SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top games in Europe starting with PSG v LILLE at 12pm. All previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PSG V LILLE
12pm Plenty of interesting fixtures around Europe this Sunday, and we have action from Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s an early start as we kick off the day in Ligue 1 at noon. PSG, despite being five points clear in Ligue 1 at the start of the weekend, seem like a club in crisis. The fans have been going to their training ground to boo the players after a loss to Monaco and a loss in the French Cup. Things got worse during the week as they slipped to a 1-0 defeat here against Bayern Munich, and they really have their hands full in the second leg in Germany. We’ve saw this problem with PSG time and time again, and many managers have had to fall on their sword – basically the criticism of “not winning well enough” and then when they lose its the end of the world! It’s a blow that they are out of the French Cup, but they have another league title in the bag already – we’ll probably see more drama with the fans if they crash out of the Champions League though. It will be interesting to see what kind of XI they name here – they have a little gap to the second leg so I can’t see the reason for resting players. However, the stars were going into that game carrying or only recovering from knocks.
Lille are a top side, they even beat PSG to the title in the 2020/21 season which was a big shock. After a very poor season in 2021/22, they are starting to get back to where they were, but they are still out of the top four. They started the weekend five points behind Lens, and it’s probably unlikely that they’ll finish in the top four this season. PSG come into this game trading 1.65 which on face value is quite high – but they have a huge number of issues, and as always there are rumours of trouble in the dressing room. The major problem with PSG at the moment is outside of the top three up front, who do they have holding the side together? They need to invest in a decent midfield, someone who isn’t flashy but gets the job done – not exactly the PSG way! Lille have been creating some good xG figures this season, and I can see them causing PSG problems. Their average xG created is high at 1.8, and Both Teams To Score looks very nice value at 1.71 to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgLil
UNION BERLIN V SCHALKE
2.30pm Next we go over to the Bundesliga as Union Berlin host Schalke. Union Berlin have been massively over-performing this season in front of goal, but they are making things interesting in the title race at the moment. They start the weekend one point behind Bayern Munich, and although we all expect Bayern Munich to win the title, it would be nice if we could see them under a bit of pressure! If that is to happen, Union Berlin simply have to win games like this – Schalke are having another tough time in the Bundesliga after getting relegated a few season ago, and they are nailed to the bottom of the table again. They have put three 0-0 draws together, so maybe they can get a result here but 0-0 seems to be their best hope of a result at the moment. Their under-lining numbers don’t make for good reading – they are only creating an average xG of 1.2 and conceding an average of 1.7. They aren’t even taking those chances either, their actual figure is only 0.7 goals per game. I know Union Berlin are massively over-performing in front of goal, but they should get the job done here. For example, they are scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game at the moment but their average xG is only 1.1.
Eventually, Union Berlin will stop scoring from crazy angles! We usually see teams in the top four in the big European leagues have an average xG of around 2.0 or close to it. From that point of view, it’s easy to understand why everyone expects Bayern Munich to increase their lead again and it’s also easy to understand why we see a price like 1.62 on Union Berlin here. I have to say, although there are worries about Union Berlin going forward – the 1.62 is ten ticks too big for me. Schalke have shown time and time again that they simply aren’t up to the Bundesliga level. They have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season, and they are bound to give Union plenty of chances here. As I said above, Schalke’s best chance of a result is a 0-0 draw but I can see Union scoring at some stage – they are full of confidence in front of goal after all, and the 1.62 is worth a Max Bet. I feel we’re getting a lot of value here.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Union Berlin to beat Schalke at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniSch
ATLETICO MADRID V ATHLETIC BILBAO
5.30pm We move to La Liga next for the final two games to finish Sunday! We start with Atletico Madrid hosting Athletic Bilbao. Atletico haven’t been at their best this season, and that is reflected in the odds here. The home side are trading odds on at the time of writing – they are currently 2.08. They are hanging onto their place in the top four at the moment, mainly because Real Betis have dropped plenty of points since the World Cup. Atletico now have a four point cushion on Real Betis who are in fifth at the start of the weekend, but there is only six points between themselves and Athletic Bilbao. When you look at Atletico’s under-lining numbers, they aren’t doing anything majorly wrong. However, they aren’t taking their chances and they have under-performed in a lot of games. When you look through their xG figures from their last three games, there is nothing really impressive in there. You get the feeling that they are having to grind out every result rather than blow teams away. Their season is probably summed up by beating Real Valladolid 3-0 and then dropping points against Getafe in their last two home games.
Although most casual football fans would expect Atletico to win here – they are the bigger name after all – Athletic Bilbao have been playing very solid football this season. They have been rock solid at the back, their average xG conceded is only 1.0 this season and they are creating an average of 1.7. They had a very poor run after the World Cup, but they were unlucky at times – they finished games with higher xG figures that they lost – especially at home to Real Madrid for example. They have put two wins together recently, but I would worry a little about them away from home. They have looked much more comfortable with home advantage, and while I fully accept that Atletico haven’t been at their best this season – home advantage feels important here and the 2.08 is a little too big to ignore. I’m keeping stakes limited, but I’m very happy with the 2.08.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Atletico Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlAth
BARCELONA V CADIZ
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish the day as Barcelona host Cadiz. Barcelona come into this game as the red-hot favourites, they are currently trading 1.23 which is one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend. It’s very hard to see past the home win here given the obvious gulf in class between the sides, plus Cadiz have been average away from home this season. They’ve only managed eight point from their ten away games – they actually sat in the relegation zone for a large part of the season, but they’ve managed to win three of their last six games to sit in 16th at the start of the weekend. They are still very much in the relegation battle because they were only two points away from the bottom three. Two of those recent wins came with home advantage, and the other win was away to Valencia who started the weekend sitting in the relegation zone – they have been poor since the World Cup, but they did finish that game with a marginally higher xG figure than Cadiz. Barcelona will probably have one eye on their Europa League second leg against Manchester United next week, but they won’t need to play their best football to win here to be honest.
With Barcelona trading so short in the match odds market, and fully expected to win too, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value here. The first thing to be aware of is what Barcelona do with their team selection – they had a poor attitude to the Europa League last season, but away at Old Trafford with the world watching is surely a fixture they will be very interested in. I wouldn’t be surprised if they opted to rest some players here. Cadiz will more than likely sit back and attempt to play for a draw – I can see Barcelona having a lot of the ball and controlling the game. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.68 which is a little tempting, however Cadiz will struggle to score in my opinion. Their average xG this season is only 1.1, and their low xG figures usually come away from home too. Both Teams Not To Score is 1.68 and that looks the standout bet here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarCad
