44 POINTS PROFIT ON THE NAP: Gulf Of Naples (WON 8-11) yesterday gave Daqman his third winning nap in the last five for a profit of 44.60. Its price at Ripon shortened after the defection of second-favourite Shubaat.
9-2 WINNER IN BIG-RACE ONE-TWO: Daqman not only tipped Sanctuaire for yesterday’s Celebration Chase NH-season finale but forecast ‘the Tingle Creek and Champion Chase’ for this sensational jumper next season. He gave the Sandown race’s one-two: Sanctuaire (WON 9-2) and Somersby (2nd 11-4).
20 LAYS UP FROM THE LAST 23: It was a case of two winning bets in the same Celebration race, since he also named paper favourite Wishfull Thinking (unplaced 7-2) as a lay, his eighth successful from the last nine. That took his tally to 20 from the last 23.
21 JACKPOT WINNERS FOR 185 POINTS PROFIT: It’s been a celebration all jumps season for Daqman fans, with 21 winning jackpot bets for a profit of 185 points since his sequence began on December 3rd. Now for the Classics and a new Flat sequence..
Expect a Guineas in the mud! The forecasters say it’s going to rain at Newmarket on five of the next six days. That means soft ground. That means a draw bias. And it may also mean the French are tempted to come over.
Would Frankel have scorched up the Rowley Mile a year ago next Saturday had April not been our summer? The ground was good to firm then, as it was the year before, and the year before that for another giant among thoroughbreds, Sea The Stars.
In fact, the going has been returned as ‘good to firm’ for seven of the last 10 years, with ‘good’ for the three other years.
I put these words in quotation marks because racing’s governing body hasn’t yet got round to giving a more accurate measure, nor indeed of sectional timing the races.
Check out that Frankel demolition job at Newmarket last Spring, and you’ll find his overall time for the Guineas was slower than average: ergo, the race time alone is no help, even for a hindsight view of the going.
The last time the word ‘soft’ appeared in the going return (1998), the odds-on favourite, Xaar, got stuffed: only fourth at tips on, 10-11. And the last time the going was soft – 33 years ago – the favourite finished last.
If the best horses are left floundering, or at least unable to show their speed in clinging terrain, which soft-ground colts are likely to come through and steal the prize?
In checking them out, consider also the difficulty for trainers this Spring, trying to bring their horses forward in bad gallops conditions. Won’t it be the case that colts having already had a run will have a distinct fitness advantage?
Abtaal: While the Press has been screaming headlines about Camelot and Top Offer, this likely French raider has climbed into the top five in the BETDAQ ante-post market: 11.5 this morning as I write.
As low as 8-1 with one bookmaker in the many listed on Oddschecker, Abtaal won two two-year-old races on the soft, including a three-lengths defeat of the very smart French Fifteen.
French Fifteen: Just behind Abtaal at 12.5 this morning (8-1 with Corals), French Fifteen met Abtaal again in the Prix Djebel, a major trial at Maisons just over three weeks ago, and this time won by a neck.
Caspar Netscher, trading 33.0, has also raced, also on soft. He won last week’s Greenham at Newbury, the trial taken last year by Frankel.
Dragon Pulse – 45.0 offers – inflicted a first defeat on Dabirsim (allowed to idle in front) in the Prix de Fontainbleau at Longchamp a fortnight ago today.
Watch for news of this pair; as it stands, we don’t expect to see them but the five-day decs could change all that. Remember, Camelot is not even a confirmed runner at this late stage.
Trumpet Major: Newmarket returned ‘good to soft’ when he won the Craven; it was an ‘easy’ surface, though not soft. But he absolutely bolted up and the home defence is relying on him.
Born To Sea and Power: Currently 10.5 and 13.0 respectively, the Irish pair have both won on yielding to soft but neither has been prepped.
Mandaean: A heavy-ground winner in the French two-year-old classic Criterium de Saint-cloud, Mandaean – switched by Godolphin from Andre Fabre to Mahmood Al
Zarooni – is my idea of a Derby horse and the 70.0 offers suggest – though we can’t be sure – that he’ll miss the Guineas.
As for Camelot, progeny statistics show that his sire, Montjeu (by Sadler’s Wells), gets his best percentage return when his sons and daughters run on soft and heavy ground.
But Top Offer’s stallion, Dansili, has had 351 winners on good and good to firm, against 55 on soft and heavy.
Meanwhile, at Longchamp today, on ‘very soft’ ground, expect to see Sagawara (1.30) pass her Epsom and Irish Oaks test.
She ran up to the current glam queen of the fillies’ trialists, Beauty Parlour, on the debut in September.
In the Prix Ganay, Cirrus Des Aigles must continued his fine form, if he is to hold on to his domination of the 10-furlong scene, where Frankel may now perform.
Ballydoyle is sick of seeing his hindquarters, ‘Cirrus’ having seen off their So You Think in last year’s Champion Stakes and having disposed of St Nicholas Abbey in the Sheema Classic at Meydan recently.
Reliable Man is back to the trip which won him the Prix Du Jockey Club but connections are worried about the ground.
No worries about the soft-heavy at Navan for Team Ballydoyle: Cleofila could be a hard nut to crack, but Kissed (3.25), a daughter of Galileo and a close relative of Derby winner Pour Moi, sluiced through the mud on this very course in October.
On a line through Coral Wave, Cleofila is roughly the equal of Homecoming Queen, with whom Aidan O’Brien won the 1,000 Guineas Trial at The Curragh, so he should know where he stands.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double CIRRUS DES AIGLES (2.40 Longchamp) and KISSED (nap, 3.25 Navan).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
