DAQMAN LANDS 9-2 NAP AS HE TARGETS THE JUMPS: Daqman was in top form over the Jumps yesterday with a 9-2 nap at Newton Abbot and a one-two forecast at Carlisle.
Thursday: profit on the day 16.05
WON 9-2 ARIAN (nap)
WON 11-4 QUINTA DO MAR
(2ND 5-2 ONEHUNDREDPERCENT same race)
WHICH STABLES FARM AUTUMN CROP OF WINNERS? Which stables do well late in the Flat turf year and who bags the early prizes over the sticks? That’s the question he tries to answer today with a check on the crop of winners over the last 10 years.
TRAINERFORM: BALDING RED HOT
⚠️ HEADS UP Two-day meetings at Doncaster (Flat) and Cheltenham (Jumps), starting today, mark the cross-over between seasons. But who does well late in the Flat turf year and who bags the early prizes over the sticks? Here are the winning trainers in the decade over the two days at the two meetings:
Doncaster late-comers Andrew Balding 6, Ralph Beckett 6, Roger Varian 6, Aidan O’Brien 5, Richard Hannon 4, Saeed Bin Suroor 4, Mark Johnston 4, Richard Fahey 3, James Fanshawe 3, William Haggas 3, Mick Channon 2, Keith Dalgleish 2, Tom Dascombe 2, Brian Meehan 2, Roger Teal 2, Sir Michael Stoute 2.
IN FORM: Andrew Balding (last two days): 1131311. Roger Varian (7-30), Saeed Bin Suroor (5-23), William Haggas (3-7). Poor form Aidan O’Brien (2-49), Richard Hannon (3-49), Mark Johnston (2-69)
Cheltenham early birds Paul Nicholls 7, Nigel Twiston Davies 6, Dan Skelton 4, Fergal O’Brien 3, Nicky Henderson 3, Evan Williams 3, Martin Keighley 2, David Pipe 2, Gordon Elliott 2, Charlie Longsdon 2, Dr Richard Newland 2, Neil Mulholland 2.
IN FORM: Nigel Twiston-Davies (5-23), Paul Nicholls (9-35), Gordon Elliott (10-48), Poor form Dan Skelton (2-31)
BIG OFFERS ELLIOTT RAIDERS
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham The stakes are high for Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell on their return to Cheltenham today, with Elliott having had just four runners in England this season and Russell only 20 rides in all at home.
But, if the money is down, punters should be on their side as these latest figures show:
* Gordon Elliott: last 24 runners when 6-4 or shorter: 11321303
* Davy Russell: last six rides reduced to favourites only: 111
The Elliott-Russell attack on Cheltenham today starts with Mars Harper, a consistent mare but up against Philip Hobbs’s Persian War novices winner, Camprond, who would have to give him 11lb if this were a handicap.
Elliott is hoping that Mars Harper’s experience will make up for his being ‘a bit wrong at the weights.’
Unphased as opening bat against the all-conquering Irish at Cheltenham, Philip Hobbs is keen enough on Camprond to warn that this is his last novice before taking on much stronger opposition.
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham Buddy Rich is the second Elliottt-Russell runner and ’second’ is beside his name far too often, but he loves the ground and has met talented opposition in Ireland so far. Too big on BETDAQ at 9.8 this morning.
Any News was beaten only a neck on his chasing debut. Fidelio Vallis (3.0 this morning) has landed a four-timer over fences, and his novice status runs out at the end of this month.
The race could equally be the start of a top career over fences for Third Time Lucki, a Graded hurdler who comes here after a wind op. Has won after a break the last twice but the stable is out of form.
3.05 Cheltenham Elliott and Russell are responsible here for Calagogo, unbeaten since winning his maiden hurdle (111), with two of his three wins in Britain.
Dragon Bones (4.4 taken) is a Listed-winning mare but Calagogo is better than the 8.4 offers on BETDAQ as I write.
HAYLEY’S SECRET IS OUT AGAIN
⭕ 2.05 Doncaster Roger Varian has picked stamina-bred Medrara from among his two-year-olds to carry his hopes of completing a hat-trick in this race today.
⭕ 2.40 Doncaster The winner, Chairmanoftheboard, the third, Air Raid, and the seventh horse home, Call Me Ginger, come here after racing together at Haydock last week, with the Chairman under a 5lb penalty, getting his ground again today but worse off at the weights.
⭕ 3.58 Newbury Hayley Turner has ridden both Secret Shadow and her dam, Secret Pursuit, to victory on soft ground, and today’s partnership looked particularly stylish at Nottingham two weeks back.
Weight will count double in the mud today and the Camelot filly is getting 12lb from Oman, down the field in the Melrose and so far best on tight tracks.
Downsman has performed well on heavy in a lower grade but is not well in with Reverend Hubert on earlier form. I took 5.4 Secret Shadow on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
⭕ 5.00 Newbury Back to the Irish raiders, and Kildare-based Gerard O’Leary appears to have a mud-lover plotted for this sprint, though unraced since the Spring.
The race I recall regarding Fastar (BETDAQ 10.0 this morning) is when he was favourite, giving 12lb to the winner, Half Nutz, at Naas. Half Nutz was back there last week, winning easily off a similar mark.
DAQMAN’S JUMPS BETS
1.55 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 12pts win CAMPROND
2.30 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win BUDDY RICH
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) FIDELIO VALLIS
3.05 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.75pt win CALAGOGO
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) DRAGON BONES
Daq Multiples
4 x 1pt win trebles the above five
DAQMAN’S FLAT BETS
3.58 Newbury (Flat nap to win 20)
BET 4.5pts win SECRET SHADOW
5.00 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2pts win FASTAR
Daq Multiples
1pt win double the two Flat bets
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
