RA! DAQMAN LANDS HIS NAP AT 15-8: Daqman followers soon new the fate of his nap yesterday, when he landed the opener at Musselburgh with Raheeba (WON 15-8).
THE BENEFIT OF BETDAQ: In a ‘new readers start here’ type of article today, Daqman stresses the value of exchange betting. ‘Trust the Daq’ he says, calling it one of the ‘easy lessons’ in the hard task of punting for winners.
Are you at odds with yourself as a punter? Are you one of those who complain about short prices, but at the same time curse the long-odds bets you have because they rarely win?
There are two hard lessons in punting: the first is that you are not looking for the winner, you are looking for the value bet. Value alone wins in the long run.
The second is that value may be found at a short price, just as much as in long odds. Equally, therefore, bad value may be found at a big price just as much as at odds-on.
The search for value is to find the ‘wrong’ price, offers bigger than they should be, and to avoid the bad deal, where the odds on the table are shorter than they should be.
Betdaq Tips can give you a sequence of short-priced winners; it is your job to decide whether they are backable, value-wise, when you scan the offers in the orange.
Betdaq Tips may give you big-priced winners; it is the same task you have: are they worth backing or are they big odds because they do not have big chances?
Only consistent tipping success should suggest to you that, short or long, Betdaq Tips have been looking at the overall view. That overall view must always be: short odds or big, there are enough winners (at Betdaq offers) for a long-term value strategy to work.
There are other criteria: level stakes, step-up stakes, doubling up, the 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 method; in fact, all sorts of staking systems. But you must begin with a basic overall-value strategy.
Take this simplistic view: if you bet on 7-1 shots with a bookie all the time, you can have six losers and only one winner, and finish in front by a point at level stakes. Maybe.
But look deeper and you find that the bookie ‘overrounds’ the probability total of his prices, adding them up so that he pays out less than he takes in.
So his 7-1 shots don’t give you 7-1 value but something less than that, depending on whether he is overround by 107% or 123% (the long and the short of it at Musselburgh at SP yesterday). In the bookie’s scheme of things you could, in effect, be getting only 5-1 in terms of value, not the seeming 7-1.
Wouldn’t it be so much better if you could reverse that trend: back every 5-1 shot at 7-1, so ‘getting value’ and improving your overall returns.
That way round, if you aim for a one-point profit, for which you need one winner in five, you make three points because you got 7-1.
It’s hard work punting with bookies if you are plotting to get yourself 7-1 about 5-1 shots; it means, in effect, that you have to successfully discard favourites, so that the probabilities swing in your favour.
On Betdaq, whether you back Shamrock’s short-odds winning sequences, or Daqman’s longer-priced jackpot coups, you have a massive swing in your favour from the start.
The Shamrock and Daqman successes are given the next day at SP. But that very SP contains the bookies’ punitive overround.
So, in fact, when we give you those returns, we are being harsh on ourselves, advertising our winners in, for the most part, the worst-case scenario.
You could most likely have had vastly better offers on Betdaq in the morning and leading up to the race. Yes, says Disgruntled of Market Deeping, but if we haven’t time to compare prices, and we don’t know the art of ‘pricing up’ how do we know where the value is, how do we know it’s ‘better on Betdaq?’
Trust the Daq. That’s the simple answer. Offers are not better prices once or twice, one meeting or two. They are better consistently. In fact, I will rewrite this article with a new second paragraph.
“There are two hard lessons and one easy lesson in punting.’ The easy lesson? Check out the bookies’ fixed odds and compare them with Betdaq offers, every day, every race (and check out the Shamrock and Betdaq results against those morning offers).
I’ve headlined some (just scan down the recent Archive): I got 8.6 Grafelli on Sunday when he won at 9-4. I got 11.0 Danedream when she won at 9-1. I got 2.8 Springinherstep when the mare won at 4-6.
How do you know you are in a value scenario, a punter-friendly race, on Betdaq? Because you are told the total probability at the top of every orange list: time and again, you will get races at 102% in the morning.
Of course, not all my 8.6, 11.0 and 2.8 Betdaq bets win. But as we have seen with our ‘5-1 and 7-1’ example, if you can get those prices when the SP is 9-4, 9-1 and 4-6, you are on that value trail which leads to overall success.
And if the offers look shorter than they should be? What do you do then? Well, once again, while bookie punters have to live with bad offers and suffer the massive take-out, you have the benefit of Betdaq.
You can bet against them winning. Be a bookie yourself and oppose the favourite or anything else you consider a bad offer. Lay them, my son, lay them!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.8pts win (nap) LOST IN PARIS (3.30 Catterick)
BET 2pts win and place GO ANNIE (3.50 Worcester)
BET 10pts win JACOB CATS (8.05 Sandown)
BET 2.7pts win LILY IN PINK (8.20 Leicester)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
