JUMP TO IT IN THE CESAREWITCH: National Hunt trainers and horses have taken over the Cesarewitch. Daqman checks out those who fit the bill for Saturday’s race.
HEAVY FOR THE LISTED AT BATH: There’s a special Listed race at Bath today but the ground is likely to be heavy. Ayr and Southwell also provide a bet.
CESAREWITCH: LEADING JUMPERS
BLAME Nicky Henderson. And Martin Pipe, too. These jumps yards spotted that, at a time when they were readying for the winter season, they could prepare older horses to bag the big late-season Flat handicap.
So it was that, from the turn of the century, Heroes Fatal (Pipe, aged 6), Miss Fara (Pipe, 7), Landing Light (Henderson 8) and Caracciola (Henderson 11) turned the Cesarewitch into winter oats for jumpers.
Philip Hobbs (2014) joined in; so, too, Alan King (2015). But then the Irish cottoned on; and, in the last six seasons, winners have been trained by Willie Mullins (3), Emmet Mullins, Charles Byrnes and, not to be outdone, Henderson was back with a Buzz in 2012.
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch) STATS: So it is that only three winners below the age of six have been recorded in the last 10 seasons, where from 1973 to 1990 there were none older than five.
Alongside the dominance of NH stables, the weight carried by winners (1979 to 1991) was only one ABOVE 8st 8lbs but (between 2018 and 2023) only one was BELOW 8st 8lb.
There has also been a change in the draw trend, too: 15, 23, 24, 13, 20, 20 were winners by stall from 2015 to 2020. But the last three years the winner has been drawn 6, 9, 3. Jumps horses running in Saturday’s Cesarewitch:
🏇 SEA OF SANDS (Willie Mullins, aged 6) Group-3 Flat success in Germany; switched to Mullins after break of more than two years and won 2m hurdle (y/soft) at Listowel 17 days ago.
🏇 JACOVEC CANYON (Emmet Mullins, 5) Ran in Grade-1 hurdles last Spring; switched to Emmet Mullins from Paul Hennessy in July and second (2m) in a Galway Festival handicap.
🏇 NDAAWI (Gordon Elliott, 4) Ran in Group races and handicaps on the Flat, and winner of Naas maiden hurdle when switched to Elliott last December; third Boodles juvenile hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and runner-up Grade-3 Galway Hurdle to Nurburgring, who was beaten two lengths in the Irish Cesarewitch.
🏇 THE SHUNTER (Emmet Mullins, 11) Won this race last year during hurdles and chase career; won the Greatwood Hurdle 2020 and Grade-3 chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival
🏇 DAWN RISING (Joseph O’Brien, 7) Won a Grade-3 novice hurdle in late autumn of 2022 and ran against Kyprios twice on the Flat this year.
🏇 RUN FOR OSCAR (Charles Byrnes, 9) Four hurdles wins since 2020; won the Cesarewitch in 2022.
🏇 SAMUI (Gordon Elliott, 5) Flat and hurdles wins all on good or firm ground.
🏇 FALCON EIGHT (Dermot Weld, 9) Won Group 3 on heavy and hurdle on yielding.
🏇 MAGELLAN STRAIT (Joseph O’Brien, 5) Won Irish Cesarewitch 2023; placed three hurdles
FAIRY IS ANOTHER BECKETT
⭕ 3.10 Bath, today (Beckford Stakes) As trainers and breeders look to the final month of the season to hopefully trap some black type for their young fillies and mares, you get this really solid race of 90-100 sorts.
Add a £36k winners prize and you have a decent crowd in the stands and another decent crowd in the trainers’ enclosure!
Team Gosden, William Haggas, Hugo Palmer, Mark Johnson, Andrew Balding and even Joseph O’Brien have saddled the winner of this, four aged three and three aged four among the eight successful.
You wonder if Nicky Henderson’s NINE-year-old Marie’s Rock doesn’t belong to my previous story, the one about jumpers in the Cesarewitch!
Incredibly, the mare made her debut on the Flat at York in May, less than four lengths off the winner in the Bronte Cup Stakes, which is Group 3, so her prospects can’t be denied a grade lower here today, particularly on the heavy ground. She’s won four times on soft.
You can just hear N. Henderson saying ‘why not’ to this, remembering that last December Marie’s Rock was made favourite for the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in early December but, without a prep race, was beaten five lengths or more by Dashel Drasher.
Marie’s Rock running here would be better prepared for another tilt at the Newbury prize, made easier by Dashel Drasher’s preference for the Native River Chase at Chepstow on Saturday.
As for today’s winner, Forest Fairy must be in at the business end: bred for heavy ground and trainer Ralph Beckett can do no wrong with fillies. Loughville has won for Alan King on soft.
But Entrancement has won four times on soft or heavy for another yard on top of the world, David Menuisier’s. Oisin Murphy booked.
Betdaq Betting Exchange5.1 Forest Fairy, 7.4 Entrancement
ROCK OPERA DROP IN CLASS
⭕ 3.25 Ayr Be Proud beat stablemate Abduction by a length and a quarter in this sprint last year, but that was on heavy ground; he is 6lb worse off and Abduction has the better draw in 2, with Be Proud in 10.
Jim Goldie has tried to match up the pair by putting a 3lb claimer on be Proud but Paul Mulrennan is worth that much on Abduction, who wins on good ground. The partnership was beaten a neck here over 7f on the last day. BETDAQ 9.1.
They could name an unsaddling spot for Mythical Phoenix ‘place reserved for the second’ after his run of 22222 from firm to heavy, three times favourite, including here at Ayr. The sequence has cost him a 7lb rise.
Today sees a marked drop in class for Almarada Prince, down 7lb since the Spring, but he’s only ever won as novice.
The more likely winner down in grade is Rock Opera, drawn 5, winner at Doncaster (class 4, beat Mythical Phoenix), third in the York Dash (class 2). Needs the rain to stay away. BETDAQ 11.0.
COOL PARTY HAS HOT PACE
⭕ 8.00 Southwell Cool Party has made all here over this trip and Charlie Johnston knows how to prepare them to turn a 1m 6f race into a 6f dash!
Across Earth fails to settle so could buckle under the pace. The one staying on should be Wahraan.
Wahraan is a bit of a monkey but, on his best behaviour, would go close on his third when Cesarewitch contender Warmonger was second here in August.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Bath (win 20)
BET 5pts win FOREST FAIRY
BET 3pts win ENTRANCEMENT
3.25 Ayr (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ABDUCTION
BET 2pts win ROCK OPERA
8.00 Southwell (win 20, nap)
BET 6pts win COOL PARTY
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