AFTER THE 15-2 NAP A WINNING SUPERNAP: Two days in succession, Daqman has napped the strongest pointers to the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Both naps were staked at 20 points on each, as a Fortune Cookie and a supernap.
WON 15-2 PROTEKTORAT (Fortune Cookie, Saturday nap)
WON 4-9 STATE MAN (Sunday supernap)
POOR FORM FOLLOWS CHELTENHAM BATTLE: A Plus Tard should have been a lay, says Daqman in hindsight after the Gold Cup winner pulled up, 2-1 on, behind Protektorat. His research today on ‘Gold’ medallists since 2012 shows that poor form quickly tarnished many a reputation hard-earned in the battle up the Cheltenham hill.
HOW GOLD CUP MIGHTY ARE FALLEN
See you later. But we’re not necessarily talking A Plus Tard as the name implies, certainly not in the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner’s enclosure. It may even be goodbye after a sad Saturday.
Those of us who did a double-take at his poor run behind Protektorat should check out Gold Cup winners since 2012 and they’ll find that his defeat was no shock at all.
Only Al Boum Photo has done the double (2019-20) in the last 11 renewals; in fact, the nine winners other than ‘Photo’ have hardly left their mark, proving just how exceptional were Denman, Kauto Star and Long Run in the years before that.
Synchronised (2012) form after the Gold Cup: F (fell in the Grand National).
Bobs Worth (2013) form after: 0100P01003; won only one more chase (the Lexus at Leopardstown) and one hurdle; 5th and PU in subsequent Gold Cups.
Lord Windermere (2014) form after 303PP2000FU0; never the same again; PU 2015 Gold Cup.
Coneygree (2015) form after 123PP3UP; won a three-horse chase, ironically called the Future Stars Chase.
Don Cossack (2016) not race again after.
Sizing John (2017) 110F; won the Punchestown Gold Cup and the Punchestown Chase, before form fell away.
Native River (2018) 2341131432P; King George third and Gold Cup 4th twice afterwards but won three Group-2 events in small fields.
Al Boum Photo (2019-20) The exception that proves the rule in that he won two Gold Cups but in the following years was third and then sixth.
Minella Indo (2021): form after 3PP22P; second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
A Plus Tard (2022): no racing until pulled up on Saturday; too bad to be true, said his trainer, Henry De Bromhead. But was it really?
LAYS LOGIC: Excluding Al Boum Photo, seven Cheltenham Gold Cup winners since 2012 won only two more chases afterwards; Sizing John (two chase wins) and Native River (three strikes) partly held their form.
*Form of all Cheltenham Gold Cup winners since 2012 in the race again: 0PP441230.
IT COULD BE PIPE HIDDEN HORSE
⭕ 1.50 Kempton I would be looking to lay the favourite, if I could find one! There have been nine losers at the head of the market in the decade.
But, at BETDAQ 6.0 the field in morning offers, it’s more a race for a place or backing two to win to a fixed-profit yield.
I’ve never known Pond House have such a streak of form since Martin’s day but, as an excellent stable profile showed on TV, David’s team is a lesson for any company trying to make good on a regular basis.
Down a stone since moving from France, Itacare won on heavy at Auteuil and scored at Ludlow in March after a break for wind surgery, still only five. He is one of a six-strong Pipe party at Kempton and Ludlow today.
The other 5yo in this, Island Run steps up in trip; consistent and with the longer distance recommended by his pedigree.
Fugitives Drift and Come On Gruff have both failed at today’s 3m. Mr Yeats has been happy with it, but kept on the go for 12 races this year without a break, finishing them all in the first four.
Good News landed a Spring-and-summer four-timer and has had a run back after a break; now returns to a more appropriate trip but Lydia Richards’ stable hasn’t had a winner for 166 days. It might still be good news today but can you bet it on?
Republican is often thereabouts but his CV now shows just one win from 14 starts. Two against the field:
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.7 Island Run, 18.5 Itacare.
THE GARY MOORE THE MERRIER
⭕ 2.20 Kempton Venetia Williams finally broke her duck with winners Saturday and Sunday; in fact, she now shows 7 out of 10 in the first four in the last three days.
One of the winners was Djelo on his first run after a long break since being bought from France a year ago.
Now here’s Haut Folin, named after the highest point in Burgundy and likely to be a cork popper for the stable.
Again, this one was a winner the last day in France and runs here for the first time, taking in Kempton instead of a nearer-home date at Ffos Las on Friday.
The overnight favourite, Le Cameleon, is out which leaves us another sizeable field with a 6.0 shot fronting the BETDAQ market.
Striking A Pose has won for the Tizzards twice after a break, but the yard is very in-and-out. Take the last three days and you have form of 122010 still standing but you can’t ignore PU three times littered among the last five starts.
Jamie Moore, who won twice on Dorking Lad early in the year, is back on board after the seven-year-old’s reappearance third here at Kempton two weeks back, staying on over an inadequate trip.
He rode three of trainer-dad Gary’s four winners in three days over the weekend. Dorking Lad is one of five Kempton runners in what could be a Moore-the-merrier romp.
Certainly, I shall today be following the stables of Pipe, Williams and Moore in the hope they continue their top form profitably today.
BETDAQ value 5.9 each Dorking Lad and Haut Folin
MIRANDA NAP ON WEIGHTS PULL
⭕ 2.55 Kempton Finally, on a theme of trainers in form, let’s try Paul Nicholls for my naps hat-trick bid.
Paul so shrewdly nipped into the space left by big-name non-runners on Saturday and landed a four-timer, yesterday adding another winning favourite by 16 lengths at Exeter.
What’s interesting about this 3m mares’ hurdle is the collateral form. Last month’s Wetherby (2m) one-two, Molly Ollys Wishes and Martello Sky, meet again, same weights but with a mile further to go.
A year or so back in the same two-miler at Wetherby, Molly Ollys Wishes easily beat Miranda, receiving 2lb that day but now having to give Miranda 4lb over the extra mile because of a Grade-2 penalty, so giving her a six-lengths start.
This is Miranda’s first attempt at 3m but has had a run back on the Flat recently, and Nicholls will not want to blot her form, as Miranda is off to stud once she has another win or two on the CV.
BETDAQ value 2.94 Miranda
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Kempton (win 20)
BET 3pts win ISLAND RUN
BET 1.1pts win ITACARE
2.20 Kempton (win 20)
BET 4pts win DORKING LAD
BET 4pts win HAUT FOLIN
2.55 Kempton (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win MIRANDA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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