2,000 GUINEAS ABC: Here’s Daqman’s guide to the leading fancies for the 2,000 Guineas, using the following key to the stats:
A Group winner or placed as a two-year-old (11 out of 12)
B Two wins at two (10 out of 12)
C Had between two and five races at two (11 out of 12)
ABC Abtaal Beat French Fifteen (Group 3) over a mile at Saint-cloud as a two-year-old but the form was reversed when the pair reappeared at Maisons in the Prix Djebel earlier this month, with Abtaal, the even-money favourite beaten a neck.
The American-bred Abtaal is a half-brother to Vacare, a winner of the prestigious Queen Elizabeth 11 Challenge Cup at Keeneland. Look for confirmation on whether Abtaal and French Fifteen will come over to Newmarket but be warned that two in a private duel, finishing so close together, doesn’t suggest a Guineas winner for France, unless the ground is particularly soft.
ABC Camelot The gamble of the year so far, if the bookmakers are to be believed, without setting hoof on a racecourse since October.
The Montjeu colt’s market reputation must be ‘insider information’, hype or real money, or all three, since his standing on form relies on his success in the Racing Post Trophy, which has produced Guineas and Derby flop after flop recently – Crowded House, St Nicholas Abbey and Casamento successively – enhanced by hype because the 2006 winner, Authorized, went on to take the Derby.
ABC Dragon Pulse Represents key form to a whole bunch of Classic contenders, as winner of the Curragh Futurity over Parish Hall, and close second when favourite in the National Stakes to Power.
Then, on his reappearance, in the Prix De Fontainebleau, he short-headed Dabirsim, the odds-on favourite.
But that was a controversial finish, with Dabirsim sent on and seemingly with the race in the bag but with Christophe Soumillon looking round and Dragon Pulse pinching the prize on the post.
ABC Nephrite The son of Pivotal (so likely to need some cut in the ground) spoiled the party when Sea The Stars’ brother, Born To Sea, was regarded as odds on to win a Group 3 at Leopardstown in October and follow up his maiden victory.
But Nephrite, who had won his own maiden in a 24-strong field a month earlier, hadn’t read the script, enjoying his favoured ground and winning at the end of what Raceform described as a ‘scorching gallop’. No fluke then but bitter disappointment at the Curragh on Sunday when beaten soundly into third and now around 500 on BETDAQ.
ABC Parish Hall Shortened for the Guineas after Trumpet Major’s Craven romp on the grounds that he beat the Major into fifth in the Dewhurst last year but trainer Jim Bolger has said: ‘We have always thought of him more as a Derby horse.’
AB French Fifteen As we’ve seen (above) Dabirsim appears to come out top of the French colts but is not in the Newmarket betting, French Fifteen and Abtaal having a private duel (it’s one-all), culminating in French Fifteen’s neck success over his old rival in the Prix Djebel.
AB Power Had a career as a two-year-old so sustained and exposed that it would normally count him out of Guineas contention but he shortened up after the Craven win of Trumpet Major, who was behind him when he was second in the Dewhurst.
Power had won the Marble Hill and the Coventry Stakes before running second in the Phoenix Stakes and accounting for Dragon Pulse in the National Stakes on his way to the Dewhurst, for which he started 15-8 favourite.
AB Trumpet Major Seemed even more exposed at two (eight races) but progressive, winning Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and unlucky (‘lost place’ and ‘interference’) when fifth – around two lengths down – to Parish Hall, Power and Most Improved in the Dewhurst.
Richard Hughes had chosen against him that day and it was Ryan Moore who got the ride when he reappeared, storming home in the Craven Stakes.
Like Dick Turpin, a son of Arakan, he wobbled when he started out in the hoofprints of Canford Cliffs (he was only third in the same Newbury maiden). However, he has clearly wintered exceptionally well and could yet deserve mention in the same breath as his two illustrious ex-stablemates.
AB Caspar Netscher fully exposed in sustained two-year-old career of 10 races but won Gimcrack Stakes and Mill Reef, and picked up where he left off by taking Saturday’s Greenham, albeit in a small field on soft ground.
AC Born To Sea Excuses were made for Sea The Stars’ brother when, after creating the obvious hype by winning his maiden, he was outgunned by Nephrite when odds on in a Group 3 at Leopardstown.
Trainer John Oxx regarded the ground as too soft for the colt to show his turn of foot. He was also found to be lame after the race.
AC Most Improved The Dewhurst third has had almost as much hype as Camelot after trainer Brian Meehan made bullish remarks before the Craven Stakes last week. But minor lameness ruled him out of the race.
– Top Offer son of Dansili, sire of Harbinger, out of a mare by Guineas winner Zafonic, raced only once as a juvenile, easily winning his maiden at Newbury. But Newbury was too wet and windy for his planned re-appearance on Saturday.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 6pts win EXCEL YOURSELF (2.15 Pontefract)
BET 2.5pts win PARISIAN PYRAMID (nap 3.15 Pontefract)
BET 6.8pts win BASSETERRE and 2.5pts win and place NAPOLEON’S MUSE (6.25 Windsor)=
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
