LA LIGA / BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s matches between SC FREIBURG v MAINZ, KOLN v UNION BERLIN and ALAVES v VALENCIA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SC FREIBURG V MAINZ
2.30pm Europe’s elite played yesterday because of their Champions League commitments midweek, and while that was great because all football bets were 0% commission yesterday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, today is nice because we have some open markets to get stuck into. We start with two struggling sides in the Bundesliga as Freiburg host Mainz. Prior to the International break, Mainz collected their first point of the season with a 2-2 draw against Schalke. They actually generated an xG of 3.21 but long-term readers will know how lowly I rate Schalke so I won’t be reading too much into that. Their other recent loses were pretty much in line with xG.
Freiburg are a little further up the table than Mainz, and their performances haven’t been as bad as Mainz looking at their xG figures. They have had three draws and three loses from their last six, but they have been a tad unlucky – for example they drew 1-1 at home to Wolfsburg but had an xG of 1.4 to 0.45 and they lost 4-2 to Bayer Leverkusen but it was an end-to-end game and played ok. They have shown enough to beat this Mainz side who seem very beatable looking at their figures. Freiburg look worth backing at 2.16.
The Ultra Says:
One point win SC Freiburg to beat Mainz at 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQFriMai
KOLN V UNION BERLIN
5pm We have a very open market for the second game in the Bundesliga today! Koln are having a season almost exactly like last season already, in the sense that they are putting in good performances but not getting results. I lost a few bets on them towards the end of last season thinking surely the results will come eventually, but here we are in this season and the same thing is still happening! For example, losing 1-0 to Arminia Bielefeld while winning the game on xG 1.14 to 0.20 and drawing 1-1 with Stuttgart while winning the game on xG to 2.14 to 0.64 is becoming classic Koln!
They have their work cut out today however against a pretty solid Union Berlin side. Union will only ever be a mid-table side but they are a solid one at that, and should be a handful for this unlucky Koln side. They were playing some very nice football prior to the International break, winning 5-0 against Arminia Bielefeld, 3-1 against Hoffenheim and getting a draw with Gladbach among others. In such an open market, I’m going to side with Union Berlin here as they do look good value against this Koln side. Koln will definitely give them chances, and the 2.72 is worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Union Berlin to beat Koln at 2.72 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQKolUni
ALAVES V VALENCIA
8pm We end the day in La Liga with Alaves hosting Valenica and we have another very open market. It’s fair to say Valencia shocked everyone, myself included of course, with a 4-1 win over Real Madrid prior to the International break! I know Real Madrid are having a crazy season, but that was one crazy results. Valencia have gone through a lot of changes in the summer, and their performances weren’t good heading into that fixture. It was probably a once off, but we can only wait and see.
Alaves have probably had too many draws for their liking. However they did manage a 1-1 draw with Barcelona recently which of course they would have been delighted with! They are lower in the table than Valencia, but they have played some good football. They were lucky to draw against Levante and Barcelona but they have been unlucky too. For example they lost 2-0 to Elche but finished with an xG of 1.77 to 0.97. I think there is value in Alaves here as the market overreacts to the Valencia win over Real Madrid. They may well keep that level going, but I’m willing to take a chance at these prices that they go back to the poor football they have been playing before that result.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Alaves to beat Valencia at 2.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAlaVal
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