FOUR SUPERNAPS IN A ROW AS THEY CLIMB TO 79% STRIKE RATE: Short-priced winner-finding is as hard as spotting outsiders because you need a very high number of hits to make a staking plan work. Daqman took his supernaps score to four in a row, 15 out of 19 for the season with another gamble landed yesterday, Deauville winner, Skazino. So the supernaps strike-rate climbs to 79%. Here is the supernaps sequence (at SP; all were better offers on BETDAQ, Magellan at 3-1):
WON 2-7 SKAZINO
WON 2-5 REACH FOR THE MOON
WON 8-11 HUKUM
WON 7-4 MEGALLAN
THE AUTUMN HORSES AND TRAINERS TO FOLLOW: Daqman kicks himself today for missing the hidden horses of the big weekend double, the Ebor and the Morny, and in the next two days continues the theme of horses and trainers to follow.
TODAY: Don’t Forget The Hidden Horse.
TOMORROW: The Gold Strike: what’s left?
WEDNESDAY: Fortune Cookies update
THURSDAY: Celebration Mile ABC guide
FRIDAY: Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh
SATURDAY: Goodwood and Saturday Special
DON’T FORGET THE HIDDEN HORSE
Form is the only way to bet. Weaving together all its facets in your mind or in a computer algorithm can produce enough winners to make your racing pay.
One major contribution must be the trainer’s ability.
There’s no doubt Richard Fahey has it but, with a strike rate of 7%, and a current record of 1-60 as they entered the Deauville stalls, it was hard to feel confident, so I missed Perfect Power yesterday.
The Norfolk Stakes winner had twice failed to get a clear passage in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and finished only fifth behind Asymmetric.
But he turned around that form in the Morny yesterday with a strong late run which Goodwood hardly gave him time for but Deauville did.
Only the day before I’d left behind the 10-1 winner of the Ebor, despite following trainer Johnny Murtagh since Champers Elysees stacked up four wins for me a year or so back.
I had failed twice on an ingredient that algorithms don’t understand: the hidden horse.
Not for the first time, hidden among Fahey’s morass of losers, one horse – Perfect Power – stood aloof, a standout in the stable, a standout on the track.
Not for the first time – and, absolutely no doubt, many more to come – Murtagh could plot a horse’s progress to perfection and pounce on a £300,000 purse at York.
The passion as he punched the air after Sonnyboyliston’s Ebor triumph matched the one which Muhammad Ali landed on Sonny Liston in the very first round in 1965.
KOP BACK ON HIS WINNING MARK
⚠️ HEADS UP Kendergarten Kop (2.15), who completed a Brighton hat-trick in the Spring, two of them under Saffie Osborne, is back on his last winning mark, with Saffie, leading rider at Brighton, still able to claim 5lb.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.4 Kendergarten Kop
⚠️ HEADS UP While others in the race are learning their trade, Alan King‘s Caramelised (5.35 Stratford) can complete a course-and-distance double. One to keep an eye on is Baby Sham, whose hurdling must improve.
But her claiming rider, Alexander Thorne, is highly regarded in this respect and moves on to Bangor tomorrow to take a ride on a novice for Alan King.
Hopefully the returns from my nap on Caramelised will cover two bets, one at Brighton and one at Chepstow, total stake 7.75.
PLATO A HOT DISH AT CHEPSTOW
⭕ 2.30 Chepstow You must always be looking to find a poor favourite. If you really think you can knock him out, lay him. Alternatively, bet elsewhere in the market which will have increased in value for you.
For instance, in a BETDAQ market of 104 total percentage, knocking out the 3-1 favourite theoretically gives you – instead of a 100-104 situation – one of 100-79, where 79 invested returns 100.
You need reasons for opposing the favourite. Examples: he’s had too many quick hard races, and is probably over the top; or he’s a bridesmaid, continually placed without winning.
Your problem midweek is that, with so many moderate races, fields are littered with bad situations, even at the front of the market. In this 2.30 Chepstow:
Favourite Bolly Bullett ran only three days ago; he’s up in grade now and 3lb higher; and the ground has changed.
Second favourite Miquelon is a maiden and a bridesmaid at that; since moving from France, he is 220432, and that’s despite cheekpieces being applied the last twice and despite dropping back down in grade into a maidens-only handicap on the last day.
Are there any pluses in this awful race: I might suggest Sir Plato because he won back-to-back at Chepstow on an easy surface earlier in the year, and he’s ridden by the jockey, Angus Villiers, who was his partner for the first of them, and has a 35% strike rate in the last fortnight.
Delta River is another maiden; Fieldsman is nine now; and Gloves Lynch hasn’t won on turf since his maiden, always a bad sign.
BETDAQ value 5.0 Sir Plato
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Brighton (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win KENDERGARTEN KOP
2.30 Chepstow (win 20
BET 5pts win SIR PLATO
5.35 Stratford (nap)
BET 10pts win CARAMELISED
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
