LAYERS ‘LOST’ AS DAQMAN GRABS BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: When Daqman wrote about value yesterday, he proved his point, following Tuesday’s nap, Raheeba (WON 15-8), with Lost In Paris (WON 5-2), home by a whisker but a BETDAQ winner by a mile, taken at morning offers of 4.4.
THREE WINNERS OUT OF FOUR: It was a stunning day for Daqman as he hit three winners from four bets – the other one, backed win and place, was second – for 61 points profit on the day.
IN THE PINK AT 9-2: His winners included massive BETDAQ value with Lily In Pink (WON 9-2 from 8.4) and he had a double-figure bet (a 10-pointer) on Jacob Cats (WON 15-8).
Trainers are creatures of habit. They target a successful race again and again, comparing what was needed to win it with what material they’ve got at home.
John Dunlop and Andrew Balding have shared five of the last nine winners of the Young Stayers Handicap (2.30 Sandown), always at SPs of 5-1 or shorter.
Dunlop is having a poor season but Mubaraza (7.2 on BETDAQ as I write) has Paul Hanagan booked in the hope that he can go on from his Newmarket success in June.
Mysterious Man appeals more, and should be favourite: he’s the wrong price at 6.8 after being in the frame to, successively, a Group-2 and a Group-3 winner, and then scoring in his own right at Bath.
A big horse who has needed time, he at last steps up to a suitable trip, related as he is on the dam’s side to a top-class hurdler and an Ascot Gold Cup winner.
The morning favourite, Bridgehampton, has won only a class-5 handicap: while the stats say that no previous winner in the last 10 years had already scored at the class-3 level of today’s race, none have won below 8st 6lb.
The last five had all scored or been second already over the 14-furlong trip, which recommends Winner’s Wish and Beyond Conceit. But I’ll stick with a stable that farms the race and take Mysterious Man.
The fillies’ Listed (3.05) is another race for three-year-olds, and they are even less exposed: eight of the 10 have run only once or twice.
Amazonas and Savanna La Mar were put up as paper favourites but Rayaheen has taken over as market leader on BETDAQ as I write, and ‘Savanna’ is unwanted, a lonely dog on a raft, drifted to 10.5, even though Sir Mark Prescott is two from three in the race – including subsequent French Oaks winner Confidential Lady – and three of his last four runners this week have won.
It’s a question of whether Amazonas can hold up Group-race form (fourth on soft at Royal Ascot) against those taking the big leap from maiden success (Go Angelica, Mollyvator, Rayaheen, Savanna La Mar).
But it’s plain to see that Amazonas, Rayaheen and Savanna La Mar are the trio expected to do well; they have a splurge of Group entries.
You just wonder about ‘Savanna’ on the ground; she’s dirt-bred and her dam’s sire is Pivotal, noted for getting soft-ground performers. I’d prefer the Cape Cross (Amazonas) and the Nayef (Rayaheen), as the ground gets faster and faster.
The Hannon camp is bullish about Rayaheen, who has been working well and they’ve even started mentioning her in the same sentence as her dam, Natagora, the Cheveley Park and 1,000 Guineas winner. Paul Hanagan booked.
Charles Hill has chosen Epsom for Moodhill (7.40) from three engagements – also in at Ascot and Salisbury on Saturday – with this turning 7f certain to suit a front-runner, particularly from stall 4.
Back to the ‘trainers are creatures of habit’ idea, the best bet at Doncaster seems to be Perfect Step (7.50) for Roger Varian, who won the race last year with his first runner.
I’ll have a pound on first-time-in-a-handicap Azerodegree (8.55) while, at Leopardstown, I must play up my winnings on Grafelli (6.15), while the ground remains soft in his favour.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win MYSTERIOUS MAN (2.30 Sandown)
BET 10pts win (nap) RAYAHEEN (3.05 Sandown)
BET 3.5pts win MOODHILL (7.40 Epsom)
BET 2.7pts win AZERODEGREE (8.55 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double GRAFELLI (6.15 Leopardstown) and PERFECT STEP (7.50 Doncaster), and 1pt win treble with Rayaheen (3.05 Sandown)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level or as special bets in Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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