THAT SEALS IT: NAP-HAPPY DAQMAN IS THE BEST IN THE BUSINESS: Daqman landed two winners with two bets yesterday through Grey Seal (nap, WON 7-4) and Duke Of Firenze (WON 100-30). That took him to 16 winning bets in the last week.
WHEN THE FAVOURITE WINS HALF THE TIME: Daqman reports today on two meetings together on the same day which can score 50% winning favourites.
There’s a punters’ heaven today. If favourites were guaranteed to win the races 50% of the time, it would be easy to get rich. In fact, so easy that all the layers would go bust and there’d be no more betting.
But that’s more or less the case at this afternoon’s Brighton and Beverley meetings: on today’s card at Beverley, 24 favourites have scored in the previous history of the six events, a total of 46 races in the last nine years.
That’s around 52% but, in fact, five of the winners were joint market leader at SP (you know what the bookies are like for trying to split your stake), so the number of bets required, betting blind on The Favourite, was 51.
Today is also a favourites’ day at Brighton: five won on the equivalent card 12 months ago, and Brighton SP-market leaders overall also have a 50% success rate.
Compare those stats with Newbury tonight: only five favourites have won in the entire history of the events specific to the current raceheads, a total of 40 previous races (which works out at only 12.5% success), and two of those were in the opener.
And, of course, in big handicaps, the favourite may do worse than that: in Saturday’s Pitman’s Derby only about 10% win; in stakes races, favourite ‘hits’ vary and you need to know your race.
For example, in the forthcoming Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, the strike rate levels out over the years at around 10%; but, in the July Cup, backers get it right 33% of the time; and the King George racks up around 70%.
Today, Beverley’s best races for ‘the jolly’ are the opener, with four winners out of the last five, and the claimer with five out of six. But there is a question to be answered before rushing in with your money on any particular race.
Even if you bet blind with a bookie (stipulating that you want to back ‘the favourite’), it’s as well for you to know the answer to this question.
What is going to start favourite at SP (from which statistics are taken)? Is it the one you see before you at the top of the orange on BETDAQ right now?
Or is the current favourite something down the orange list that has taken over the lead – the ‘new favourite’ – or, later on, will something else on the move nudge to the front near the ‘off’?
That leads to another debate. Is it best to back the ‘all-day favourite’ or the ‘new favourite’. The all-day favourite is, clearly, one which is favourite throughout the day, but the new favourite is a usurper of the front of the market.
The new favourite represents a gamble: he was probably only second, third, maybe even fourth in the market in the morning (any bigger – perhaps one of the outsiders – and he is said to be ‘a steamer’).
There’s a whole lesson to be learned here from a computer anorak prepared to assess the three types of ‘favourite’ (yes, three) for each race during each day: the paper (forecast) favourite; the all-day favourite; and the new favourite.
I mentioned this to a computer-dependent professional a couple of years ago. He looked stunned, and replied in the jargon that sets his race apart from we ordinary mortals: ‘Oh flip me!’ (or words to that effect). ‘That could mean going back to the beginning and changing my algorithms.’ Sounds very painful.
While on the subject of favourites, a letter from an old-aged pensioner in Fife is indelibly printed on my memory. Let me read it to you: ‘Wasn’t there a system, famous last century, which showed that backing second favourites is profitable?’
I could have told him that backing second favourites was the same as backing favourites or third favourites, or fourth favourites. In a series or coup of similar odds, there is a built-in bias in favour of the bookmaker (unless you are betting on BETDAQ).
I am also indebted for this answer to Mr ‘Two Birds’ O’Nolan, of Strabane: ‘No, no, no! Backing second favourites wasn’t the system. The one the brother operated was to go to the races and back the second favourite until it won. Then he went home.’
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 7pts win REVELETTE (4.30 Beverley)
BET 6.7pts win (nap) RENEGOTIATE (4.45 Brighton)
BET 10pts win KHIONE and 3.3pts win (stakes saver) SELFSAME (8.35 Newbury)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
