TWO OUT OF THREE BUT NO HALLELUJAH: Daqman landed a double in his Daq Multiples trio yesterday with Domtaline (WON 5-4) and Fame And Glory (WON 5-4) but the other one, his nap, Hallelujah (2nd 7-2), ran on too late, beaten a length. Daqman’s current naps record is now three out of four, with best-bet form figures for the last week of 4321112. A tad frustrating.
Value is where you find it. If I could choose again between my three yesterday, knowing their SP, I would go nap on Fame And Glory, forecast odds on, but started 5-4.
Do I hear the usual catcalls about ‘after timing’ – euphemistically ‘hindsight’ – but what else but big, big value is 5-4 against in his prep race about a 9-4 Gold Cup favourite?
Conversely, Hallelujah was 4.9 on Betdaq when I nominated my nap in this column but the equivalent of 4.5 at SP. Inference: not a lot of confidence built up around him. I was expecting around 15-8, if he was the business to complete his spaced-out hat-trick.
You see, the snag with a 4.9 morning offer in what you think is a two-horse, maybe three-horse, race is that it can be one of two things a) value b) an indicator of only moderate confidence in the horse.
The Betdaq punter’s answer is that you follow your bet through: keep tabs on the market throughout the day; if your horse closes in price, you have the option to ‘spend’ some of the ‘overs’ on one of his opponents, or just sit tight; if he shortens dramatically you can bet out, lay him at the shorter odds, potentially making a profit.
If he stays put at the bigger offers, or drifts, then you know you need another bet. Say he closes only a little bit to 4.5; not good enough: your attitude has to be: the ‘book’ of offers is overround at 109 but, when I take out my 4.5 horse (delete around 22%), it becomes underround at 87; what is now the remaining value, betting without that horse?
Of course, if you don’t know it yet, you are starting your day with value all round, in the sense that, whereas bookmakers will be betting early doors to sky-high overrounds, concluding at 114 or 116% at SP, as yesterday at Ripon, Betdaq offers will usually add up to probabilities below 110, often near the ‘round’ 100, sometime during the morning.
A field of about eight or nine runners will often be that way before 9 a.m, witness the 105% for the 3.40 Redcar this morning, as I write. That suggests to me that the favourite, Bedloe’s Island (4.0), will be a closer – shorter at SP – particularly since it is 7.0 bar one at the time of writing.
Of course, the ideal is to find a false favourite. If you can find enough reasons to delete a 7-4 shot from a 106% book, the rest of the field is 70%. There’s a tenner to be had for every seven you bet, if that favourite loses!
There are all sorts of ways of locating this little goldmine, the false favourite. Example: short-priced favourites have a poor record in two-year-old contests at Windsor.
The favourite wins only one in five of the maiden fillies’ stakes tonight (at 6.40); that’s 4-1 against. Yet Miss Diva is 1.96 as I write, marginally worse than even money.
Richard Hannon’s form in the race in the decade is 00021010300032. His favourites in the race have finished 21332. His sole odds-on shot: 3. At best, it’s 4-1 against a Hannon favourite winning.
So it’s 4-1 against any favourite winning; 4-1 against a Hannon favourite winning; yet the filly in question is only even money! In fact, Miss Diva was 5-4 when I first checked her out.
But even that seems bad value against nine animals that are entirely unexposed, never even raced. Or to sum up today’s column – before I shut up and try to find you a nap – which would you rather have (which is value?) the 5-4 a Fame And Glory or 5-4 Miss Diva?
Richard Hannon has another odds-on favourite in the 7.40 called Hairy Rocket, a Pivotal who won on the soft last time out. The filly she beat that day? Miss Diva.
If Miss Diva is beaten at 6.40 tonight, you must consider laying the ‘Hairy’ one in the 7.40, with tactical control in the hands of Mick Channon, doubly engaged in a four-horse race, one of them an Ascot winner.
The odds-on Hannon favourite, was beaten at 5-2 on in this very race last season. They didn’t know it but they were up against a horse which was subsequently placed in the National Stakes, July Stakes and Richmond Stakes.
Hoofnote: If you are going lay horses as a project, stick to short prices, look to lay them over a period for a realistic profit; strike rate required is around 72% with favourites, depending on those prices. I am currently on 20 out of 23 (more about that in the Daqman Library later in the week).
It’s always best to look at the long term: even if we are safe to assume that the Miss Divas of that race at Windsor will lose more often than not, in a series of races she will win at least once (and you will lose).
That win could be tonight! But I have to lay her in this column, if only to avoid the dumbo yells of ‘chicken’ if I don’t.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 3.4pts win AVONLINI (3.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 5.2pts win REMEMBER ROCKY (5.10 Redcar)
BET 4pts win (nap) RED LOVER (6.20 Leicester)
LAY to win 10pts MISS DIVA (6.40 Windsor)
LAY to win 10pts DISPOSITION and 3.3pts win EMIRATES QUEEN (7.10 Windsor)
BET 4.6pts win MOUNTAIN RANGE (8.10 Windsor)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
