27.0 IS A CHAMPION BET AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman, who landed his nap yesterday with Ogaritmo (WON 9-4), continues his survey of the Cheltenham Festival markets. He is now on Day Two, which includes the Champion Chase and the RSA.
New readers start here for Cheltenham. Thousands of punters – I don’t know the exact number but they are all friends of Tommo’s – try to pick winners and love to boast about it. And what’s wrong with that?
Well, winners, particularly at SP have more than likely had all the value squeezed out of them unless they are a surprise, in which case you chose them by luck anyway. Without the value, their overall return doesn’t give you the profit you are looking for.
You have to pick prices. That is to say, you need to be on an offer which is bigger than it should be. And there are usually plenty of chances ante-post which, secondarily, means you have time to clean up after yourself if you’ve made a mess of analyzing the race and ‘pricing up’.
‘Pricing up’ is your personal assessment of the odds. Only then will you check them against the offers in Betdaq. That’s what this column is about.
So, when I nominated Rock On Ruby at 17.0 for the Champion Hurdle and Seabass at 50.0 (he’s 23.0 this morning) for the Grand National, I thought they were too big in two ways: bigger than they should be in my pricing up and bigger than the bookies will give you.
The third reason for betting ante-post is to try to get something in your own ‘book’ that will render the race underround for you on the day, or at least give you some ‘overs.’
It means that, if you have a price ante-post bigger than that on the day or in the run-up to it (‘overs’), you can lay it off or bet against it; this also means that, because you have those ‘overs’, the race itself – even if you back every runner – adds up to a profit, however small.
Remember, if you bet SP with bookmakers on any given day, you are usually giving back that vital percentage, the margin you seek.
The worst-case scenario at Wolverhampton yesterday was 26% in the 33.30 maiden (SP total percent 126, according to the Racing Post) and 122 (in the 3.15) at Plumptious.
Neptune Novices Hurdle: Pricewise wins because he nominates prices. If he can do it, so can you. But I wouldn’t choose this race, if I were you.
As Willie Mullins tells the Racing Post of his six ‘runners’: “They are all possibles and hold entries in other races. There’s a lot of work to do before we make any final decisions.”
Alan King says that the Pricewise horse, Batonnier, certainly is an ‘’intended’ runner and I wouldn’t put you off, though I doubt you’ll skim much in the way of ‘overs’.
And, without a nudge from me, you might be put off if you read Raceform’s analysis of his win, which was at Cheltenham, I grant you. ‘Batonnier, 0-4 over hurdles coming into this race.. was about a length down at the last when the runner-up helped him with a mistake.. the Neptune is the apparent aim but he won’t be good enough there.’
Champion Chase: One-time Supreme Novices third, Somersby, beaten only threeparts of a length by Sizing Europe in the 2010 Arkle, was more than 12 lengths behind the same animal in the Champion Chase last March.
But that wasn’t his day and he was still a young horse then: all his chase wins outside the novice stage have come since, and he looked strong when overpowering Finians Rainbow at Ascot.
Yet here he is 27.0 on Betdaq (8-1 with Ladbrokes) against Finian’s Rainbow’s 6.0, with the Ryanair betting suggesting he goes there.
But will he really attempt 2m 5f? If he does go for the Ryanair, we can cover our ‘mistake’ with a stakes saver on him in that race (he’s currently around 6-1).
Would you believe that, at eight, he is still among the five youngest of the 14 in the Champion Chase: there’s been only one winner of a double figure age since 1998 and only three in the last 25 years.
The first two in the Champion betting are aged 10 and 11 and, as I said, Somersby has already beaten the third favourite, Finians Rainbow.
RSA Chase: Your problem here is Grands Crus. Betting-wise, never be afraid of one horse, but will he frighten off the pick of the remainder in this RSA field and confine them to the Jewson?
Invictus (11.0 though he’s already beaten second favourite Bobs Worth) and Sir Des Champs (21.0) are bigger offers than the bookies will make.
Two firms in the Racing Post markets list go only 9-1 Sir Des Champs for this RSA, yet the same firms are 5-1 and 6-1 favourite the same horse for the Jewson. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts CRYSTALIYEV and BET 7.5pts win (nap) TAKHREEJ (5.10 Lingfield)
ANTE-POST: BET (WIN 50): 1.9pts win SOMERSBY (27.0, Champion Chase, Cheltenham)
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