SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between KOLN v DORTMUND, INTER MILAN v ROMA, SEVILLA v ATLETICO MADRID and MALLORCA v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V DORTMUND
2.30pm Domestic football returned with a bang for Friday night football in Europe, and we have a superb Saturday ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have top class action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. I have to say I enjoyed the International break, but you can’t beat club football – especially when we have games like these to enjoy. We start the day in the Bundesliga with Koln hosting Dortmund. As I said in my preview of Friday night football this week, for the time being we have an interesting title race in Germany! Bayern have started the season poorly by their standards, and they have already dropped plenty of points. Dortmund started this weekend sitting three points ahead of them, and they must feel that they can at least get closer to Bayern this season. I still expect Bayern to lift the title, but it would be nice if things got spicy. Koln will be a good challenge for this Dortmund side – they have only lost once this season and although they are drawing plenty of games, they have been playing decent football. That feeling is reflected in the market with Dortmund trading a shade of odds against at the moment – they are 2.04 at the time of writing.
Despite throwing in two poor performances this season in which they ended up losing, Dortmund have been impressive at times. The two losses are obviously very worrying – they only managed xG figures of 0.65 and 0.45 in those games, but if you look at their wins they finished those games with 2.05, 1.02, 2.85, 2.30 and 2.28. Perhaps it’s a case of when they are “on” they are in top form but when they are “off” it’s a bad day. That’s hard to read betting wise, and to be honest Koln have a pretty similar profile. They have thrown in a range of performances from xG figures of only 0.34 to 4.09! I wouldn’t say that home advantage is a big thing for Koln, even though their fans are fantastic. They have managed to stop Dortmund from winning in their last two Bundesliga games here though, and I just wouldn’t get involved at 2.04 on Dortmund here. Nothing screams to lay them either however, so I am happy to look towards the side markets. Both sides have had entertaining games, but I feel Under 2.5 goals looks nice value here at 2.4. Koln have to try and keep things tight here, and Dortmund haven’t exactly been hammering in goals for fun since Erling Haaland left. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-0 win for either side here, and Unders looks a nice play at odds against.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolDor
INTER MILAN V ROMA
5pm What a fixture! We do have Sevilla v Atletico Madrid today too, but this is possibly the highlight of the day! Inter Milan host Roma in a massive clash looking at the table. It’s all change in Italy at the start of the season with Napoli, Atalanta, Udinese and Lazio taking up the top four spots at the moment. Then we have the big names of AC Milan, Roma, Inter and Juventus all trying to play catch up after slow starts. Obviously there isn’t much between the all the sides at the moment, but I have to say we’re going to have a lot of drama in the Serie A title race this season – I can feel it! Last season was so entertaining, and this season looks like it will even top that. If there’s one side that won’t be happy with their performance this season it’s Inter – they start the weekend five points behind the leaders and they have already lost three games. One of those losses came against AC Milan in a tight affair despite five goals between them, but they will be disappointed with the losses to Lazio and Udinese right before the International break. I think the best way to describe Inter at the moment is they just aren’t firing – they have to grind out results and they aren’t creating a huge volume of chances. Roma and Jose Mourinho will see this as a great chance to win here, but whether or not they are good enough is another matter.
It’s clear the market is worried about the early season performances of Inter. They come into this game odds against – currently trading 2.06 at the time of writing – and you wouldn’t be rushing to back them at those odds either. I have to say given the points dropped by the likes of Juventus and the two Milan sides, Roma will be kicking themselves not to be a little higher in the table. They were desperately unlucky to lose against Atalanta before the International break – they lost 1-0 but finished the game with an xG of 2.57. Apart from the Udinese loss, and Udinese seem to be on fire at the moment, they have played some nice football. Look through their xG figures and you will see figures like 2.57, 3.24, 2.48, 2.75 and 2.93. With Inter not really creating a huge volume of chances, there’s a good chance Roma can get a result here. They might not be good enough to win, but they can bag a draw – I feel the 3.7 is worth a small investment on the draw. This is a fascinating fixture to enjoy!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntRma
SEVILLA V ATLETICO MADRID
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga for another cracking fixture as Sevilla host Atletico Madrid. Sevilla have had a terrible start to the season and while I wouldn’t say that they “need to win” this fixture, I would say they need a big morale boost soon. They need to win a big fixture list this. They start the weekend sitting down in 15th with just five points from their opening six games. They had to wait for their first win of the season, but didn’t impress when getting that away to Espanyol and then they were lucky to pick up a draw away to Villarreal prior to the International break. I have to say Sevilla have really opened the door for the competition to take that fourth spot. It seemed like the top four was a lock in La Liga, but they’re going to have to work very hard from here and their performances have been woeful too. When they beat Espanyol they conceded a higher xG figure than they created, and then they conceded an xG of 2.2 in the 1-1 draw against Villarreal. They have been conceding a range of chances and goals this season – Barcelona only scored three here but they finished the game with an xG of 4.81 – it could easily have been 7-0! Despite Sevilla being in poor form, you wouldn’t say this will be plain sailing for Atletico.
The visitors have their own issues to worry about. They have also had a reasonably poor start to the season. Not as bad as Sevilla, but they sit outside the top six with only ten points from their six games. They lost a tight Madrid Derby before the International break, but they were unlucky to lose 2-0 to Villarreal earlier in the season, and they did finish the 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad with an xG of 2.11. They are definitely playing better football than Sevilla, and it’s hard to turn them down at 2.68. I did expect a reasonably open market before I clicked in to see the odds, but it’s hard to get away from Atletico here. I know Sevilla have home advantage and we’ll likely see a very tight and cagey game here, but Sevilla have been so bad this season it’s hard to get away from Atletico at the odds. Sevilla have conceded xG figures of 1.43, 0.62, 2.44, 4.81, 2.75 and 2.20. They have been giving away chances for fun! Their performance level has been so poor, I can’t pass on this Atletico price – they’ll have to grind out a win, but at 2.68 I’m very happy to support Atletico.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Atletico Madrid to beat Sevilla at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevAtl
MALLORCA V BARCELONA
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish a fantastic Saturday as Mallorca host Barcelona. With Sevilla and Atletico Madrid a little off the pace at the start of the season, it looks like the title will be a match between the two big clubs in Spain again! It will be interesting to see can Barcelona live with Real Madrid after they have gone through so many chances over the last year, but the early signs this season are promising. They have been banging in goals for fun lately and putting teams to the sword just like old times. Even in the 2-0 defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League they finished the game with an xG of 2.31 and could hold their heads up high. That was a higher figure than Bayern, and they absolutely didn’t deserve to lose the game. In La Liga they have been absolutely hammering sides. They finished the win over Elche before the International break with an xG of 5.24 – I haven’t seen an xG that high in a while! Their xG figures in La Liga this season read; 2.18, 2.51, 3.68, 4.81, 2.53 and 5.24. Incredibly impressive and when you’re creating that amount of chances – it’s hard to see how they don’t score at some stage! That being said, Rayo Vallecano did manage to grind out a 0-0 draw against Barcelona on the opening weekend but since then nobody in Spain has got even close.
With Mallorca a likely side to be involved in the relegation battle again this season, I feel this is a case of how many goals can Barcelona score rather than will they win. Barcelona are trading 1.35 at the time of writing, and to be honest I expected them to be trading shorter when I clicked into the market. I’m not going to tip up a 1.35 shot because you get no prizes for that, but I couldn’t put anyone off including them in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. They should get the job done here, and the 1.35 does feel too big. Mallorca are a limited side, and although they have had a positive start to the season at their level, they did finish down in 16th last season – only staying up by one point. They have had a good fixture list to start the season – they’ve lost to Real Betis and Real Madrid, but they have played Almeria, Girona and Rayo Vallecano – all sides likely to finish around them this season. I can only see one way traffic here to be honest, and Barcelona can cover the Handicap. The 1.97 on Barcelona -1.5 goals looks a stand out bet here given the amount of chances they have been creating this season. I would be surprised if they couldn’t cover that.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Barcelona -1.5 goals to beat Mallorca at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalBar
