David Ferrer made it a trio of titles in Acapulco last week, taking my winning selections to three in as many weeks and keeping the winning momentum going for my BETDAQ column. This week, the tour heads to the hot and humid Californian desert for the first of nine ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells. A typically strong field will be on show over the next ten days with every member of the World’s top 32 players in action.
Rafael Nadal returns from a self-imposed absence, taken in order to recuperate from wrist issues, and joins Dubai champion Roger Federer, beaten Dubai finalist Andy Murray, and world number one Novak Djokovic in the $1million tournament.
Shock champions have been few and far between at this event, with only really Ivan Ljubicic in 2010 bucking that trend and in all honesty, it is difficult to oppose the top-4 seeds this week. Two time champion Rafael Nadal comes into this week off the back of a six-week break and is likely to be the freshest of the main contenders. I’d be surprised if Nadal wasn’t close to 100% and if he can negotiate his first few matches, during which I can’t really see any dangerous floaters he’d rather avoid, I think he has a great chance of making the last four at the very worst.
Roger Federer will be full of confidence following his tournament win in the Middle East but unlike Nadal, he does have a few potentially hazardous opponents in Milos Raonic (twice a tournament winner in 2012 already), and Juan Martin Del Potro.
Bearing in mind temperatures could peak at 30 degrees come Saturday, I think it could be crucial that court-time is kept to a minimum and given Federer has a slightly trickier draw, I’ll take Nadal to make the final from the bottom half of the draw.
Should he make the final, I think British number one Andy Murray could be waiting for him. Defeating Novak Djokovic in any tournament is an achievement in itself and I was little disappointed that he couldn’t capitalise on the win and secure the title in Dubai. I think though he has a fantastic chance to go one better this week. Finalist in 2009, he knows his way around California and his confidence will be sky high. Murray’s quarter of the draw isn’t altogether that tough and whilst a potential match with Stanislas Wawrinka may take some winning, I see no reason why he cannot make the last four, where he should meet Djokovic whom he defeated just last week.
If pushed for a selection, I’d side with Nadal, mainly because his general fitness should be a little better than Murray’s and if not too rusty following his break, could make a winning return to the tour.
Selection – Rafael Nadal @ 4.3 on BETDAQ
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