YET ANOTHER DAQMAN JACKPOT UP IN QUEEN’S PRIZE ONE-TWO: Saturday-king Daqman named Thimaar (WON 4-1) and Gulf Of Naples (2nd 10-3) as his jackpot bets for the Queen’s Prize at Kempton yesterday to bring his current sequence to 19 winners.
7-1 WINNER IS 10.5 BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman made it two Saturday big races out of two at Kempton when he argued that 10.5 on BETDAQ was ‘wrong’ about Captivator (WON 7-1). It brought his profit in two racing days to 60 points.
Sunday quiz: what have these horses in common? Big Zeb, In Compliance, Noble Prince, Shakervilz, Schindlers Hunt and Trafford Lad.
All have been beaten favourites in today’s Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse since the last market leader obliged: nine of the last 10 have flopped.
Such is the task of Flemenstar, although he’s 12lb clear in the ratings: his problem is not weight but carrying a five-month campaign and races won on soft-heavy ground into a fast-run end-of-season chase on a sound surface.
This gold cup doesn’t have the kudos it had when Arkle, Captain Christy and Carvill’s Hill all won it but it is an essential to establish Flemenstar, who has already taken the chase named after Arkle, but the Leopardstown one not the Cheltenham championship.
He swerved Cheltenham for this and landed his fourth consecutive chase, going to Naas a few days earlier, in a three-horse contest which was not worth an ounce (handicapper kept him on 157).
No, we need today’s test to assess him properly: he’s looked good, jumping well out of the mud and beating small fields, but would be ‘a star’ and warrant his hype only if he could capture this and the Punchestown novice championship in three weeks’ time.
In this situation, he’s a Southampton for the underdog Portsmouth to shoot at. But, now for the real Sunday-quiz question: is there anything with the fire power to do so?
The answer is clearly Rathlin, using Aitmatov as your yardstick. Aitmatov was second at a respectful 17 lengths to Rathlin on today’s course in January after running Frisco Depot to a neck over the same CD a little earlier.
Since Frisco Depot was about 16lb behind Flemenstar in that recent Naas race, then – strictly on this one line – Flemenstar is the odd pound behind Rathlin.
It’s only one line. But, when you have a choice between 2.25 Flemenstar and 4.4 Rathlin on BETDAQ, well, in fact, you have no choice: when it comes to ‘back the horse or the value?’, it’s value every time and the form line, the race stats, and the going change, suggest that 2.25 ‘anything’, whatever it’s name, is not value.
Michael Hourigan’s False Economy is on the upgrade but has had only two chases. Hourigan is the only trainer in today’s race to have saddled a previous winner but Mouse Morris (Rathlin) scored twice as a jockey. Mouse believes that the sound surface will suit Rathlin.
Of the Willie Mullins’ pair, Bishopsfurze stays further and is likely to take Flemenstar on but I can’t have RSA third Call The Police at aged nine; 8 out of 10 winners of this are young horses – six to eight – and an older animal winning would tend to condemn the form as moderate, which it clearly isn’t.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.25pts win (nap) RASAMAN (2.50 Musselburgh)
BET 5pts win LEXINGTON BAY, 1pt win and place UNKNOWN REBEL and 3.3pts win (stakes saver) SHUBAAT (3.50 Musselburgh)
BET 5.8pts win RATHLIN (4.30 Fairyhouse)
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