API: After a two-week stretch that saw some exciting golf but also leaderboards that were mostly devoid of the big names, the PGA Tour’s Signature Events have returned, and so have the stars.
This tournament has traditionally drawn a strong field but in years gone by it was because the King would personally call some players and ask them to play. He’s been gone for several years now but the event still bears his name, is held at his golf course, and his shadow looms large over the proceedings (quite literally, in fact). And though he’s no longer making those phone calls, the best players are still coming to his tournament, due in no small part to the $20 million purse, with a whopping $4 million set to go to the champion. With the WGC series now mothballed, these Signature Events are the next-best thing to a major championship. It should be a fun week.
The course will surely be up for the challenge, as 21st century renovations have made Bay Hill an absolute bear. Only once in the past four years has the winner here reached 10-under for the week, and we’ve seen winning scores as high as 5-under (2022) and 4-under (2020) recently. The challenges begin off the tee– narrow fairways lined with long, sticky Bermuda rough, water hazards and bunkers everywhere you turn, and several long par-4s that force most of the field to hit driver. The course now measures over 7,460 yards from the tips, so length off the tee is a definite factor, and if you look at a list of recent champions you’ll see names like Scheffler (’22), DeChambeau (’21), Hatton (’20), and McIlroy (’18), all players who average well over 300 yards per drive. That’s not to say the shorter guys can’t compete at Bay Hill– Francesco Molinari got the job done in 2019, for instance, and last year’s champion Kurt Kitayama is no bomber– but this is mostly a course for big boy ball-strikers, so we want players who can dominate tee-to-green. Comfort on Bermuda greens is also a key factor, and this is one of those tournaments where we always seem to see the same names on the leaderboard every year, so if a guy doesn’t have a good history at Bay Hill, avoid him.
Scottie Scheffler (8.6) and Rory McIlroy (10.5) head BETDAQ’s Win Market, and as is always the case with a field like this, there are some great players with juicy-looking prices next to their names. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Viktor Hovland (21.0)- After a torrid stretch to close out 2023 Hovland has been pretty quiet in 2024, teeing it up only three times in competition. His form seems to be intact, as he’s found the top-25 twice in those three starts, most recently finishing T19 at the Genesis three weeks ago, and now he’s rested and ready for a springtime stretch that, if all goes well, could see him give Scottie Scheffler a run for World No. 1. His length off the tee and precision ball-striking make him a perfect fit for Bay Hill, so the fact that he’s been knocking on the door here recently, finishing 10th in this tournament last year and runner-up in 2022, should surprise no one. He’s absolutely one of the favorites this week, on par with McIlroy and Scheffler in my eyes, but his price is much different than theirs, which makes this an easy decision. Hovland has the game, attitude, experience, and desire. He’ll be tough to beat this week.
Jason Day (43.0)- Day has quietly put together a terrific start to 2024, racking up three top-10s in five starts, including a T9 at the Genesis last time out. He’s been striking the ball beautifully, ranking 12th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, so he should have the confidence to take on a course that has become one of the most demanding ball-striking tests on Tour. Of course, Day has plenty of reasons to be confident at Bay Hill considering he won this tournament in 2016 and has found the top-25 five times, including a T10 last year. It’s been awhile since he’s come into this week playing as well as he is now, and remember– this guy is a 13-time PGA Tour champion. He knows how to get it done. At better than 40/1, I’m more than happy to take my chances on a J-Day Renaissance Win.
Sahith Theegala (98.0)- After a breakthrough year in 2023 Theegala has managed to keep it rolling to start 2024, making the cut in 5 of 6 starts and finding the top-20 three times, including a runner-up at the Sentry and a T5 in Phoenix, another Signature Event with an elite field. He’s proven that he has the game to compete with the big boys on the big stages and he gets another opportunity this week, on a course that seems to be a good fit for his game. Theegala played well here last year, finishing T14, his fifth top-15 on Bermuda greens since 2022. In other words, he should be comfortable this week, on a lot of levels, and despite the strength of the field I think he has a much better chance to win than his price would indicate.
