NFL WEEK 6: We’re through five weeks of the NFL season, enough time to form some opinions on these teams that are rooted in results and data. Look around the league, and what do we find? Well, in the AFC it’s business as usual — the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are the only undefeated team in the conference, while the other three divisions are shaping up just as most predicted: Bills in the East, Ravens in the North, Texans in the South. Ho-hum.
The NFC, on the other hand, is experiencing a tectonic shift — either that, or it’s just been a really screwy start to the season. The Minnesota Vikings, a team that was roundly picked to finish last in the NFC North after losing top-10 pick and projected starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy to injury prior to the season, are undefeated at 5-0 with journeyman Sam Darnold as their QB. An even bigger surprise is what’s happening in Washington: after what seems like decades of failure and futility, the Commies have struck gold with rookie QB Jayden Daniels and are currently sitting atop the NFC East at 4-1. Who saw that coming? Meanwhile, the NFC West, the division that has been the toughest in the conference for much of the past decade, doesn’t have a single team with a winning record, and with the barrage of injuries that continue to plague the 49ers I’m not sure the West is going to produce a legitimate contender this year.
You’ve got to adjust to new realities quickly in the NFL, and if you don’t, prepare to get burned — last week was a bloodbath for me personally and for followers of this column, so if that’s you, my apologies. Of course, if you’re one of those poor souls that likes to oppose sensible folks on contrarian grounds, you got your fill last week but prepare for some hard times ahead. At least, I sure hope that’s the case…
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (CHI -1, 44.5) *LONDON*
Recommendation: Jacksonville moneyline (to win) at 2.03
It’s back to London this week for another early game, this time featuring the No. 1 pick in April’s draft and his surprising Chicago Bears. Incredibly, this is the first time the Bears have been favored in a game outside of Chicago since 2021, and they are a heavy public choice this week after back-to-back wins over the Rams and Panthers. But I’ll let you in on a little secret here: this team is an impostor. The Bears are not, in fact, a good team, and will almost surely finish the season with a losing record. The offense is erratic and disjointed due to a poor offensive line, Caleb Williams looks panicked and rushed several times per game, leading to errant throws and turnovers, and the defense has been able to pad the stat sheet against some of the worst offenses in the NFL over the past month. The Jags, conversely, are better than their 1-4 record would indicate, and the experience and success they’ve had in London should pay dividends against a Chicago team making its first trip across the pond. Trevor Lawrence and the offense finally came alive last week, with Lawrence throwing for a career high 371 yards in a win over Indianapolis. I expect him to outplay his counterpart Williams here and lead the Jags to their second win of the season.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -9.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Philadelphia -9.5 at 1.94
Despite it being early in the season, last week’s bye came at a good time for an Eagles team that has been hit hard by the injury bug. The offense was unrecognizable in their last game, a 33-16 loss to Tampa Bay, but the bye has given them some extra time to heal, and this week Jalen Hurts should just about have his full complement of weapons, with star receiver A.J. Brown set to play for the first time since Week 1 and his fellow starting wideout DeVonta Smith also returning to action after sustaining a concussion in Week 3. The Cleveland defense employs more single-high safety looks than perhaps any unit in the league, so Hurts will have some opportunities downfield in this one. The Browns offense, meanwhile, is an unmitigated disaster, with big money QB Deshaun Watson as the focal point and primary culprit. Watson has been either the worst or second-worst quarterback in the league this season (shout out Bryce Young!) according to almost every conceivable metric, and when you watch him play, he just looks like he doesn’t want to be out there. The Browns have a capable backup in Jameis Winston, but the franchise still owes Watson more than $200 million (!), so they’re sticking with him for the time being. It’s ugly, though, and will only get uglier, starting with the butt-whooping they’re about to take in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (TB -3.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay -3.5 at 2.01
I’ll be honest: this is not one of the games that first caught my eye when I saw the lines for this week, but the more digging I do, the more scenarios I play out in my head, the more confident I become in the Tampa side here. After a promising start the Saints have dropped three straight, and in their last one, a Monday night loss to the Chiefs, starting QB Derek Carr was injured (oblique). Carr will be sidelined for this game, which means rookie Spencer Rattler will be making his first NFL start, a sentence that should send chills down the spine of any Saints fan. Not only is Rattler a rookie, but he wasn’t particularly good in college at either one of his stops. After losing the starting job at Oklahoma he transferred to South Carolina, leading the Gamecocks to a 5-7 record last year while dinking and dunking all the way, ranking 113th out of 125 NCAA quarterbacks with 6.9 air yards per attempt (which means he never, ever threw the ball downfield). We can expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara in this game, but the Bucs defense is surely aware of that, and you can be sure they’ll be loading the box and daring Rattler to throw it. The Baker Mayfield-led Tampa offense has been mostly effective this season, ranking 8th in the league with 25.4 points per game, and the Saints defense can be exploited in the secondary. This is a tough spot for the home team — gimme the Bucs.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants (CIN -3.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -3.5 at 1.95
The Giants surprised everyone when they went out to Seattle last week, minus top receiver Malik Nabers and starting RB Devin Singletary, and upset the Seahawks as 7-point underdogs. It’s led some people to take a long look at the G-Men in this spot, as home dogs against a 1-4 Cincinnati team that has been among the league’s biggest disappointments this season. The Bengals defense simply hasn’t been able to stop anybody, but what has generally been a great cure for ailing defenses? Well, a game against Daniel Jones and the Giants might qualify, considering the utter hopelessness of the New York offense throughout most of Jones’s tenure as starting QB. I get it — the Giants moved the ball last week, put up 29 points, and now they return home with some momentum and another bad defense next on the schedule. Keep in mind, though, that this is still a unit that ranks 27th in the NFL in points scored, averaging just 17.8 per game, while this week’s opponent, Cincinnati, has one of the most explosive offenses in the league, putting up 28 points per game and ranking second in the AFC in passing yards. Can this plodding Giants offense really keep up with Joe Burrow and the high-flying Bengals? No, I don’t believe they can.
