GO FOR IT! 14.5 SCOTTISH NATIONAL OFFER: Daqman, who came so close in the Grand National with second and third at fancy prices, tries another BETDAQ value offer for Saturday’s Scottish version at Ayr.
How’s that for form? Outside Group races, this horse has recorded the following form figures since November 2008 when completing the course: 21111122. His Ayr-only form since then is 2112.
Yes, you’ve got to grab a bit of 14.5 Lie Forrit on BETDAQ in advance of Saturday’s Scottish Grand National on the same Ayr racecourse. He’s been aimed at the race all season and is just the sort of novice lightweight that does well in this particular marathon.
He’s currently 17lb below his best hurdles rating, when he took on the likes of Big Buck’s and, but for jinking two out and unseating when about to score at Aintree, would have landed five in a row up to and including Listed level.
After time off injured, he has taken a steady route through novice chases under one of the jockey finds of the season, Campbell Gillies, and is now ready to show the stamina over fences that he revealed in a 3m 1f hurdles win.
I’ll be looking at the Scottish National stats tomorrow, tempted to find some more BETDAQ ‘overs’, and hoping I don’t get second and third, as I did at Aintree.
As feared, the two-year-old form failed to work out at Leopardstown yesterday but it looked good at Longchamp. Until that is, Christophe Soumillon, tried to be Mr Cheeky..
He looked round five times on Dabirsim, allowing the Morny and Lagardere winner (trading at 1.01 in running) to be caught on the line by Dragon Pulse, who ran second to Ballydoyle’s Power in the National Stakes at The Curragh last backend.
Yesterday’s race wasn’t a handicap and you’re not saving your rating, though of course you don’t want to punish a Classic colt unduly, but looking round like this to see if the washing is dry when you have them all hung out on the line gets your horse unbalanced and unable to change gear if a challenger comes late.
There were no doubts about Beauty Parlour, who also went clear but did not idle in front: maybe because of this win half an hour earlier, Soumillon then got over-confident on Dabirsim. But horses are different; he missed a notable double; and he made many enemies among punters.
The three-year-old trap is set at Windsor today with four consecutive races for second-season animals: guessing what’s trained on, or who has the best bunch of maidens, starts now and goes on until after the Derby.
As for the two-year-olds, guesswork is made easier by the domination season on season – at Windsor and almost every other track south of the Trent – of Richard Hannon’s juveniles.
My rule of thumb is to select on breeding those Hannon youngsters which I expect to win a race, then start backing them from day one. I check out the race for experience and for other potentially precocious animals.
Meringue Pie (2.00), a daughter of Queen’s Pudding, and by a July Cup winner, could easily go in first time. His rival in the betting, Regal Dan, is with Charles Hills who, if he follows his father’s methods, won’t be pushing them hard on the debut.
Of those that have run, Lea Valley Black, who had Fortinbrass and Modern Society behind him at Kempton Park, looks the likely danger. It’s 9.6 bar two as I write, and the 2.7 Meringue Pie in a seeming two-horse race is my idea of value for a Hannon.
If you’re checking out the handicaps, note that, as ever, the Racing Post is all over the place regarding the draw: it’s Windsor Top Draw box points up low numbers as having the best percentage in the mile (4.30) but the Windsor Ten-Year Trends show five wins for High and one for Low.
In fact, this 4.30 has been won four times in the last six years by horses drawn in the three highest stalls and once by the fourth highest.
At this time of year, I look for horses who go well fresh (Odin 17.5 on BETDAQ, drawn 14 of 14) and those who were progressive at the end of last season (Starwatch 15.0 on BETDAQ, drawn 13).
Avonmore Star (5.00) ran his best race first time out in 2011, has been dropped 17lb since then and has been gelded: another Hannon, and the medium of support this morning, in to 5.0 favourite on BETDAQ, allowing a bit of value on the obvious alternative, 7.2 Style And Panache, who ran second six days ago for a stable in form.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 11.7pts win (nap) MERINGUE PIE (2.00 Windsor)
BET 1.4pts win and place STARWATCH, and 1.2pts win and place ODIN (4.30 Windsor)
BET 5pts win AVONMORE STAR and 3.2pts win STYLE AND PANACHE (5.00 Windsor)
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