DAQMAN’S FIVE-CARD TRICK: It pays to follow Cheltenham losers and today Daqman picks a nap hand of horses he thinks will do well back on conventional tracks or at the Aintree Festival in three weeks’ time. Or both. His daily bets are at the foot of the column.
Don’t forget the Also Rans. Virtually the whole of the jumps season had been geared to Cheltenham. It’s over but don’t let it go. There are lessons to be learned for future betting.
Those horses you picked for Cheltenham that didn’t pay off at Prestbury Park may have failed you because they were not suited to the undulating track with its stiff uphill finish.
Don’t write them off: check them out; is a flat-track preference clear in their overall profile, and can you stand by them now?
In fact, following Cheltenham losers is a profitable pursuit. Following Cheltenham winners, and horses placed in the championship races, is a different matter: it’s a problem you will have to resolve at Aintree.
The basic rule about backing horses is that, generally, they are trained for peaks of fitness and performance; so not many can go on to Aintree and repeat what they did at Cheltenham.
Nevertheless there’s a month or so between the two big festivals this time around. In the run-up to the National meeting, I’ll be looking at past results to see in which particular races the double is possible.
Some of those who finished in the ruck at the Festival and are likely to do better at Aintree include:
Balgarry (7th in the Coral Cup): Tried to make all – ridden and headed before the last – and is a Pipe youngster (aged five) sure to find a lowly mark (carried only 10st 5lb at Cheltenham) and scoot home on a conventional track.
Boxer Georg (10th in the Foxhunter Chase): won last year’s Foxhunters at Aintree and expected to do better on the flat track there.
Citizenship (14th County Hurdle): Made late headway but hit two out and weakened on the flat up the hill. Watch out for handicap entries.
Hollow Tree (7th Triumph Hurdle): Led between last two, didn’t get up the hill; Liverpool is his local track.
Grands Crus (4th in the RSA): Never at the races on the Wednesday of the meeting; a different day, a different track.
Meanwhile, you should already have had my ante-post bet on the Grand National (I got Seabass ‘big’ for April 14, I crow; but I also have a ‘nonner’, the injured Backstage) but ante-post on the Lincoln (March 31)? That’s another matter altogether, because of the enigmatic draw factor.
Can you get round it? Is it really that important? Well, though I may pitch something early when the Betdaq lists open, I shall want some real value, with that extra risk factor of the draw.
Look back at trainers’ records. Which trainers target Aintree, as opposed to Cheltenham? Which Flat yards are ready each year for the opening of the season? Which ones target the Lincoln? Does AW form carry over to the turf?
Here’s my schedule in the next week or so, so you know what to expect:
Tomorrow: Check out the update on my results so far this year. What betting ways to expect in the weeks ahead.
Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Weekend racing featuring the Winter Derby on Saturday and classic trialists at The Curragh on Sunday.
Monday: Time for a change. An important step which must be taken to move English racing into the 21st century.
Tuesday: Betting review. How did I do? How did you do? Last year’s Flat and the lessons for 2012.
Wednesday: Lincoln handicap ante-post. Big value required: where can we find it?
Thursday: Horses to follow on the Flat (part one). Look out the following week for more insight into the horses to have on your side at the start of the season.
Friday: Spring Double special: the Grand National.
Saturday week: The Lincoln and other handicap races at Doncaster lend themselves to my value-for-money Betdaq jackpot bets.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY to win 10pts LONESOME BOATMAN and BET 9pts win THE LEMONPIE and 1.4pts win SPINNING WATERS (2.40 Chepstow)
LAY to win 10pts UTOPIAN and 2.8pts win BRIGHT LIGHT (5.35 Fontwell)
BET 5pts win (nap) DIGGER’S MATE (5.25 Chepstow)
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