THE OPEN: The world’s oldest and most storied championship gets underway this week from the coast of Ayrshire in Scotland, a country that is still sobering up from the raucous celebrations that accompanied native son Robert MacIntyre winning the Scottish Open two days ago. This is the year’s final major — the last time we’ll see the best players from all the big tours compete against each other until 2025. Say what you want about LIV and the fracture it’s caused in the sport, but one upshot of the current situation is it makes the majors even more meaningful. This should be a fun week.
Royal Troon Golf Club played host to its first Open 101 years ago and will host the championship for the 10th time this week. It was the site of Henrik Stenson’s memorable duel with Phil Mickelson back in 2016 and it also happens to be the location of the only Open Championship your author has attended in-person… that was way back in 1997, when Justin Leonard prevailed.
Troon is not the type of course that can be overpowered, though it has been lengthened by over 200 yards since 2016 in an effort to keep pace with the modern game. With the firmness of the fairways, though, distance will not be an issue and players will be using irons off of many tees. The goal, as always in the Open, will be to avoid the deep pot bunkers, patchy rough and thick gorse that can ruin a player’s day… perhaps no tournament in the world produces more one-hole meltdowns and disasters. The back nine at Troon is generally regarded as more challenging than the front, with the 10th, 11th, and 12th standing out as a particularly difficult stretch and the long par-4 18th a tough finishing hole. The most famous hole, and the one we’re sure to see on TV most often, is the short par-3 8th, known as the Postage Stamp, a tricky little 123-yard shot to a speck of a green that’s surrounded by imposing bunkers. As we vividly saw with the Mickelson/Stenson duel, Troon is a course that can produce plenty of drama and excitement — it’s not a fight for survival, as there are plenty of birdie opportunities, but it’s demanding and interesting enough to confound the world’s best players and produce a worthy champion. With Turnberry no longer part of the rota, it’s my second-favorite Open Championship venue.
BETDAQ’s Win Market is led by a familiar name, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (7.2), who will be seeking his third victory in his last four starts to continue a run of dominance that hasn’t been seen since prime Tiger. Scheffler has yet to find the top-5 in an Open, but betting against him in any tournament right now takes a leap of faith and maybe some wishful thinking. Placing a bet on Scottie to win that, if cashed, would break you even for the week probably isn’t a bad strategy (I’ve been told…), because he’s probably going to win but we want to chase some odds, don’t we? With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tyrrell Hatton (31.0)- This just might be Hatton’s best shot at an Open — he’s been playing extremely well, finishing 3rd last week at LIV Andalucia and winning the previous LIV stop in Nashville. He’s been around the lead a lot in the Majors this year, finding the top-10 at the Masters and contending at the U.S. Open until a Sunday 77 left him in a tie for 26th, so the change in competitive format from the PGA Tour to LIV doesn’t seem to have had the negative effect on him that it’s had on some other LIV stars. Critically, he’s figured out how to compete at the Open after some struggles early in his career, as he’s found the top-20 in 4 of his last 7 appearances, including each of the past two years. His best Open result was a T5 in 2016, which, you guessed it, happens to be the last time the tournament was held at Royal Troon. Hatton has a great chance this week and should be backed enthusiastically at a price like 30/1.
Tom Kim (50.0)- After a disappointing start to the season Kim has found his form this summer, finishing 4th at the Canadian Open, losing in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers, and then finishing 15th at the Scottish Open last week, where he broke 70 all four rounds and closed with a 64. He should be full of confidence and ready for another week of links golf, particularly with how things went for him at the Open last year, when tied for runner-up in only his second career appearance at the event. Kim is not particularly long off the tee so he sometimes struggles to compete at the “bombers only” courses, but Royal Troon is definitely not such a course, and when distance is not a factor Kim is really dangerous. Don’t be surprised if he makes a run at it this week — this dude has serious game and has been pretty much unflappable under pressure in his young career. He’s worth a bet at this price, for sure.
Corey Conners (82.0)- Though Conners doesn’t have a tremendous record at the Open, finishing no better than 15th in four career starts, his play on links courses has improved over the years and he was in the mix at the Renaissance Club last week before finishing 10th. He’s been rock solid over the past couple of months, finishing no worse than 27th in any of his last eight worldwide starts and picking up three top-10s and five top-15s in that span. Also, Conners is a tremendous wind player — he hits a natural draw and does a great job controlling the trajectory with his irons. Both of his PGA Tour victories have come at the Valero Texas Open, where the wind is always blowing and scores are generally high. So, if the weather gets nasty when the pressure turns up this weekend, Conners is one to watch. He’s a terrific value at better than 80/1.
