have conceded an xG of 2.70, 1.44, 4.16 and 1.80 in their last four. Wolfsburg were impressive last Sunday, and they look at least ten ticks too big at 2.74 to extend the losing run of Hertha Berlin.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Wolfsburg to beat Hertha Berlin at 2.74 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQHerWol
VALENCIA V GETAFE
8pm We finish the day in La Liga with another open market! Getafe have had an eventful start to the season with impressive wins, 3-0 losses and a win over Barcelona! Valencia are trying to come to grips with all their changes during the summer, and while they have started very slowly – they were incredible unlucky to lose against Elche last week. They won the game 1.69 to 0.13 on xG, and perhaps that is a sign that they can start improving going forward. It’s always a tough decision making so many changes, and not having massive amounts of money to spend.
Getafe were unlucky to lose a very close game against Granada last weekend, and they have been involved in some pretty close games this season. Valencia clearly have issues, but I feel that Getafe look a little too short here at 2.54. I fully take on board that supporting Valencia at the moment has to come with a wealth warning, but I feel that we will see a very even game here. The draw is worth a small investment at 3.1 for me.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQValGet
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