DAQMAN’S NEWMARKET PREVIEWS: Daqman opens his previews of the Newmarket Cesarewitch meeting (Friday and Saturday) by picking his way through the labyrinth of two-year-old form and ratings in time for the Dewhurst: ‘Shadow Over The Favourite.” Tomorrow: the Cesarewitch.
232 TIPPING HICCUP.. An interruption to Daqman’s winning run cost him 14 points yesterday but still left him 176.76 in profit after a weekend of winners which included 25-1 and 11-2 strikes. His Tuesday returns were 232.
SHADOW OVER THE FAVOURITE
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket, Saturday (Dewhurst Stakes) The last three Dewhursts have had favourites rated well clear of the rest of the field; all three won and all three went on to win Classics: City of Troy 118 (Aidan O’Brien), Chaldean (Andrew Balding) 115, Native Trail (Charlie Appleby) 122.
But, though one horse dominates the market this year, he is not even top rated, and there are five in the race off winnable marks, if those last three are anything to go by.
116 The Lion In Winter (O’Brien) The same stable’s 115 Camille Pissarro, winner of the Lagardere at the weekend, won’t run and Expanded, another winner last week, is doubtful. But Ballydoyle still has (on 103 each) Aftermath and Rock Of Cashel .
119 Shadow Of Light (Appleby) is also supported by a stable second-string: 114 Ancient Truth, second favourite for the Guineas. The field is completed by 112 Seagulls Eleven (Hugo Palmer).
The ratings anomaly is because Lion In Winter won only a Group 3, the Acomb at York, whereas Shadow Of Light won the Group-1 Middle Park, readily turning over the odds-on Whistlejacket (for O’Brien), winner of the Group-1 Morny.
Whistlejacket had gone into the Middle Park on 115 but was beaten four lengths, with the handicapper seeing fit to raise Shadow Of Light 11lb but drop Whistlejacket a pound to 114, now level peggings with Ancient Truth.
That way, Whistlejacket slipped a pound behind Camille Pissarro, who beat Rashabar (112 at the time) in the Lagardere.
This juvenile jigsaw is up to date if you now include the Morny result in which Whistlejacket beat Rashabar threeparts of a length.
So the favourite for the 2,000 Guineas and Derby – The Lion In Winter – is bad value for the Dewhurst and bad value for the Classics unless he can prove himself on Saturday.
SPARKLING IN THE MUD
⭕ 1.45 Nottingham There was plenty of speculation on social media last night that Nottingham could have been abandoned given the amount of rain that was falling but as it turns out it’s ‘only’ heavy in places.
It’s sure to be a slog anyway so I’m firmly looking at the soft ground specialists. Many A Year was heading the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market but his form in testing conditions is not that convincing. Three starts ago he only beat two home in a similar class event at Thirsk when it was heavy having never got competitive at any stage.
Diamondsinthesand is probably the percentage call. He’s running consistently well at this level, trip and ground and two starts won on heavy at Ffos Las which is deep as it gets without being called off!
Whilst he’s not likely to improve, it might just be a case of him running his race and the experienced Millie Wonnacott takes off a handy 3lb.
IS IT A CRACKER?
⭕ 3.58 Sedgefield Cawthorne Cracker looks the proverbial penalty kick here on the back of his easy course and distance win at the start of the month which came in a conditional riders race so he escapes a penalty.
The concern for short odds backers is that his win was on good – whereas it’s good to soft today with more rain forecast at Sedgefield. The BBC Weather app are forecasting rain throughout the day.
It tempers enthusiasm for me. His three career wins have come on good to firm and twice on good and the only previous time he has run on soft (if it gets that bad) he was pulled up.
If you are playing at short odds (and possible odds-on) is that a risk you really want to be taking?
There were five non runners at 11am with leaves the perfect eight for place betting purposes and I prefer the chance of Asa for a 123 finish. The mare has limited but more convincing form on soft (was third on debut in France on very soft) and arrives in good form for her attempt over a much shorter trip than she has been running over of late.
The change in ew terms prompts a switch to the Betdaq Sportsbook for an ‘old fashioned’ each bet at 8/1.
MOUNTAIN FOR CHALK TO CLIMB
⭕ 7.15 Kempton With the exception of the Gosden’s Detain, who bids to follow up on his impressive debut success here in the 5.15, this looks an ultra-competitive card down at Sunbury.
A sporting nap choice is Upscale to finally halt the winning run of Chalk Mountain who bids for a four-timer after wins at Southwell, Wolverhampton and here at Kempton. Up another 5lb he can’t be completely dismissed.
Upscale showed her strongest form to date when second on her handicap debut here and is very much capable of winning off a mark just 1lb higher.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 2.0pts win DIAMONDSINTHESAND
3.58 Sedgefield (staked as below on Sportsbook)
BET 2.5pts each way ASA at 8/1
7.15 Kempton (win 20, nap)
BET 4.0pts win UPSCALE
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