AT&T PEBBLE BEACH: This year’s Pebble Beach tournament is a pro-am in name only, as pandemic-related precautions have forced the cancellation of the amateur portion of the event. That’s a bigger story for this tournament than most because the celebrities and hollywood luminaries that traditionally attend make this one of the more offbeat and enjoyable weeks on the schedule for the spectators in attendance, the television audience, and the players alike. As a matter of fact, based on all the big-name players who have decided to stay home this year, the latest being world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, who withdrew earlier this week, you’d have to conclude that the famous faces and laid-back atmosphere play a pretty outsized role in making this tournament what it is. Without that element, it’s just a run-of-the-mill Tour event with a field full of up-and-comers, hangers-on, and the occasional top-50 type.
That being said, the courses the players will see this week are anything but run-of-the-mill– Spyglass Hill, which everyone will play on either Thursday or Friday, is a classic tree-lined masterpiece that weaves its way from the coast to the forest, providing players with a stern tee-to-green test despite its relative lack of length (7,035 yds). Pebble Beach, of course, needs no introduction to anyone with enough interest in the sport to be reading this article– it’s one of the most famous courses in the world, a seaside links that has hosted six U.S. Opens, five U.S. Amateurs, and the PGA Championship. One of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, there is no one specific style or shot-shape that Pebble caters to, and inclement weather can turn the relatively low-stress layout into an absolute bear. Absent the wind and weather, Pebble’s main defenses are its small, knobby poa annua greens, so precision with the short-to-mid irons is an absolute must if one hopes to contend this week.
Unheralded Nick Taylor got the job done last year, riding an opening-round 63 all the way to his second career PGA Tour title, and first since 2014. He hasn’t made much noise in the meantime so he can currently be backed at a healthy 96.0 if you think he’s got some more magic up his sleeve, or if you’d prefer one of the favorites, you could go with Patrick Cantlay at a frightfully short 8.9, Daniel Berger (off a missed cut) at 17.0, or maybe the fast-rising yet still winless Will Zalatoris at 22.0. If none of those options sound all that appealing, you could try these three instead:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Francesco Molinari (30.0)- I think it’s safe to say that Molinari’s slump is officially over, as the short-hitting Italian has found the top-10 in each of his last two starts, the Farmers Insurance Open and The American Express. So not only has he had recent success, but he’s had recent success in California and, in one of those cases, on poa annua greens. He’s been up to his old tricks, ranking 6th on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green despite his lack of length off the tee, and also 6th in Strokes Gained Around the Green… a pretty handy combination. Though this will be his debut appearance in this event, Molinari has plenty of experience at Pebble Beach, playing in the U.S. Open in both 2010, when he missed the cut, and in 2019, when he tied for 16th, the best U.S. Open result of his career. The set-up should be a bit friendlier this time around, even without the amateurs, so Molinari will be playing an easier version of a course he knows well, at a time when he’s really playing some good golf. I like his chances this week.
Henrik Norlander (56.0)- If you’re looking to ride a hot hand this week you could do a lot worse than Norlander, as the 33-year old Swede has been on a nice run lately– T12 at The American Express, runner-up at the Farmers, and T22 in Phoenix last week. He’s striking the ball beautifully, hovering around the top-25 in just about every major ballstriking stat, and his putting, normally a weakness, has been rock solid lately, particularly from 10 feet and in. He’s played in this event a handful of times and has made the cut in his last two appearances, finishing T25 last year, so he certainly knows his way around Pebble and has shown steady signs of improvement. He nearly broke through a couple of weeks ago at Torrey Pines, a course similar in many ways to Pebble, and with the way he’s been playing lately I don’t think anyone would be too surprised to see him hovering around the lead this weekend. Perhaps most importantly, the price is right– at better than 50/1, Norlander gives you plenty of bang for the buck this week. He’s worth a try.
Michael Thompson (102.0)- Thompson ended a 7-year victory drought with a win at last year’s 3M Open, which validated his return as a top-level player after a couple of years in the wilderness. His “comeback”, if you want to call it that, actually began in 2019, and since then he’s racked up 15 top-25 finishes and 7 top-10s, which is a far cry from the type of golf he was playing from 2014-2018. So we can discount many of his missed cuts in this tournament and focus on the positives: he has two top-20 finishes here, including a T10 in 2019, so he knows what it takes to succeed around Pebble. And this should be an opportunity for him to make hay, as his biggest weakness– his lack of length off the tee– won’t matter much this week. Considering he’s just two starts removed from a top-5 finish at The American Express, Thompson profiles as a “live” longshot this week and is worth a bet at better than 100/1.
